What Will Change Your Mind?

Political Anti Vax hard core in denial need not read this. Focused on reasonable people who think for themselves. People who have based their identity on political talking points aren’t listening or thinking facts and results. 

Covid is not going away. The other coronavirus known as the common cold has been with us over 100 years and finds ways to mutate around human defenses. Same with flus which breakout worldwide every year. Humans are too good of hosts not to spread diseases.

 

If you haven’t had Covid or a vaccine, you will catch it. If you catch Covid, you will spread it to loved ones.

 

Coronaviruses are transmitted by breathing them in. The viral load primarily attacks your nose and lungs. All it takes is walking by someone contagious, who may not feel it yet. My car is stuck in the garage over a week so far because everyone in the garage and the owner’s wife caught Covid the week before. One exposure spread to nine coworkers and their families. The latest variants affect all ages. My grandnieces and grandnephew ages 5 to 14 have had it.

 

We resist changing for fear. Look at all the unknowns. None of us lived in a pandemic before. No one wants to make a mistake.

 

The 5^th wave in WA state where the breakout started, and 4^th wave in LA where now working are proving how well vaccines work. ~99% of hospitalizations and deaths are the unvaccinated. Vaccinated and people who had Covid before can still be reinfected, but viral loads are less and they recover much faster. Over 1 billion people have safely been vaccinated. Another 1 billion have their first shots.

 

~10% of unvaccinated people who have caught Covid are hospitalized. ~1% die either from Covid or combined with existing conditions. Side effects of catching Covid may include reduced oxygen to body and brain, loss of physical abilities, not being to exercise, brain fog, impotence and incontinence. Some Long Termers may have these conditions permanently.  

 

Quarantining, masks and contact tracing are somewhat effective in limiting breakouts in countries that applied them. However they have not stopped the disease from returning. The only working solution is vaccines.

 

There are side effects to vaccines. Most of us feel our immune systems working similar to being sick. You likely will have a fever and be tired 12-36 hours afterwards. A rare number have permanent burning or hot metal smells/tastes afterwards. However you can’t catch Covid from a vaccine. The long term effects of vaccines have been studied and will finish approval cycle.

 

We need to spread vaccines worldwide. Is the only way to contain this disease. Too many people are dying until we can lower costs and ramp up production and distribution. Only 14.5% of the world’s population is fully vaccinated and another 13.7% have received one dose. Three quarters of the world’s population will likely catch Covid and breed new variants. Recommend British, Indian, Soviet and US vaccines. Some Chinese vaccines have been much less effective or had manufacturing quality problems. Would take what vaccine is available now, and look into better ones later.

 

"Superior leaders are willing to admit a mistake and cut their losses. Be willing to admit that you've changed your mind. Don't persist when the original decision turns out to be a poor one."  - Brian Tracy

Vaccines are Seat Belts and Airbags of Medicine

 Accidents happen every day. Small dings, fender benders, rear enders, and the major accidents with hospital trips or death. Seat belts and air bags are ready to save your body and life, and reduced travel deaths extensively since being mandated in 1968. 

 

Vaccines get your body ready for an attack by known diseases. Exposing your immune system to a deactivated / weakened bacteria or viruses, your body trains to fight these diseases. You create antibodies to fight the disease in the future.

 

Vaccines are very effective. Smallpox has been eliminated by vaccines. Old enough to remember classmates who had polio and measles permanently affecting them. My father almost died at 13 from whooping cough. CDC lists 14 diseases people forget about because success of vaccines. You are likely alive today because you were vaccinated as a child.

 

Airbags were invented because people were resistant to wearing seat belts, being crippled or dying. Before being required by law in most states, compliance was about 14% in 1983. Now see ~90% compliance. Airbags work more effectively with seat belt usage. Millions of people are alive and not crippled because of seat belts and air bags.

 

SARS Covid 19 causes blood clots, and attacking organs including brain, circulatory, heart, lungs, digestive and reproductive systems. Highly contagious, you can catch from anyone. Kills ~1-2% of infected people. ~10% have long term affects to their organs lasting for months or permanently. Not just a serious flu like originally thought. 3,291,489 deaths to date are likely under reported due to lack of testing. You are more likely to catch Covid than be in a car accident.

 

Was in ‘wait and see’ category to see if there are any problems with new vaccines. January switched to encouraging everyone to get vaccinated because of the data proves safe and effective. What is the alternative? More disabilities and deaths.

 

Encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Copy or share. We want to save lives.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html

 

 

Coronavirus Update

 Back in March was living 13 miles from 1^st breakout in Kirkland WA, and wrote about early Covid-19 info and research last May “Making Sense from Noise”. Unfortunately became political which is not the way to solve contagious diseases. Updating known facts below:

• Covid-19 is not a flu. Attacks nasal passages, lungs, blood circulation, organs, brain and more. 
• New and novel, no one has resistance. Everyone can catch Covid-19. Friends from teenagers to 84 (being careful) still caught it. Paraphrasing Matthew, rain falls on the just and the unjust. 
• Highly contagious causing local breakouts.  If you haven’t caught it, you are just lucky. Everyone in your circle has their circle and on. All it takes is one infection to spread through groups. 
• Transmission mostly aerosols in air. Less likely to get from touching surfaces.
• New variations are being discovered. These mutations are normal since another corona virus, the common cold has been around for centuries overcoming immunity.
• More contagious variations have been found in Brittan, South Africa, South America, and California. By summer these will be dominant strains. Local breakouts hit R3 which is very dangerous. R3 = each infected person infects 3 others.
• Wide ranges how people are affected by Covid-19. Possibly 2 of 3 don’t realize they have it. Others wind up hospitalized or on ventilators. Of known cases, the death rate has been ~3%.
• Recovered does not mean healthy. ~10% of serious cases have extend symptoms including reduced breathing ability, weakened physical shape, brain fog, and painful symptoms.
• 6 feet and 10 minutes are not magical protections. You can get infected further and faster.

 

Staying healthy

• Mask up, they work. Flu rates have fallen worldwide this year. Must cover your nose! 3 layers of cloth or disposables help reduce infections. KN-95 and fitted N-95 are gold standards.
• Try to keep your hands off your face. (My weakness) Can transfer aerosols to yourself.
• Frequent hand washing, especially before eating.
• Treatments are improving, and early intervention is helpful.
• Vaccines are effective, and people who said they weren’t going to take them are signing up.
• Even if you had Covid-19 you need a vaccine to resist other variations.
• Social interactions, phone and video calls help mental health. 
• Get treatment if you are suffering from depression or other symptoms. Earlier the better.
• Avoid eating indoors, avoid large groups, avoid group singing, and limit being unmasked even if vaccinated. Anyone can be a carrier.

 

Rates have been falling lately. New cures are coming for the infected. The rollout of vaccines has been slower than desired. Seeing improvements, up to ~100,000 vaccinations per week here in Louisiana. 

 

The biggest issue is corona fatigue. Exercise, meditate, pray, express yourself, avoid inundating yourself, and stay social despite physically distances. “This too shall pass” has gotten me through other crises.

 

Stats from Worldometers.info very informative worldwide.

Workers Can’t Afford to Thrive

Before the SARS Covid-19 Scourge there were lot of lousy jobs out there. Mostly service and retail jobs. Now lots of delivery jobs out there. These jobs do not pay enough for the middle class to thrive even with a $15/hour minimum wage. Both parents have to work or people have multiple jobs to pay bills.

Brookings Institute research “found that 53 million Americans between the ages of 18 to 64—accounting for 44% of all workers—qualify as “low-wage.” Their median hourly wages are $10.22, and median annual earnings are about $18,000.” 26% of low-wage workers (14 million people) are the only earners in their families, getting by on median annual earnings of about $20,000.

Lots of our neighbors, family and friends are laid off, furloughed or out of work. The current U6 unemployment rate including discouraged and part time workers looking for full time in April 2020 is 22.80%. 36.5 million workers have filed for unemployment. More people have lost one of several jobs and well under the poverty line.

The Manhattan Institute created a Cost of Thriving Index for the Middle Class. Rather than complicated inflation adjustments, it measured the cost of renting 40th percentile 3 bedroom home, car ownership, annual family medical insurance, and one semester of public college. These expenses are divided by median middle class weekly salaries.  This determines how many weeks of work to cover expenses.

Results: In 1985, the average male worked 30 weeks to cover expenses. In 2018 salaries declined compared to expenses requiring 53 weeks. Women had it worse. In 1985 took 45 weeks to cover expenses. In 2018 required 66 weeks of work. Neither situation works for a single parent.

Is there any wonder people do not feel better off? Neither political party has been successful improving the life of workers. Both parties have failed the electorate.

Add in a significantly reduced global economy post Covid-19, we are looking at people needing help in large numbers. The federal, state and local governments are seeing drastically reduced tax revenues which will add to the issue.

Some Republicans in DC are suggesting to reduce SNAP aka “food stamps” benefits in a pandemic. Are they GIVING the election to Joe Biden? Registered Republican here NOT voting for anyone supporting this horrible idea of starving vulnerable people.

Do not have a magic wand to make this go away. We are going to have to make tough choices and look for changes to help everyone thrive.

References below:
Why the ‘great’ jobs market was always an illusion
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-great-jobs-market-was-always-an-illusion-2020-05-14?mod=home-page

Why the average male can no longer cover basic expenses for his family
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/average-male-earnings-basic-expenses

The Cost-of-Thriving Index: Reevaluating the Prosperity of the American Family
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/reevaluating-prosperity-of-american-family
report
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/the-cost-of-thriving-index-OC.pdf

Making Sense From Noise

SARS Covid-19 has been the subject of much news, Twitter posts, Facebook posts, official announcements, misinformation, speculation, foreign government and political posturing. This led to various groups popping up claiming only they have the ‘true’ information, often followed by ads for cures with doubtful benefits. This is not a ‘Doomsday’ prediction! Optimistic about 3-5 years out.

This pandemic has been a science nightmare and evidence of caring people trying any treatment they can think of to save lives. Quarantines, Stay Home orders, physical distancing, and drugs developed for other diseases. So many first responders, doctors, nurses, aides, and other professionals have been running to help solve this issue. However this makes cures harder to scientifically verify.

Not helpful were China hiding initial information, WHO mismanaging information and research, western governments unprepared and underestimating risk, and everyone trying to blame someone else to cover their missteps. Typical human behaviors.

Facts have been able to discern:

1.     Highly Contagious Virus. First appeared like a Flu but more contagious. No one has immunity since new novel coronavirus.

2.     People are spreading Cvid-19 with no symptoms or before symptoms are obvious. Pattern about week before symptoms, if serious may be hospitalized for week to a month. Then patients need rehabilitation to return home.

3.     Apparently mutated in Italy becoming more dangerous.

4.     More serious for people with compromised immune systems and older patients. However seeing people of all ages infected and dying. Latest study over 75 patients under 15 with unusual conditions.

5.     Appears to be natural source like SARS, MERS and many other diseases. One person from a lab would not cause a widespread breakout compared to thousands out in nature interacting with animals everyday.

6.     If you had it, because of future mutations you may not be immune. Similar to the common cold some us catch every year or so.

7.     Vaccines may take a year, several years, or never be successful. Treatments are likely to rapidly improve results due to experimentation.

Likely will happen:

1.     Curing Covid-19 will take longer than predicted.

2.     Tremendous medical progress results in new treatments and preventions.

3.     Social Distancing will tend to weaken because we get overconfident, or miss family and friends too much. Children in school likely spread disease.

4.     Breakouts will be local and fast spreading all over the world.

5.     Negative effects on global economy will last longer than most people think. Also expect higher taxes to pay for debt over next decade.

6.     There will be some permanent changes in consumer and business behaviors. Remote work will be much more widespread. 

7.     Expect business travel and vacation travel to return over a few years. Both have been important to growing economies.

8.     Unemployment will partially recover quickly as service businesses reopen. However lots of jobs will permanently be gone. Will take several years for creating new jobs to replace missing jobs.

9.     Distrust of other countries will rise. Competition between China, Europe, United States and other countries will trim global trade.

Based on facts and observations, expect we are in for one or two hard years. Beyond that we are going to see great technical progress, new medical discoveries, and global economies growing worldwide over the rest of the decade.

Short term:

1.     Stay healthy by following basics until risks are reduced.

2.     Stay in touch with family and friends. Joy and laughter improve health.

3.     Reduce unnecessary spending for a year or two until your career is secure.

4.     If you are still working, increase your emergency funds and consider delaying retirement. If not working find taxi jobs and educate yourself.

5.     If your job is secure, around fall and winter there will be wonderful deals for homes and autos.

We have adapted and thrived through worse disruptions throughout history. Don’t underestimate resourcefulness, learning and growth. Long term we will benefit from these disruptions. Maintain your faith, and know God is in charge.

Corona Virus Will Pass Too

‘This Too Shall Pass’ got me through many hard times. Will get us through SARS Covid-19.

Feels weird - schools closed, restaurants closed, stores closed, movies closed, social distancing, no sports, church on Facebook, shelter in place, and working from home. Today was my first day of many to come. Usually talking with coworkers and mechanics. Now have the window office on grandpa’s ~100 year old rolltop desk.

Over 200 deaths, 15,000 confirmed cases and probably 150,000 unconfirmed. No one knows really. Pandemics are really scary. Staying safe is important, especially if your immune system is weakened.

Humans have survived world wars, other pandemics, famines, the industrial revolution, computers, and so far social media. We can shelter in place or quarantine ourselves for a few weeks. Next year this will be over. God is still in charge.

Use the time to plan that vacation. Read a good book or rent a movie. Better yet, call your family and friends. Run errands or go shopping for neighbors or relatives. Donate blood. Kindness rules.