SARS Covid-19 has been the subject of much news, Twitter posts, Facebook posts, official announcements, misinformation, speculation, foreign government and political posturing. This led to various groups popping up claiming only they have the ‘true’ information, often followed by ads for cures with doubtful benefits. This is not a ‘Doomsday’ prediction! Optimistic about 3-5 years out.
This pandemic has been a science nightmare and evidence of caring people trying any treatment they can think of to save lives. Quarantines, Stay Home orders, physical distancing, and drugs developed for other diseases. So many first responders, doctors, nurses, aides, and other professionals have been running to help solve this issue. However this makes cures harder to scientifically verify.
Not helpful were China hiding initial information, WHO mismanaging information and research, western governments unprepared and underestimating risk, and everyone trying to blame someone else to cover their missteps. Typical human behaviors.
Facts have been able to discern:
1. Highly Contagious Virus. First appeared like a Flu but more contagious. No one has immunity since new novel coronavirus.
2. People are spreading Cvid-19 with no symptoms or before symptoms are obvious. Pattern about week before symptoms, if serious may be hospitalized for week to a month. Then patients need rehabilitation to return home.
3. Apparently mutated in Italy becoming more dangerous.
4. More serious for people with compromised immune systems and older patients. However seeing people of all ages infected and dying. Latest study over 75 patients under 15 with unusual conditions.
5. Appears to be natural source like SARS, MERS and many other diseases. One person from a lab would not cause a widespread breakout compared to thousands out in nature interacting with animals everyday.
6. If you had it, because of future mutations you may not be immune. Similar to the common cold some us catch every year or so.
7. Vaccines may take a year, several years, or never be successful. Treatments are likely to rapidly improve results due to experimentation.
Likely will happen:
1. Curing Covid-19 will take longer than predicted.
2. Tremendous medical progress results in new treatments and preventions.
3. Social Distancing will tend to weaken because we get overconfident, or miss family and friends too much. Children in school likely spread disease.
4. Breakouts will be local and fast spreading all over the world.
5. Negative effects on global economy will last longer than most people think. Also expect higher taxes to pay for debt over next decade.
6. There will be some permanent changes in consumer and business behaviors. Remote work will be much more widespread.
7. Expect business travel and vacation travel to return over a few years. Both have been important to growing economies.
8. Unemployment will partially recover quickly as service businesses reopen. However lots of jobs will permanently be gone. Will take several years for creating new jobs to replace missing jobs.
9. Distrust of other countries will rise. Competition between China, Europe, United States and other countries will trim global trade.
Based on facts and observations, expect we are in for one or two hard years. Beyond that we are going to see great technical progress, new medical discoveries, and global economies growing worldwide over the rest of the decade.
Short term:
1. Stay healthy by following basics until risks are reduced.
2. Stay in touch with family and friends. Joy and laughter improve health.
3. Reduce unnecessary spending for a year or two until your career is secure.
4. If you are still working, increase your emergency funds and consider delaying retirement. If not working find taxi jobs and educate yourself.
5. If your job is secure, around fall and winter there will be wonderful deals for homes and autos.
We have adapted and thrived through worse disruptions throughout history. Don’t underestimate resourcefulness, learning and growth. Long term we will benefit from these disruptions. Maintain your faith, and know God is in charge.
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