Labor 2030 Bain Study on Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Not good for average workers, and challenging business leaders.

Demographics are changing due to the aging boomers retiring and smaller birth rates. Bain is predicting employment growth to drop to 0.4%. Smaller workforce growth is a negative for economic growth. 50% of US GDP growth has been due to larger workforces.

Recruiting new and replacing skilled employees will be a challenge. Bain believes this will benefit younger & high skill workers in the short term. Companies will offer higher wages, flexible work arrangements and more attractive corporate cultures.

Mid- and low-skilled workers, the majority of the workforce, face at least a decade of disruption due to new automation technologies. Automation has the potential to increase income and wealth inequality. Bain believes only 20% of high skilled workers will benefit. Approximately 80% of workers will be affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement or a combination of the two.

Bain estimates that by 2030 these technologies could increase labor productivity by an average of 30%. Any big jump in productivity can be highly disruptive. By 2030, employers will need 20% to 25% fewer workers, equivalent to 30 million to 40 million jobs in the US. The coming phase of automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs.

Bain concludes resilience is a higher strategic priority. Resilient businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and regain momentum. Prepare for volatility and macro changes to business environment like rising interest rates. Be close to your customers. Instead of financial engineering, faster adaptability, lower debt and increase reserves.

Bain wrote this great report for businesses. We can learn from it as well.

We need to be resilient in our careers as well. Take on additional projects and responsibilities. Keep learning new skills, new software and take classes. Keep improving your services and offerings. Rote repeatable jobs are the ones that are going away. Learning and changing times are not.

http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx

Could Your Job be Replaced by a Robot?

Most of us think, “No way a machine could do what I do.” Over your whole assignment that may be true. But there are simple repetitive parts of your job could be automated or done with artificial intelligence (AI) programming.

The drive to work and deliveries will be done by self-driving vehicles. Note auto-pilots can already take off, fly and land aircraft with minimal intervention by pilots. The Navy has already tested self-flying aircrafts on carrier decks, the hardest landing task for pilots.

Computers are better at sorting and searching than we are. Your work organization could be better managed by programming.

Millions of hours legal research are no longer done by young lawyers. The AI research programs are faster, cheaper and more accurate.

In medical fields doctors enter symptoms and programs like IBM’s Watson propose more alternative diseases for doctors to evaluate than their memory would hold. The result is less misdiagnosis.

When I started working drafting was done by hand, and every manager had a secretary or access to a secretary pool. There were dozens of secretaries in my department. Today my department has 3 office assistants for ~150 people. We all write emails, documents & PowerPoint’s instead of memos, and schedule meetings with Outlook.

All these jobs are white collar jobs being automated or out sourced. Parts of all our work can be replaced.

The good news is what can’t be automated is deep knowledge and judgment. We need to do is determine what part of our careers is most valuable, and then focus to be move productive there.

What parts of you job are grinds? Just time consuming. We need to minimizing those tasks, and focus on making money for our companies.

Not saying there will not be change in our working world. It is determining what is valued and providing those services.

The Future and Technology

Predictions are the hardest thing to do. Nothing makes us look more foolish than looking at old predictions. Especially my own. Heck no one even gets the NCAA brackets right.

The past is an indication. No one knew how much airplanes would become the major way of travel shortly after the Wright Brothers showed the world how to control flight. Wilbur and Orville would be amazed at the number of people traveling all over the world in comfort compared to when they laid down on their wing risking their lives.

Going to the Moon was accomplished in less than 10 years, although rockets were used as weapons in World War 2. Who would believe that much progress could be made that fast from a commitment in 1962 and competition?

Who would have thought the Arpanet would grow up to be today’s engine of commerce now know as the Internet? How about all the apps developed for your handheld computer-phone? Closest prediction to cell phones was the Dick Tracy wrist radio.

So let’s dive off the deep end and look at the future technologies.

The self-driving car is a given based on all the development and investment. What is overlooked is the technology is being better developed for air travel. Autopilots were first demonstrated in 1914 by Sperry. Modern planes could fly without pilots very soon. Artificial intelligence is beginning to take off to new levels in the next decade or two.

Self-driving trucks will be commonplace in a few years with a robot to unload them at each stop. People may not have thought of are simple chores like mowing the lawns, trimming shrubs and weeding will be automated in the next decade or two. Look at the robot vacuums. Why will people stock shelves when robots can do it easier. People will be saved for interacting with customers. Physical work will be passé, and I could do without weeding.

Next how about space travel. Go from London to New York or St Petersburg in an hour or two by traveling above the atmosphere. Vacation and gamble on the Moon and orbiting hotels. Take a once in a lifetime trip to Mars. Airplanes, automobiles, drones will still be with us, but travel is much faster.

Shipping cargo will be done through transporters. Star Trek transporters will handle cargo, although they may be too dangerous for living organisms. No idea when transporters will be developed. Additive manufacturing machines to manufacture where needed all over the world, but we will need a more efficient way to ship through space.

Television and holograms in helmets will be replaced by images generated in our brains. Why have hardware when you can see and feel by playing in our brains? The Internet will have been replaced by 3 to 5 new generations of connectivity. This will allow humans to connect brains in small to large groups for desired purposes.

Medicine will have gone from curing illnesses to prevention. Aging will be history once your body has reach maturity. Dying your hair will be replaced by natural and unnatural color growing from your scalp. Worn out cartilage will grow in our joints. New diseases will pop up only to be cured in days. Life will be longer and more productive.

Crimes and accidents will be anticipated and prevented. Weapons will have gone from physical to light, sound and energy. Lasers are close to deployment on naval ships and not much longer for other platforms. Sound weapons are being experimented with. What other forms of energy weapons are next?

With hard labor automated, there will be an explosion of learning, philosophy, art, stories and music. Look at the Italian renaissance when slaves freed up the owners time. Time was put to good use.

Unfortunately there will still be governments, power grabs and challenges for every generation. But mixing of people all over the world will reduce war and crime. Look at how low crime rates have gotten in most western societies. Better understanding of people will prevent more people from becoming criminals, and prevent suffering from mental illnesses. Most societies will be peaceful.

There will be other unexpected improvements. No one can see around corners enough to know all the future. You probably have ideas I missed. What are they?

Will we get there smoothly? No. History is full of technology jumps, technologies used for warfare, people fighting change, lost generations to war, and societies stepping back. History shows humans developing major technologies which benefit mankind. That trend will always continue.