Rebuilding Our Economy

When businesses go back to work, they will not need all former employees depending on the industry. Possibly 1 in 5 people will be out of work.

Before the pandemic the middle class was already suffering. 44% of workers are low wage with median incomes of $10.22/hour ($18,000/year) and 3 of 5 are the only earner in their families. They are scrapping by or working multiple jobs to support their families.

The way to grow the US economy is focusing on helping the middle and lower classes. Big businesses cannot employ everyone out of work. State and Local governments are low on funds. Most new jobs will be created by small and one person entrepreneurial businesses. Incentives, aid and opportunities must be aimed here to grow wealth and consumer spending.

Remove Red Tape

Simplify creating, registering and licensing businesses. Takes significant time just to get started. That time is needed to find customers and do work.

Collect Income Taxes and Social Security Weekly

Self employed income varies wildly when and how much you earn. Currently payments are made quarterly. When self employed had to guess withholding high every quarter to avoid penalties. Difficult for people with little savings. Collect weekly and calculate how much. 90%+ of people file standard deduction taxes. Modern computer networks can calculate this easily.

Give Incentives to Work

If you work part time on unemployment, you lose 100% of your benefits for every dollar earned. Social Security only cuts 50% above $1,470 per month. The more often someone work, the more motivation and skills to earn more.

Incentives for Hiring Full Time

Businesses prefer part time because they don’t have to pay benefits. Find a way to fix that.

Health Care for Self Employed

Very expensive middle and older workers. Typical is $500-$1,000 per month. Find a public-private partnership to insure blocks of workers. Medical illness causes ~2 of 3 bankruptcies. Everyone needs to be covered.

How to Pay

Income taxes will have to increase. Capital gains should increase and the definition should go back to investments over 3 years.  Neither of those is enough. A consumption (VAT) tax will be necessary like most other countries do. BTW ‘Tax the Rich’ is a fantasy, however they should get less deductions under current tax rates.

Rebuilding the economy is complex task. Too much spending or debt may break the system or value of the dollar. Compromise and stepping up to challenges is what is needed. Write your congressmen and senators.

Fixing Healthcare

We all know healthcare is a mess. Medicare and Obamacare are going broke. Veterans health system is in disarray. 50 million people do not have insurance. Warren Buffet (Democrat) and Charlie Munger (Republican) agree we need a new system covering everyone.

How about a proven solution? One where incentives are for our benefit. Laurence Kotlikoff, economist professor and syndicated columnist, proposes adopting a German style system. Not socialized medicine with bureaucracies. Not a wild west system either.

Companies are paid based on the health status of each company’s clientele. Plans are offered for the whole country only, and cover pre-existing conditions. No picking and choosing clients. Companies are reimbursed for those condition.

You must email or call your congressman and senators. Read Laurence Kotlikoff’s article below. Share this post. This is too important to be left to politicians and lobbyist.

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/on-health-care-lets-ask-germany/

Health Care Reform

Reforming health care now goes to the Senate. More than likely the Senate will make major revisions to the House plan, or may even come up with a totally different plan.

My advise to the Senate: Focus on the Patients, since every family will be affected. The best care for costs will be the second goal. The US does spend more than other countries and get less care.

Issues:

1) The Affordable Care Act is going Bankrupt. State health care co-ops are failing. Only 7 of 23 co-ops remain and they are losing money. $1.7 Billion in federal loans that will not be paid as of 2016

2) Coverage costs are rising quickly and insurance companies are dropping out. Heard of someone making ~$24,000 per year, their coverage would cost ~$7,000 per year. Who can afford that much?

3) Lack of Cost Controls. Especially prescription medicines.

4) Legal costs. Malpractice insurance for doctors and hospitals range from 15% to 25% of health care expenses. Jury awards are out of control.

5) End of Life Care. Almost everyone will be bedridden needing assistance or a nursing home for the last months or years. What about dementia care?

6) Coverage Limits will Fail. Some patients live longer than their coverage. Taxpayers will wind up covering that.

7) Consumer driven health care is a good theory. Whole Foods has had success with it. However some patients will need more than they saved in some severe cases. Who will pick up the tab?

8) Patients with severe issues or dementia will not be able to make their own choices. Who will advocate for them?

Health care is a complex problem, which can only be managed. It is too complicated to have a simple solution. The best ideas need to focus on patients and getting the best care for the cost.

The Future is Here (Almost)

This video shows a paralyzed patient using his hands and beginning to get more and more sensation and movement in his body. This is the result of USC Stem Cell research.

This video is 9 minutes long and awesome. Have little to add but a question. If we can do this, what else can we do?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtWyyJL9LiU&feature=youtu.be

Credit: Patrick Cox from Mauldin Economics for sharing the video from BioTime’s Announcement of First Stem Cell Spinal Cord Therapy Results.

The Future and Technology

Predictions are the hardest thing to do. Nothing makes us look more foolish than looking at old predictions. Especially my own. Heck no one even gets the NCAA brackets right.

The past is an indication. No one knew how much airplanes would become the major way of travel shortly after the Wright Brothers showed the world how to control flight. Wilbur and Orville would be amazed at the number of people traveling all over the world in comfort compared to when they laid down on their wing risking their lives.

Going to the Moon was accomplished in less than 10 years, although rockets were used as weapons in World War 2. Who would believe that much progress could be made that fast from a commitment in 1962 and competition?

Who would have thought the Arpanet would grow up to be today’s engine of commerce now know as the Internet? How about all the apps developed for your handheld computer-phone? Closest prediction to cell phones was the Dick Tracy wrist radio.

So let’s dive off the deep end and look at the future technologies.

The self-driving car is a given based on all the development and investment. What is overlooked is the technology is being better developed for air travel. Autopilots were first demonstrated in 1914 by Sperry. Modern planes could fly without pilots very soon. Artificial intelligence is beginning to take off to new levels in the next decade or two.

Self-driving trucks will be commonplace in a few years with a robot to unload them at each stop. People may not have thought of are simple chores like mowing the lawns, trimming shrubs and weeding will be automated in the next decade or two. Look at the robot vacuums. Why will people stock shelves when robots can do it easier. People will be saved for interacting with customers. Physical work will be passé, and I could do without weeding.

Next how about space travel. Go from London to New York or St Petersburg in an hour or two by traveling above the atmosphere. Vacation and gamble on the Moon and orbiting hotels. Take a once in a lifetime trip to Mars. Airplanes, automobiles, drones will still be with us, but travel is much faster.

Shipping cargo will be done through transporters. Star Trek transporters will handle cargo, although they may be too dangerous for living organisms. No idea when transporters will be developed. Additive manufacturing machines to manufacture where needed all over the world, but we will need a more efficient way to ship through space.

Television and holograms in helmets will be replaced by images generated in our brains. Why have hardware when you can see and feel by playing in our brains? The Internet will have been replaced by 3 to 5 new generations of connectivity. This will allow humans to connect brains in small to large groups for desired purposes.

Medicine will have gone from curing illnesses to prevention. Aging will be history once your body has reach maturity. Dying your hair will be replaced by natural and unnatural color growing from your scalp. Worn out cartilage will grow in our joints. New diseases will pop up only to be cured in days. Life will be longer and more productive.

Crimes and accidents will be anticipated and prevented. Weapons will have gone from physical to light, sound and energy. Lasers are close to deployment on naval ships and not much longer for other platforms. Sound weapons are being experimented with. What other forms of energy weapons are next?

With hard labor automated, there will be an explosion of learning, philosophy, art, stories and music. Look at the Italian renaissance when slaves freed up the owners time. Time was put to good use.

Unfortunately there will still be governments, power grabs and challenges for every generation. But mixing of people all over the world will reduce war and crime. Look at how low crime rates have gotten in most western societies. Better understanding of people will prevent more people from becoming criminals, and prevent suffering from mental illnesses. Most societies will be peaceful.

There will be other unexpected improvements. No one can see around corners enough to know all the future. You probably have ideas I missed. What are they?

Will we get there smoothly? No. History is full of technology jumps, technologies used for warfare, people fighting change, lost generations to war, and societies stepping back. History shows humans developing major technologies which benefit mankind. That trend will always continue.

   

Health Care Analysis NY Times

Have been watching the health care debate with interest. The truth is we have had free health care provided in Los Angeles for 8 days, and the demand is immense.

We also have unemployed who can not afford the Cobra coverage provided by the company, and companies who can not afford the cost to keep all employees with high insurance prices.

I am not assured that changing the debate to health insurance care is correct. Most insurance companies work hard to keep prices affordable and I have never had any trouble beyond filling out the form.

I also see No cost containment, nor limiting litigation liabilities in the House bill. Frankly there is no sense the government is going to not expand spending tremendously beyond the initial plans.

What I would like is portability of my plan, and preexisting conditions covered. As far as what is politically possible, I really enjoyed reading intelligent commentary. I recommend:

A Public Option Isn’t a Curse, or a Cure
By RICHARD THALER
August 15, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/business/economy/16view.html?hpw

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Steve Amos