The price of oil is going up and there are several questions why.Oil storage are full and full tankers are sitting outside our harbors. Due to supply, prices should be falling.
In the back of everyone mind should be the situation in Iraq. The nuts running Iraq want to dominate the middle east, and really believe they can bring their mullah back from the 13th century by destroying infidels (Israel) and spreading their religion throughout the world. Russia is not supporting sanctions against Iraq, and may force Israel to attack. If that happens Iraq will mine the waterways and trap 25% of oil tankers from reaching the West. Needless to say prices should spike if this happens.
Add to that US government spending tripling our debt without any job creation. The value of the dollar is falling by design which also drives up prices of commodities. They believe it will make us able to export more, but they have not eased regulations on small businesses. Add to that small businesses are afraid what will happen with the health care bill. No wonder the economy is slow. This does not even include banks and businesses deleveraging, nor consumers reducing spending over job fears and increasing savings.
No wonder oil went from $65 to $80 in the last eight weeks. Gold has crossed $1,000 per ounce and is still rising. The dollar is still easing. Do not see anything stopping these trends in the next six months, or until the Iraq situation and health care is resolved. I bought ETF's in Gold at $950 and Oil at $65 because I expected the dollar to fall.
Steve
PS - see current MarketWatch article below about oil prices.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-falls-as-api-reports-rise-in-crude-supplies-2009-10-21
Showing posts with label 2009 Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2009 Predictions. Show all posts
October 21, 2009
September 6, 2009
A peek into the future
Good article about the near future of technology.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover6-2009sep06,0,6494829.story
Copy and paste or just search "A peek into the future"
I love predictions. It is amazing how wrong we get them. Yet is it shows how we are trying to solve problems all the time.
Wireless electricity seems like a side effect failure, but there are great places to use it. Especially how difficult it is to run some wires. RUF seems too costly. There is a better chance for cars to use other software technologies which do not require the infrastructure.
N + 3 Aviation and Nanotechnology do seem like the future. There is a tremendous need for both of these technologies.
Just my guess about these technologies. What is yours?
Steve Amos
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover6-2009sep06,0,6494829.story
Copy and paste or just search "A peek into the future"
I love predictions. It is amazing how wrong we get them. Yet is it shows how we are trying to solve problems all the time.
Wireless electricity seems like a side effect failure, but there are great places to use it. Especially how difficult it is to run some wires. RUF seems too costly. There is a better chance for cars to use other software technologies which do not require the infrastructure.
N + 3 Aviation and Nanotechnology do seem like the future. There is a tremendous need for both of these technologies.
Just my guess about these technologies. What is yours?
Steve Amos
July 15, 2009
The Bernanke Market
More commentary By ANDY KESSLER in the Wall Street Journal. Favorite line in the article: "But I think what really bothers the market is that the structural problems that got us into trouble in the first place still exist."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124762005061042587.html
Happy reading,
Steve
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124762005061042587.html
Happy reading,
Steve
July 1, 2009
Plastic Molders Predict Increasing Oil Prices and Report Market Conditions
Interesting report by Injection Molding magazine that covers a prediction the price of oil will be in the 90's or 100's again by the end of the year. Notable is the recommendation manufacturers convert to all electric molding machines to save energy costs.
It also reports every market using plastic injection is down except medical products. It is an interesting read on the economy by Lisa M. Pellegrino
Steve
http://www.plasticstoday.com/imm/articles/MEI0709
It also reports every market using plastic injection is down except medical products. It is an interesting read on the economy by Lisa M. Pellegrino
Steve
http://www.plasticstoday.com/imm/articles/MEI0709
June 13, 2009
Are Oil Prices Going to Continue to Rise?
Friday the market price closed at $72.25 per barrel. The price of a barrel of oil has increase 17% in the last month. Four months ago the price per barrel was around $36. Here in California, gas prices have zoomed from $2.25 per gallon to $2.85 per gallon. Just in time for the driving summer season. What is happening?
First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.
Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.
But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.
OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.
So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.
So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.
Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos
First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.
Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.
But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.
OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.
So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.
So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.
Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos
January 1, 2009
Happy 2009!
Everyone is finally over 2008, but the economy is still a concern for most of us. Lets face it, few investors made money last year, and most of us took a substantial loss. At least my 401K has been crunched :( Thank God I am 50% cash right now, and the rest is losing money in stocks. However I focus on long term investments and good companies, so I will survive and recover.
However my predictions for 2009 are not as pessimistic as most of what you read in the media. Most of the worst effects of the recession already occurred in 2008. No one knows what will really happen, but I will make a few economic predictions like I did last year with oil prices. Warning your mileage may vary as I am limited in experience and make lots of mistakes. But it is good to present views for you to think about and analyze.
Recession: We are still going forward with the recession, and businesses are hanging on to money carefully since borrowing is so difficult. I do not expect the recession to grow into a worldwide depression. The news reports comparing us to a depression are vastly exaggerated. Most people have not experienced a serious recession since the early 1980's. We have lived through recessions before, and will survive.
Jobs: If you personally have a good job you may not feel the recession. People who are job hunting or looking for a better position will have to take more time to find a great job, and may have to take a step backward right now. It is just a delay for the good times to come. My prediction is job loses will peak early in 2009, and by the end of the year jobs will start recovering. So if you are job hunting keep persisting.
Stock Market: I suspect we are getting closer to the market bottom. I suspect we are within six months of the bottom. It may take a year, but I am looking for evidence it is time to fully invest again.
Housing: I see no bottom to the real estate market until around 2010. The over supply of home will have to be worked off the market. I expect prices to fall another 5% - 15% in 2009.
Oil prices: This was my best prediction of 2008. On January 17, 2008 I predicted oil prices would peak and fall during 2008. I thought the bubble prices were way out of line at $105 per barrel, and thought oil would fall into the $60 - $80 per barrel by the end of the year and to $40 - $60 per barrel early in 2009. My prediction was based on the long term cost of alternatives to oil were in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. In spite of the gyrations of politics, wars and speculation, I expect prices to stay in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. We might see another over correction with prices falling into the $30's per barrel with the slow economy. There is an oversupply which will be corrected over the long term.
The best advice summary: The best thing you could do is maintain a very positive attitude. This one action will help no matter the crisis's you face, and will help you reach your goals. Heck you may even succeed with your resolutions. Spend some time every morning meditating on what is good in your life, and thank God for everything. Even the challenges and problems you face.
Have a great 2009! I will no matter what.
Steve
However my predictions for 2009 are not as pessimistic as most of what you read in the media. Most of the worst effects of the recession already occurred in 2008. No one knows what will really happen, but I will make a few economic predictions like I did last year with oil prices. Warning your mileage may vary as I am limited in experience and make lots of mistakes. But it is good to present views for you to think about and analyze.
Recession: We are still going forward with the recession, and businesses are hanging on to money carefully since borrowing is so difficult. I do not expect the recession to grow into a worldwide depression. The news reports comparing us to a depression are vastly exaggerated. Most people have not experienced a serious recession since the early 1980's. We have lived through recessions before, and will survive.
Jobs: If you personally have a good job you may not feel the recession. People who are job hunting or looking for a better position will have to take more time to find a great job, and may have to take a step backward right now. It is just a delay for the good times to come. My prediction is job loses will peak early in 2009, and by the end of the year jobs will start recovering. So if you are job hunting keep persisting.
Stock Market: I suspect we are getting closer to the market bottom. I suspect we are within six months of the bottom. It may take a year, but I am looking for evidence it is time to fully invest again.
Housing: I see no bottom to the real estate market until around 2010. The over supply of home will have to be worked off the market. I expect prices to fall another 5% - 15% in 2009.
Oil prices: This was my best prediction of 2008. On January 17, 2008 I predicted oil prices would peak and fall during 2008. I thought the bubble prices were way out of line at $105 per barrel, and thought oil would fall into the $60 - $80 per barrel by the end of the year and to $40 - $60 per barrel early in 2009. My prediction was based on the long term cost of alternatives to oil were in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. In spite of the gyrations of politics, wars and speculation, I expect prices to stay in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. We might see another over correction with prices falling into the $30's per barrel with the slow economy. There is an oversupply which will be corrected over the long term.
The best advice summary: The best thing you could do is maintain a very positive attitude. This one action will help no matter the crisis's you face, and will help you reach your goals. Heck you may even succeed with your resolutions. Spend some time every morning meditating on what is good in your life, and thank God for everything. Even the challenges and problems you face.
Have a great 2009! I will no matter what.
Steve
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Democrats Aren’t Going to Win Mid Terms
1. Don’t know what they are doing wrong: Autopsy was incomplete and identified nothing. Seriously won’t admit Joe Biden’s condition was ...
-
3:15 am attack on Bourbon Street, New Orleans this morning. This tragic attack killed 10 and injured ~35 including 2 police officers. Most... -
Not an investment guru nor paid financial advisor. Just interested amateur who is convinced No One Really Knows what is going to happen. ... -
How to Solve Any Problem by Steve Amos © Copyright 2007 If you do not have any problems, you can skip this article. Notice everyone is still...