Making Sense From Noise

SARS Covid-19 has been the subject of much news, Twitter posts, Facebook posts, official announcements, misinformation, speculation, foreign government and political posturing. This led to various groups popping up claiming only they have the ‘true’ information, often followed by ads for cures with doubtful benefits. This is not a ‘Doomsday’ prediction! Optimistic about 3-5 years out.

This pandemic has been a science nightmare and evidence of caring people trying any treatment they can think of to save lives. Quarantines, Stay Home orders, physical distancing, and drugs developed for other diseases. So many first responders, doctors, nurses, aides, and other professionals have been running to help solve this issue. However this makes cures harder to scientifically verify.

Not helpful were China hiding initial information, WHO mismanaging information and research, western governments unprepared and underestimating risk, and everyone trying to blame someone else to cover their missteps. Typical human behaviors.

Facts have been able to discern:

1.     Highly Contagious Virus. First appeared like a Flu but more contagious. No one has immunity since new novel coronavirus.

2.     People are spreading Cvid-19 with no symptoms or before symptoms are obvious. Pattern about week before symptoms, if serious may be hospitalized for week to a month. Then patients need rehabilitation to return home.

3.     Apparently mutated in Italy becoming more dangerous.

4.     More serious for people with compromised immune systems and older patients. However seeing people of all ages infected and dying. Latest study over 75 patients under 15 with unusual conditions.

5.     Appears to be natural source like SARS, MERS and many other diseases. One person from a lab would not cause a widespread breakout compared to thousands out in nature interacting with animals everyday.

6.     If you had it, because of future mutations you may not be immune. Similar to the common cold some us catch every year or so.

7.     Vaccines may take a year, several years, or never be successful. Treatments are likely to rapidly improve results due to experimentation.

Likely will happen:

1.     Curing Covid-19 will take longer than predicted.

2.     Tremendous medical progress results in new treatments and preventions.

3.     Social Distancing will tend to weaken because we get overconfident, or miss family and friends too much. Children in school likely spread disease.

4.     Breakouts will be local and fast spreading all over the world.

5.     Negative effects on global economy will last longer than most people think. Also expect higher taxes to pay for debt over next decade.

6.     There will be some permanent changes in consumer and business behaviors. Remote work will be much more widespread. 

7.     Expect business travel and vacation travel to return over a few years. Both have been important to growing economies.

8.     Unemployment will partially recover quickly as service businesses reopen. However lots of jobs will permanently be gone. Will take several years for creating new jobs to replace missing jobs.

9.     Distrust of other countries will rise. Competition between China, Europe, United States and other countries will trim global trade.

Based on facts and observations, expect we are in for one or two hard years. Beyond that we are going to see great technical progress, new medical discoveries, and global economies growing worldwide over the rest of the decade.

Short term:

1.     Stay healthy by following basics until risks are reduced.

2.     Stay in touch with family and friends. Joy and laughter improve health.

3.     Reduce unnecessary spending for a year or two until your career is secure.

4.     If you are still working, increase your emergency funds and consider delaying retirement. If not working find taxi jobs and educate yourself.

5.     If your job is secure, around fall and winter there will be wonderful deals for homes and autos.

We have adapted and thrived through worse disruptions throughout history. Don’t underestimate resourcefulness, learning and growth. Long term we will benefit from these disruptions. Maintain your faith, and know God is in charge.

Volunteer to Grow

What is not obvious is the growth that comes from being a volunteer.

Got a nice compliment from a friend after our 7^th annual Chilifest. Was tired and cleanup was wrapping, so time to go. Paul said he really appreciated how I volunteer because I do so much.

Admit being a little embarrassed in front of the other volunteers. What I did that night was not that important. Helped set up tables, got people registered and to their table, made coffee, carried things, got ice and cooked hot dogs for the kids. Nothing other people don’t do.

Dawns later, was important talking with contestants, guests, kids and volunteers to make sure everyone had a good time. Probably what stood out.

Been volunteering for a long time. Giving blood, helping organize, grunt work, picking up trash, taking money, making name tags, inviting speakers, introducing people, and making (small) donations. Not special.

However have grown from young self-centered to thinking about others. Have gone from doing it myself to being part of a community. Went from shy to social. Met great people and continue to meet community & business leaders. Even considered a leader by others. Not intentional, just happened.

How to do it? Just show up, and be willing to do something. Am willing to wash dishes or serve anyone. Act like a host/hostess. Do something you haven’t done before. Be awkward. Let someone show you. Kids can be the best teachers.

Volunteers are not experts and don’t do this everyday. Nor do the people being helped expect perfection. We joke about things being messed up, because you get the help you pay for.

The best thing is not to do something and then leave. The most important thing you can do is meet people and let them know you care. Growth comes from caring.

"Embrace fear, insecurity and uncertainty as the doorways of opportunity that they are." 

- Jenny Blake, author “Pivot: The Only Move That Matters Is Your Next One”

Beginning Investing

7 hard earned lessons to use

There are all sorts of people who want to give you investment advice, aka sell you something. Why? So they can earn a commission or profit from you investing with them.

Experienced in life and a former business owner/appraiser. Have nothing to sell you and not giving hot stock tips. Frankly happy to be a full time employee now, but would like to start a second business.

Do Not consider myself a great investor, definitely am Not a day trader and my predictions are average. Have learned from hard knocks.

These are good advice and rules I have learned over the years:

1) Spend Much Less than You Make

Wealthy people often lived for free or on 10% of earnings to save enough to start a business. They did this for years to get started. The wealthiest people I know often drive old cars and wear clothes too long. They only owe on their business assets, and their home may even be paid off.

2) Have a Rainy Day Fund

You don’t know when you or family will be ill, have a major repair to your home or car, be laid off, fired or the business shuts down. Have paid 6 months of bills from savings to get through. Have enough for 1 year’s worth of bills outside my retirement accounts.

3) Start Investing Small

Put money in the company 401K, especially if offered matching funds. I started at 8% on my current job and increased the percentage with every raise. If had more income would save more.

Second don’t buy one investment with all your money. Only invest some on each idea. Often start with a third and see if it is working.

4) Learn Value before You Buy

My best investment has been my house. Being a real estate professional identified good neighborhoods first, then found houses to look at. Originally wanted a 2 - 4 family house to live in, but prices were much higher than the cash flow justified.  Was cheaper to buy a single family house.

Bought at the bottom of the real estate market when few would consider buying, and bought a working short sale 10% under market value. Yes it took 6 months to close. But bought for 2/3 of original owner’s price.

My house is worth 60% more 4 years later.

5) Diversify Investments

Have good savings in cash at bank. Much more in 401K, and equity in my home. Have paid off 30% of the mortgage in 4 years. Goal is to pay off mortgage before retirement.

Am not adverse to holding cash. Especially when stocks, bonds and real estate seem over priced. Can be patient until a new opportunity shows up.

Cash is a safe refuge when the market is going down for an extended period. There will always be recessions in normal economies.

Am willing to sell and sit out the drop until the market starts rising again. Just don’t stay out forever. Look for the opportunity to get back in.

6) Do Not Pile in Late to a Trend

There have been good ideas I have missed. However did not compound the problem by buying at a high prices hoping some fool comes along to pay more. Would wait for a pullback and buy at a better price. Or would just wait for the next opportunity.

The secret to successful investing is buying at the right price. Not necessarily when everyone else thinks it is a good idea.

Beware the phases “This time it is different” (it is not) and “_____ always goes up” (no, they drop too). One investment made by my advisor is a non-dividend stock that is actually losing money. The commodity is way under trend and the company is doing a good job improving productivity. The market is too busy overpaying for dividend stocks to see the value. My advisor wants to be positioned for the future recovery and is looking for the opposite of the late trend.

7) Educate Yourself

Best investment is good books and classes. Pay to take classes out of my pocket to further my career and knowledge. Does not have to be for a degree either.

Find people or groups who invest in what you are interested in. You can learn a lot from like minded people.

These tips are not all you need to know. In fact am still learning, and hope you can teach me something too. However they will make the rough seas of investing smoother if you are humble enough to apply them.

The Greatest Time to be Living

Been hearing negative statements over and over recently. Gold Bugs and Preppers believe the world is falling apart. Each political party blames the other during election years for everything and anything.

You may hear:

• ·      Times are tough.
• ·      The economy is weakening.
• ·      Jobs are being eliminate or sent to _____
• ·      Society will fail.
• ·      Currencies are going to fall.
• ·      There will be chaos.

 “Pessimism narrows our focus, whereas positive emotions widen our attention and our receptiveness to the new and unexpected.”

– Daniel Goleman

There have always been hard times, new illnesses, conflicts, wars, poverty, and innocent people starving. Even Jesus said, “You will always have the poor”.

The truth is today is the best time to be living and tomorrow will be better:

• ·      More food is grown on less land than ever.
• ·      Medical science is conquering cancer, heart disease, aging, and developing therapies to rebuild our bodies.
• ·      Computers grow faster, smaller and double in memory every year or two.
• ·      Our phones have more computing power than the mainframes I was taught on in college.
• ·      Knowledge has gone from stored on paper to abundantly spread all over the Internet.

 Nothing goes forward in a simple, straight manner. Innovation and progress are marked with false starts, failures, crashes and disasters. But we learn and keep improving daily.

Today and tomorrow will still be inconvenient, difficult, and dangerous. But tomorrow will also be better.

“Gratitude is riches. Complaint is poverty.”

– Doris Day

Be a Better You

"Be at war with your vices; at peace with your neighbors, and let every New Year find you a better man." - Benjamin Franklin

Everyone would like to improve. Why else do we make New Years resolutions? We want to make more money, get promoted, lose weight or find the love of our life.

Instead of making very general resolutions that will fail in the first weeks, choose what you will succeed at. That is right, you are going to succeed.

How do I know this works? Have done it. Who else do you know planned to lose 10 pounds, and lost 16? Successfully lost weight and kept it off for years.

Lets Get Started

Start writing a list of desires.  Where do you want your life to be better? Get paper now.

Why do you want to improve this part of your life? Write down all the reasons.

What values & beliefs of yours support these ideas/resolutions? Write them down.

What values & beliefs hold you back? If you think wealth makes you an evil and mean, you will sabotage your efforts. Write down the values/beliefs why you can’t do it. Are they true? I really doubt it. There will be difficulties, but nothing you can’t work around or overcome. Your talent and hard work will be rewarded.

Now comes the hard part. Which resolution is no. 1?  You need to put them in order.  Which resolution is most important to your values and actions?

Then you pick. Preferably choose only 1 resolution, but no more than 3. May be one major and a minor one? You choose which goals to succeed at.

Now start planning how you will succeed at your first resolution. What steps are necessary for you to consider your experience a success? What can you start today? Focus on what you control.

Repeat if you are working on a second resolution.

Why It Works

Focusing on a few goals, and creating actions you follow get faster results. The more you value a goal, the harder you will work to succeed at your resolution.

Writing it down is another reason for success. Write the goal as if it has already happened. Write the actions as if the past and you did them already. You mind will follow you.

The results may take longer or be less than expected. Sticking with it gets results.

Results

Weight loss, was it easy? No. Did I fail at times? Yes, of course. But I stuck with it.

Was technically not fat, just at the higher end of my healthy weight range. However was not playing volleyball 4 times a week nor weightlifting. Sitting around let me gain weight. Just did not feel good physically. Motivation included Dad getting Adult Onset Diabetes. Taking care of myself could prevent that.

 My plan was rather simple. I gained weight one pound at a time. Losing it was going to be the same. Skipped the diet and went immediately to a maintenance plan. Less carbs, smaller portions, more exercise, and add some healthy foods. Did not give up any foods I loved, just limited how much I ate them.

Another secret, allowed myself one cheat day per week. Still could go for cake at a birthday, donut on Sunday, or restaurant meal. Spread them out by dieting 6 days a week.

Results: 16 pounds lost in 18 months. You have heard the last 10 pounds is the hardest to lose? That was my whole goal. Weight did not fall off easy. But have maintained the gain 5 years by making a permanent change.

Second did go through unemployment and find a new job while losing weight. Succeeding at one goal supported working towards another goal.

Follow Thru

Lots of people think they have to be perfect to accomplish anything. Not true. Every plan will have setbacks and make adjustments. Your plan must allow for changes, celebrations and vacations.

People think focusing on one or few changes, the other goals will not happen. Truth is by focusing you complete goals faster. Success motivates you to start the other goals expecting to succeed.

Pick your most valuable goal, and write down your plan. Then adapt and adjust your plan until you succeed.

Following this plan myself. Will let you know how I make out. Let me know how your plan worked for you.

A very happy New Year to you, your friends and family.

Spotting Dying Businesses

Do you want to know if your company is dying? Yes for two reasons:

One, you can intervene in the issue and improve your teams results. This puts you in a leader’s role with the resulting salary.

Two, you can be the first to find a new company to work with.  There are advantages knowing what you have to do and having enough time to start the process before you lose your salary, or experience the heartbreak of closing a company.

What are symptoms of a dying company?

1. Not Knowing Who the Customer Is

Big companies love processes. They are good because processes build quality controls and guarantee stable returns on effort. However your customer is not your co-worker who gets handed the work after you are done. He is a partner in satisfying the real customer who chooses and pays for your product & services.

Successful companies fall in love with their customers and dive deeply into their customer’s businesses. That way the company is focus outward, not inward.

2. Not Staying Up with the Times

Stable companies often have the belief their customers won’t change. They have always bought from us and will not leave. That is not true.

Customers retire, go out of business, or die. Businesses are run by people, and people always change.

Second technology changes. Eastman Kodak did not want to kill the film business, which brought in fortunes. The marketing failure was not realizing they could make more profits licensing their technology. Do you realize they could have had a Kodak Camera in every cell phone?

3. Not Creating New Products & Services

Unless 10% to 25% of your sales are new products and services less than 5 years old, your future is looking bleak. Mature products have to fund new investments to stay successful. What percentage of your sales are new products?

4. Illegal Business Practices
Bernie Madoff Ponzi schemes.  Double sets of accounting books. Inside trading. Bribes. Stealing secrets. Drug habits.

Any one of these practices can result in jail time, customers abandoning you, and being unemployable. Time to find new work now, even with a pay cut.

Check on a regular cycle how you and your company are doing. The only constant in life is change. Make sure you are doing everything you can to adapt and thrive.