No Career Feels Safe

After the 2008 melt down, the previously safe “Professional Class” lost their jobs and sold their homes. People in the top quintile were not safe like they had assumed. Most of us already knew jobs have changed. You are not alone.

2008-2012 grads were hardest hit as skilled people applied for starting salary jobs. School age students who are current grads saw their parents struggle and suffer. Grads struggle with student debts.

Have 4 good friends from college. Good people with flaws, especially me. We graduated among 18% with bachelors in 1978. “Get a degree, and work hard to get ahead” we all heard growing up. Our parents worked and retired from one or maybe two companies with pensions. We expected our lives to be like this, but has not turned out that way.

One friend from college has worked for the same company (under 9 different names) in the same town. Another friend is working in his hometown, but went back to college to change careers and companies. The other 3 of us have moved to multiple states to work. All had stretches of unemployment and uncertainty.

 What changed? Companies became corporate using MBAs to maximize shareholder returns and leadership salaries. Lifetime employment became “you are expendable” and “what have you done lately. Stockholders got more dividends and employees got smaller raises.

HR has closed door discussions about “old” employees with outdated skills. Not my generation, but mid-30s and 40s employees need to be upgraded. Managers are hiring the next generation. Not worrying about the people pushed aside.

How many people get to plan their retirement? Often forced on us early by economy, revised business plans and new technologies. Most people do not have enough saved for early retirement, and can’t find new jobs paying as much.

Lifetime education, new skills and willingness to learn are the new norm. My interviews discussed recent Solidworks training, Project Management certification classes, and writing my first book before I got hired. Volunteered leading training, and keep my job hunting skills sharp. Apply for new opportunities at work and watch the market just in case.

Be prepared. Save more than you expect to. Learn to network. Take any education you can, formal or informal. Watch company’s sales, competitors, and look for technologies you can use. Don’t berate yourself for mistakes nor things you can’t control. If life has taught me one thing, we are often woefully unprepared for what is happening around us. Yet we persist.

One younger brother successfully changed his career to be a minister. Other people around him pointed out his talents, passion for helping people, and guided him through the process. It was not suddenly the way to go, requiring years of studying, hunting for openings, and the responsibilities of the job. While religious life sounds great and has meaning, it is often quite stressful. You meet people going through the worst of life. No one has all the answers.

However he points out the best career is “Daddy” and “Grampy”. Couldn’t agree more.

Related reading:

Why the middle class is shrinking

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-middle-class-is-shrinking-2019-04-12

This is why everyone thinks they are middle class

https://www.fastcompany.com/90330573/who-is-actually-middle-class

You’re likely to be out of a job in your 50s

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/youre-likely-to-be-out-of-a-job-in-your-50s-4-ways-to-prepare-and-minimize-the-pain-2019-04-02

Labor 2030 Bain Study on Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Not good for average workers, and challenging business leaders.

Demographics are changing due to the aging boomers retiring and smaller birth rates. Bain is predicting employment growth to drop to 0.4%. Smaller workforce growth is a negative for economic growth. 50% of US GDP growth has been due to larger workforces.

Recruiting new and replacing skilled employees will be a challenge. Bain believes this will benefit younger & high skill workers in the short term. Companies will offer higher wages, flexible work arrangements and more attractive corporate cultures.

Mid- and low-skilled workers, the majority of the workforce, face at least a decade of disruption due to new automation technologies. Automation has the potential to increase income and wealth inequality. Bain believes only 20% of high skilled workers will benefit. Approximately 80% of workers will be affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement or a combination of the two.

Bain estimates that by 2030 these technologies could increase labor productivity by an average of 30%. Any big jump in productivity can be highly disruptive. By 2030, employers will need 20% to 25% fewer workers, equivalent to 30 million to 40 million jobs in the US. The coming phase of automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs.

Bain concludes resilience is a higher strategic priority. Resilient businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and regain momentum. Prepare for volatility and macro changes to business environment like rising interest rates. Be close to your customers. Instead of financial engineering, faster adaptability, lower debt and increase reserves.

Bain wrote this great report for businesses. We can learn from it as well.

We need to be resilient in our careers as well. Take on additional projects and responsibilities. Keep learning new skills, new software and take classes. Keep improving your services and offerings. Rote repeatable jobs are the ones that are going away. Learning and changing times are not.

http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx