Showing posts with label complex problems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label complex problems. Show all posts

October 14, 2017

Causes for Gun Violence


1. Untreated mental health issues - over half of mass shooters suspected.
2. Suicides - 2/3rds of all gun related deaths. (See #1)
3. Gun cultures - Gangsters, drug dealers, crime, drug addicts, western history, military, hunters, competitive shooters. - Licensed gun owners rarely involved in crime.
4. Fighting culture. US participation in wars / defending other countries.
5. SWAT police - expansion of raiding homes by force.
6. Violence in movies and videos.
7. Belief problems are taken care of by an individual. Often causes conflicts.
8. Access to guns. If ~800,000 Michigan Hunters were considered an army, they would be the 6th largest standing army in the world.
9. Lack of safety education. More people now have no exposure to gun safety. Shooting was a high school sport.
This is a complex problem that cannot be solved simply by changing laws. Extensive regulation has not stopped criminals from accessing guns. In countries that banned most gun ownership, the suicide rate did not go down. Mass shooters have legally acquired most guns used.
Mental health, drug addiction, and suicide prevention would be best place to start intervention. Intervention, conflict resolution, and mental health treatments need to be priorities.
A long look at our mix of cultures and education is another discussion.

July 29, 2017

Complex Problems

The hell of complex problems is the more you dig into details, the more likely you are going to find conflicts that are near impossible to resolve. No one alone can make all the right choices for everyone else.

You won’t make the right choice for me. And don’t let me choose for you unless you like pepperoni & mushroom pizza, with coffee ice cream for dessert. My choices don’t fit your taste buds. We are different, and expect others will make different choices. President Trump was not the predicted results of the election.

Complex problems have no simple solutions. ISIS, world peace, drug use, discrimination, gun violence, health care, and North Korea are examples. Whatever ideas you propose will have consequences, and different than expected results.

John Lott was an academic researcher who was convinced gun laws would reduce crime. He set up detailed research to prove it. However he found the data did not support his theory. The cities that banned guns had much more crime. Instead the best way to reduce crime was “Shall Issue Carry Permits” laws for citizen. Citizens with permits do not commit crimes, and carry permits allow them to protect themselves. More Guns, Less Crime is his book if you want to learn more.

Issues like North Korea have no good answers. They have prepared for war for over 50 years. Little technology or ways to pressure the country exist. Many weapons are hidden. South Korea and other nearby countries will be bombed if there was an invasion. Which choice is less worse may be the best answer.

Start with research and an open mind on complex problems. Invite others to bring up more viewpoints and questions. Go find assumptions that were not broken out. Keep digging and test what really improves the situation. What else has been overlooked? The solutions often will be an odd combinations of changes.

Compromise and collaboration are difficult. Does not mean we should not try. But don't expect immediate results. We will fail first before we succeed.


May 6, 2017

Health Care Reform

Reforming health care now goes to the Senate. More than likely the Senate will make major revisions to the House plan, or may even come up with a totally different plan.

My advise to the Senate: Focus on the Patients, since every family will be affected. The best care for costs will be the second goal. The US does spend more than other countries and get less care.

Issues:
1) The Affordable Care Act is going Bankrupt. State health care co-ops are failing. Only 7 of 23 co-ops remain and they are losing money. $1.7 Billion in federal loans that will not be paid as of 2016
2) Coverage costs are rising quickly and insurance companies are dropping out. Heard of someone making ~$24,000 per year, their coverage would cost ~$7,000 per year. Who can afford that much?
3) Lack of Cost Controls. Especially prescription medicines.
4) Legal costs. Malpractice insurance for doctors and hospitals range from 15% to 25% of health care expenses. Jury awards are out of control.
5) End of Life Care. Almost everyone will be bedridden needing assistance or a nursing home for the last months or years. What about dementia care?
6) Coverage Limits will Fail. Some patients live longer than their coverage. Taxpayers will wind up covering that.
7) Consumer driven health care is a good theory. Whole Foods has had success with it. However some patients will need more than they saved in some severe cases. Who will pick up the tab?
8) Patients with severe issues or dementia will not be able to make their own choices. Who will advocate for them?

Health care is a complex problem, which can only be managed. It is too complicated to have a simple solution. The best ideas need to focus on patients and getting the best care for the cost.


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