The Government Default

Today the news is the 2 parties are negotiating a 6-week extension raising the government borrowing. Only 7 days ahead of time. What a show of incompetence!

The Republicans thought they were winning. To paraphrase Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, they have become the party of “Stupid”. This member is disgusted.

The Democrats think they are winning. Wrong! You are the irresponsible teenagers borrowing on your credit card. The day is coming soon where your card will be cut in half, and a very long stretch of your pay being docked is beginning. Debt has to be paid.

The US currently spends $23 billion of every $250 billion of taxes for borrowing. Because of good credit borrowing was 1%. Looking at Greece, Ireland, Spain and Italy the interest rate for over indebted is about 6% or higher.  At that rate the US would have to pay $138 billion out of every $250 billion of taxes for borrowing. How much spending is left for the Democrats? Look at Detroit.

Looking for a 3^rd party of adults to cut spending and raise taxes. Both are needed for the crisis we are creating. We need a sustainable economy, manufacturing and spending. Anyone coming forward?

Concern - Will America Keep Taking Risks?

Everyone has seen the news about the Deep Horizon oil platform exploding, burning and sinking in the Gulf of Mexico. The large oil spill is very memorable, and the news stories are telling about the people who will be negatively affected by the large oil spill. Very heart wrenching.

In addition British Petroleum is getting ripped in the press as everything from incompetent to evil money makers. BP is responding announcing they are doing everything they can to clean up the problem, and will pay for all the damages. Properly so, I may add.

The real question is what will happen long term? Is this going to be like Three Mile Island accident, where the nuclear industry fell behind the rest of world in developing nuclear energy? Think about it. One accident caused a whole industry to stop in its tracks over 30 years ago. Almost no new plants have been built for three decades.

What is the result? Most of the technology has moved to other countries. Canada and France develop much more nuclear electricity than we do. The other scary side effect is these plants were designed to be replaced after 25 to 30 years and then replaced by modern plants. We have

Will one oil spill stop more drilling and exploration? Will the US be more dependent on imports to provide the gasoline and diesel for our cars and trucks. Most of us drive cars, and all of us buy groceries and goods delivered by trucks. Are we going to stop producing energy we need to complete in a global economy?

There are over 30,000 drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. There are plenty of opportunities for more accidents and oil spills. Are we going to stop driving and eating? No. We can not stop taking reasonable risks.

Our military is trained in taking risks. They professionally get in harms way and fight enemies who would love to kill them. We don't see them hiding in a military base in the US. We see our men and women all over the world in the worst conditions performing admirably. They do it by preparing for the risks and using training to overcome.

The US has to keep drilling for oil as well as developing alternatives. This will take decades to resolve. In the meantime talented men and women will come up with solutions to these problems and improve processes to make them safe. We must continue to develop energy and take risks to succeed.

Meantime our prayers are with the families of the lost and the injured from the accident.
Steve

The Recession Is Over--No Thanks To Stimulus

Interesting article on the Economy and Stimulus by two economists. See why the stimulus was more political than economically successful.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/14/larry-summers-recession-recovery-opinions-columnists-wesbury-stein.html?partner=popstories
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein senior economist at First Trust Advisors

The Bernanke Market

More commentary By ANDY KESSLER in the Wall Street Journal. Favorite line in the article: "But I think what really bothers the market is that the structural problems that got us into trouble in the first place still exist."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124762005061042587.html

Happy reading,
Steve

The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

An interesting analysis of the economy and commentary by MORTIMER ZUCKERMAN. My favorite line of the article: " So what kind of second-act stimulus should we look for? Something that might have a real multiplier effect, not a congressional wish list of pet programs. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html

Happy reading,
Steve

How About a Real Stimulus Plan?

Washington is now talking about another Stimulus Package. The problem is the current one has not spent the money necessary to stimulate the economy. Only 10% of the pork laden bill has been spent.

How many permanent jobs will the bill create anyway? Aren’t GAO estimates we are spending $600,000 per job created? You could give away money cheaper. Let’s not forget what this is going to cost us. Consumers eventually pay all taxes.

To create jobs we need to focus on manufacturing domestically. Businesses grow from creating real value. Services and finance grow from these bases.

Stop the Cap and Trade nonsense. It will export more jobs than create jobs. Climate change occurs naturally. Temperatures have not gone up in the last ten years. That disproves the theory that CO2 will increase temperature. Remember, temperature was much higher millions of years ago. Wasn't that the natural temperature we should go back to?

How about limiting litigation costs by capping awards? That would lower medical costs. Even better lower the costs of government regulations. Make filling out forms and information simpler for reporting. How about simplifying tax regulations so we can concentrate on serving customers?

For more jobs we need nuclear power and domestic oil production to lower our energy costs. I am okay with alternatives, but these are the lowest cost energy for transportation and electricity. What regulations have to change to allow investment?

Government building infrastructure is a worthwhile investment, but central governments do not respond quickly to needs. Government needs to be neutral to the market, or we export more jobs which slows the economy.

Let’s stop government from ruining our economy and stimulate real growth.
Steve

Advice from an Economist Who Saw 1929

Interesting article in Time commenting on the actions (stimulus) the government is taking. Good read.
Steve

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1909115,00.html?xid=rss-biztech-yahoo

Are Oil Prices Going to Continue to Rise?

Friday the market price closed at $72.25 per barrel. The price of a barrel of oil has increase 17% in the last month. Four months ago the price per barrel was around $36. Here in California, gas prices have zoomed from $2.25 per gallon to $2.85 per gallon. Just in time for the driving summer season. What is happening?

First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.

Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.

But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.

OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.

So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.

So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.

Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos

Deregulation versus Regulation Failure

Really good commentary by NIALL FERGUSON on blaming the right source.

"All of these were sins of commission, not omission, by Washington, and some at least were not unrelated to the very considerable political contributions and lobbying expenditures of the financial sector. Taxpayers, therefore, should beware."
Enjoy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17wwln-lede-t.html

Really enjoy reading about economics, the market and will include links in the future.
Steve