Artificial Intelligence Not Replacing All Humans

Saw an article this week the 100% of all human jobs will be replaced with Artificial Intelligence by 2050. I respectfully disagree.

Computers are easy to program to do linear thinking well. But that is a group of humans telling computers what to do. Computers do not extrapolate and apply knowledge to different situations near as well as a child.

Humans know how to experiment, to combine lessons learned, and to make jumps in logic to solve problems.

The first hint is the self-driving killing a pedestrian in Arizona. She was walking a bike across the road in the dark. There were no vehicles nor obstacles to possibly block the lidar & radar views of her. Yet the car still hit her.

Self-driving cars should have been programmed to avoid people walking into the street, and avoid bicyclists. But were they programmed to avoid a person walking a bicycle? 

Suspect the issues is what happens when the self-driving vehicle comes into situations it does not expect. Nature, other drivers, pedestrians, skateboarders, bicyclists and children do not always act in predictable ways. Can you program a machine to avoid a tornado driven house on the road?

As a technologist / engineer think quite likely we will see self-driving vehicles. It will take longer than the optimists think. Self-driving trucks are set up for well mapped out freeways with limited on and off ramps. City streets and country roads are still too difficult. What would they do in a blizzard without human intervention? 

Drove from my brother’s rural house in New York down to JFK airport on a narrow parkway and city freeway. Was able to use the radar cruise control most of the trip, and appreciated the lane drift warnings. However could a self-driving car on an unfamiliar road know to move to different sides of the lane or straddle the lane markers to avoid potholes and wet patches? 

What about dogs, cats, deer and other animals crossing its lane?

What about the parking at McDonalds with a dead truck in the middle of parking lot lane and cars parked all over? Would it know how to figure a safe place to park out of the arriving tow truck’s way? Could it manage the drive thru?

Does AI know a ball rolling into the street means a child may follow?

AI will be a helper for humans, and make roads safer in the long run. Lets face it the biggest safety problem today is distracted drivers. Computers will not replace creativity and deep thinking.

Scientific American interviewed Leonard Mlodinow about his new book, “Elastic”. Leonard Mlodinow believes the future belongs to the elastic mind. Read here: 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-power-of-flexible-thinking/?utm_source=World+Future+Society+Members+and+Supporters&utm_campaign=732627831c-WFSNewsletter_032818&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0898ed6394-732627831c-283213941&mc_cid=732627831c&mc_eid=910ad0ceeb#

Seth Godin Calls AI Future

Seth Godin, marketing guru, goes through introduction of past technologies. Covered who developed them, how the technology progresses, and what happened because of it. Wedgewood, Model T, Kodak missing electronic camera market, and more examples to give you perspective.

Then Seth analyzes how customer service will use Artificial Intelligence.  To be used successfully AI has to make customers lives easier. He talked about an airplane reservation he had that got cancelled/rescheduled. All he got were text messages on his phone, he did not see until he woke up.

Seth had to search his and other airlines to get new reservations to make his presentation on time. Seth’s point is the airline computers had all the information. Knew his location, schedule and destination. The airline could look up schedules including competitors and automatically rebook his schedule to make his destination. This is where AI could serve your customers.

Seth further talked about what AI has to do solving problems. It is a design problem to be always available, anticipate needs and focus services for high value customers.

Seth gave a hierarchy for Customer Service:

1. No Service Needed (Good design)

2. No Service Seen (In background)

3. You Fix It (and then Tell Me)

4. I Call You (Fail)

5. You Put Me on Hold (Super Fail)

Watch this presentation and think about your industry. After all, we are all in customer service. How can you design your customer’s experience with AI?

Note - Seth Godin sponsored by IBM Watson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLZDyxLlNKRY_Kp5lVARXsEv3Uc3q5xbtl&v=pE-V229Pj1Y

The Future of Our Work

We are entering a new time period. Many of us have lived through the Information Age, we are now entering the Automation Age. The combination of Artificial Intelligence with Robotics is changing our world.

This did not start recently. Been working with robots since graduating college in 1978. Computers since 1970 (more or less). Artificial intelligence goes back to mythology, and really started with Dartmouth College in the Summer of 1956 (My birth year). Autopilots were invented and demonstrated in 1914 by Lawrence Sperry. This saved wear and tear on pilots enabling longer flights. Also freed up pilots for more important tasks like navigation or bombing. Modern autopilots handle all phases of flight including taxi, takeoff, climb, cruise, descent, approach, and landing. Next step will be cargo planes without human intervention.

What is happening now is different technologies are reaching a level of maturity that will change the world. Software programing has better analyzing and self learning. Sensors are more effective, have more range and cost less. Battery life improved as weight went down. Our cell phones are mini computers. The future will be mobile.

Automation with artificial intelligence will replace most repetitive, difficult or dangerous work. Ships will not need pilots or crews for weeks on the oceans. Deliveries will not need truck drivers. Taxis, Uber & Lyft will not need drivers. Electric vehicles do not need all the maintenance of gas & diesel motors. Mechanics, Miners and Farmers will not be put at risk of injury or death to work.

But this will go further. Bookkeepers will not be needed to support accountants with artificial intelligence. Taxes will be calculated automatically. Pharmacist technicians will not count pills or type labels. Like the secretaries of old, these positions will fade away. Estimates are 20% to 40% of current blue & white collar jobs will go away.

Like the last new ages brought challenges. Moving to cities was uncomfortable for many from family farms. New skills had to be learned. Familiar places were missed. We adjusted to change. When computers came into the office, more skills were learned as responsibilities changed.

 What will be different this time is the speed of the change is faster. Technologies are accelerating and new skills are replacing old ones.

How to have job security? Keep learning and being productive. Take more responsibility. Automation and computers are not as good as with people skills. They can better maintain an algorithm for repetition. Creativity, sales and innovation are not strengths of Artificial Intelligence. Those require people. No reason it can’t be you.

Could Your Job be Replaced by a Robot?

Most of us think, “No way a machine could do what I do.” Over your whole assignment that may be true. But there are simple repetitive parts of your job could be automated or done with artificial intelligence (AI) programming.

The drive to work and deliveries will be done by self-driving vehicles. Note auto-pilots can already take off, fly and land aircraft with minimal intervention by pilots. The Navy has already tested self-flying aircrafts on carrier decks, the hardest landing task for pilots.

Computers are better at sorting and searching than we are. Your work organization could be better managed by programming.

Millions of hours legal research are no longer done by young lawyers. The AI research programs are faster, cheaper and more accurate.

In medical fields doctors enter symptoms and programs like IBM’s Watson propose more alternative diseases for doctors to evaluate than their memory would hold. The result is less misdiagnosis.

When I started working drafting was done by hand, and every manager had a secretary or access to a secretary pool. There were dozens of secretaries in my department. Today my department has 3 office assistants for ~150 people. We all write emails, documents & PowerPoint’s instead of memos, and schedule meetings with Outlook.

All these jobs are white collar jobs being automated or out sourced. Parts of all our work can be replaced.

The good news is what can’t be automated is deep knowledge and judgment. We need to do is determine what part of our careers is most valuable, and then focus to be move productive there.

What parts of you job are grinds? Just time consuming. We need to minimizing those tasks, and focus on making money for our companies.

Not saying there will not be change in our working world. It is determining what is valued and providing those services.

What Do You Want to Be When You Grow Up?

This question is usually answered with a job or a wish. Fireman, Teacher, Nurse, or what someone in our family does. Truthfully we are so young we don’t know what it means.

One parent is looking to give up her Chairmanship. Her young son tells her he can take over. “I set up the chairs every week.” Different meanings are lost on us.

“In general we are least aware of what our minds do best.”

–      Professor Marvin Lee Minsky, MIT AI Lab

Professor Minsky studied intelligence and want to develop thinking machines to act like humans. The complexity of intelligence is our mind can learn several different ways. We observe, smell, interact, manipulate, taste, experiment, love and experience. All at the same time. Look at people interacting with their pets. How complicated are the behaviors of both human and pet?

Further our brains handles health functions like breathing, digesting and waste without much conscious thought. We pull back from hot, avoid predators, entertain others, and navigate around by distance, direction & landmarks in a complicated world. A Artificial Intelligence machine like that will require building lots different skills, and integrating them all to be like a human.

Often talents pop out and we wonder where did that come from? Why am I the only one who knew the answer? How come no one else understood him? Why didn’t they know what she meant? My favorite - “It was easy. Anyone could do it.”

We sometimes get mentors who recognize our talents and start to lead us. Often we muddle through and struggle what to do. You are far from alone. Often wonder what should be doing with these different gifts I have.

The hell of life is we are born for greatness. But we neither know why, or what our talents are. Finding out may take our whole life.

Happy hunting, and share what you learn.