Wealth Basics Earn More

Your focus should not be on money nor material goods. Family, friends and your faith should be higher priorities for a good life. Consider the English Proverb, "Health is better than wealth."

Realize spoiling someone for the holidays is not worth debt you will be paying months later. You will need the money for future purposes. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is why so many people get themselves into credit troubles. You will be loved giving affordable gifts.  Live within your means.

How do we start to create wealth? First earn more. You will have more options to save. Scott Adams (Dilbert) says we become valuable by stacking talents. He became wealthy by drawing well enough, business knowledge, and being funny enough to be a syndicated cartoonist. 

Can you ask for a raise or promotion? Are you doing excellent work? Have you taken on more responsibility? These give you options.

You may have to change companies, industries or fields to earn more. My work in aerospace rewards me more than prior work in household products and real estate. However aerospace is known for boom & bust cycles, so this is a risk I accepted.

Research, read and talk with professionals what skills do they need? What technologies or new business approaches are growing now? Which skills and talents do you already possess? Do you have a degree? What can you learn and put to use quickly? Or do you need a degree in a different specialty that few people will put in the effort? Often you already have enough to earn more.

Avoid for profit colleges. Many people have too much debt for a degree that does not pay enough. Worse many did not complete a degree and still have the debt. Before you start a degree how do you minimize the cost and borrowing? In an era of rising interest rates, pay off and avoid debt.

Most wealthy people make create their money with a business, then invest to preserve their wealth. To start a business you need to have some money of your own to invest. Then you will have to borrow or get investors. If you are employed you can save for the future opportunities you see.

Start part time to see if your idea will work. Keep a day job and try a side hustle. Often it is not until we have tried a few different projects and processes do we find success. Once the income rolls in we have options including charity.

“If you make a lot of money, put it to use helping others while you are living. It is wealth's greatest satisfaction.” - Author Unknown

The American Holiday

Thanksgiving is a uniquely American Holiday.  We celebrate with family, friends, work off, stores closed and too much food. No rushed meal, long conversations, building relationships, memories, and see how the young have grown. Listening and assuming everyone has good intent.

To some this appears wasteful. How do you spend so much time & money on a meal? But gratitude is the core of America’s success. 

We all know failure. There is always bad news, terrible stock markets, natural disasters, politics, disease and death. Despite the happy story of Indians and Pilgrims, there was much warfare and Indians were decimated by European diseases. 

Celebrating another year with loved ones, letting the problems go, and being thankful build our success. Learn a lesson and keep trying. America celebrates both failure and success. And after both we try again.

Wishing you a very happy Thanksgiving

Things We Learned That Are Wrong

Sit Quietly and Keep Your Head Down

In school teachers talked and we were suppose to sit & listen. But that is not how children learn. They learn by doing. Students need activity to learn.

Get a Degree and Work Hard to Get Ahead

Education in was reading, memorizing and repeating data. As long as you could repeat the correct answer on a test you were done. Since my 20s have said “Secret to my success is after college was unlearning much of what I was taught.”

Wrong degree, and you will struggle with find work and raises. Hard work is a given. The people who get ahead take responsibility, action and stand out.

Theory X Management

Assumes people have little ambition, avoid work and are selfish. Most people if skilled enough, properly trained and rewarded can perform great work with little supervision. Nordstrom’s, Zappos, and many software & entrepreneurial companies prove how wrong this is.

More Data Solves Everything

“There is a sense that more data will give us greater insight [. . . b]ut the history of science tells us that is not always the case, that in fact very small observations gave us very fundamental insights about the nature of reality.” - Teppo Felin, Professor of Strategy at Oxford’s Said Business School

Small groups of dedicated people change the world. Not data.

To change something, start by saying “Yes I can.”

Your Political Views are a Minority

"Great thoughts come from the heart." - Marquis de Vaunargues

If you are in the Resistance, you are in a minority.

If you are a Trump diehard, you are in a minority.

IF you are a traditional pro-labor Democrat, you are in a minority.

If you are traditional pro-business Republican, you are in a minority.

If you are a progressive Bernie Sanders Democrat, you are in a minority.

If you are a 3^rd party or Independent, you are in a minority.

No matter your religion, you are in a minority.

My views are minority.

Americans are not uniform. We came from different states or countries. Our families are different, our foods are different, and our looks are different. Don’t think there is a typical American. No surprise our opinions are different.

The wide variety of thought is one of our strengths. Not being uniform, we can a lot of ways to solve problems or make improvements. America was built on experimenting and choosing what works. Why would anyone have a monopoly on good ideas?

My hope is in the number of close races across the country. Almost all candidates got less than 60%. Some winners will not get 50%. Gerrymandering voting districts are being voted out and stopped by judicial decisions. Close elections encourage people to vote for candidate who can get work done.

  

There are things most of us agree on, even if we don’t know how to solve them yet:

Health care and medicines cost too much.

Social Security and Medicare need cost reductions and more funding.

More jobs and a good economy pay for our services

The nation’s infrastructure needs maintenance, replacements and improvement.

The military needs updating and replacing used systems after years of war.

The government should not be going $1 Trillion further in debt per year in a healthy economy.

Remember everyone loves their children. We have more in common than differences. Be grateful for the differences.

Thank you for voting

"We must dare to think 'unthinkable' thoughts.  We must learn to explore all the options and possibilities that confront us in a complex and rapidly changing world.  We must learn to welcome and not to fear the voices of dissent.  We must dare to think about 'unthinkable things' because when things become unthinkable, thinking stops and action becomes mindless." - James William Fulbright

The Future is Shaped Like a Hockey Stick

The hockey stick analogy is a graph of how technology grows. Growth is slowly improving over years or decades, then explodes upward.

Look at so many bad predictions: 

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." - Ken Olsen, founder Digital Equipment Corporation. 

“This administration has no intention of participating in the construction of any more Cadillac-commuter systems that have very little chance of providing adequate benefits…. As for starting new freeways, I just do not see that happening.” - Donald E. Burns, Secretary of Business and Transportation, State of California, 1975

The reasons we underestimate the future is we tend to look with a bias towards recent events. Most predictions on the economy or stock prices are based on the last few weeks or quarters. Last week the stock market was up 2%. That followed weeks of falling stock prices, but prices were up the first 3 quarters this year. No one knows what the market will do on Monday morning, despite all the businesses focused on investing money.

Truthfully did anyone see the convergence of technologies that are smart phones other than Steve Jobs? Developing apps for smart phones was not part of the original iPhone, that came later and was key to the success of smart phones.

Computers were first developed in the mid 1930’s & 1940’s. Personal computers were introduced in 1971, but it wasn’t until 1981 IBM PC started the revolution.

Composites were also developed in the mid 1930’s & 1940’s for aerospace & military applications. Although we could say mud and straw buildings 6,000 years ago were the first composites. Composites are now widely spread since the 2000’s into commercial airplanes, automotive and consumer products.

These technologies made steady improvements over decades before their usage spiked upward. This is a common hockey stick pattern.

We can see patterns that may happen. Recessions happen regularly, so there will be one sooner or later. Stock prices to earnings ratio is among the three highest in history. Over the next decade the earnings ratio will likely return to mean. Expect lower returns on stock price growth in your investments. 

So the development of technology is going to give us some ideas about the future. Battery development, lighter materials and solar panels are driving the switch to electric cars. Electric cars with a range of 200 miles are eliminating the fear of running out of juice. The per mile cost of operating an electric car is one-third the cost of gasoline vehicles. Manufacturers are predicting mid 2020’s for the switch.

Longevity improvements have grown steadily or exceeded predictions for decades. Partly because no one anticipated how quickly the world economy would develop. Brooking reports for the first time 50% of the population are middle class or higher. 

Stem cells medicines and new treatments are producing improvements. Technology has made great strides in the past decades. The likelihood of a jump in healthy life expectancy could start in the next 5 to 20 years. 

What changes will we see with a lifespan increase of 10 to 50 healthy years? People can’t afford to retire for 60 years. What societal changes will happen? Longer lifespans have already reduced birth rates. What do you think? What other changes will happen?

Confronting Reality

Called an audible on today’s post for this week’s news. Attacks on Tree of Life Synagogue, bombs mailed to prominent Democrats, a convenience store shooter first tried to enter Black First Baptist Church, and Molotov cocktails thrown at Iglesia ni Cristo Locale of Seattle, a Church of Christ. This year there were attacks against Afro-Americans, Christians, Gays, Hispanics, Indians, Jews, Muslims, Sikhs (often mistaken for Muslims) and more.

Everyone knows ISIS and Al Qaeda are violent and try to influence young people to commit violence. Right Wing Extremists killed more people than ISIS over the last decade. (Thanks to Peter Singer DefenseOne). Live on west coast where Antifa promotes violence and Animal Activists burn down labs and homes. Lets not forget the bigotry against races and religions leading to violence. It is only time until people die.

Remember most people are not violent. They love their children. We need to listen to the concerns of others. We need to treat others with respect. Especially if we disagree with their views. And they need to let us disagree.

For security don’t focus on politics, race or religion. Don’t ignore women either, even though most assaults are committed by young men. ISIS and Al Qaeda use women and children as bombers. The best focus for security is people’s actions. Regardless of beliefs their actions are similar. Security is only successful if we talk about all extremists and their actions. Simple answers don’t work. Security requires effort.

Extremist and armies tend to dehumanize the enemy so they don’t feel guilty killing others. We need to acknowledge everyone. We need to talk with everyone. We need to let people know they are important. 

It is up to you. Acknowledge, talk and respect others. No matter how different they are than you.

National Security Pros, It’s Time to Talk About Right-Wing Extremism

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/02/national-security-pros-its-time-talk-about-right-wing-extremism/146319/?oref=d-dontmiss

Business Rules

Consultants and others will sell you all sorts of secrets about running a business. There are No Secrets. Here are your day to day priorities.

Business is about Relationships

People Buy your products and services, not businesses. People buy from people they like. Not always the cheapest, but someone they can depend on.

Customers First

The More Empathy for what the Customer is Experiencing, the more successful your business will be. Know how your and your competitor’s products and services are used. Where is it not easy, there are Opportunities.

Look Out for Your Team

No one can do everything themselves. Not only are coworkers valuable for implementation and delivery.  They solve problems and come up with ideas.

Small businesses need to team up with other businesses or services to grow. These people are your priority.

What is Your Main Offer?

Good offers Sell. Customers place orders and repeat orders. They recommend you. They upgrade to your premium products and services. 

If your products or services are not selling, your offer is either not meeting potential customer needs or it is priced wrong. How can you better your competitor’s offers?

Technology

 Yes the engineer businessman put this last. Outdated technology won’t sell, but customers tend to buy what works. Have the people closest to the customers prioritize your investments. Better quality, faster delivery, reduced customer efforts and selling points are what you need.

Notice did not specify industry, business size, nor customer type. These rules work whether a Fortune 100 or business in a garage. What is Your Priority Monday morning?

Rest in Peace Paul Allen

Paul Allen passed away today from complications of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Paul is know as the co-founder of Microsoft, and may be known as the owner of sports teams Portland Trail Blazers and Seattle Seahawks. He invested in real estate development, medical research, and artificial intelligence among others. He gave millions to museums, MoPOP, the Heritage Flying Museum, and other charities for the homeless.

Paul was an engineer and the son of a teacher and a librarian. He grew in the leader may of us admire and miss today. 

Paul Allen was reserved and personable. He was the boss who listened to your concerns, gave feedback or direction, then let you go do your work. He not only donated money, Paul tried to figure out what was wrong and fix it. For instance working on climate change figuring out the why the coding was wrong.

Paul also really loved music was always with his guitar. His players knew him from the sidelines and locker room. No matter how busy he was, he communicated one on one. Paul Allen is a great example to model for leadership. 

Prayers and sympathy for his family, co-workers and friends.

Career and Earnings Lessons

Education & lifelong learner handled changes. What can you learn from one career?

1973 Lifeguard - $2.35 per hour. ($0.50 above minimum wage)

Back from 6 week cross country summer trip. Had lifesaving certificate and replaced friends off to college. Bought 10 speed out of $253 earnings.

1978 - Process Engineer - $7.79 per hour.

Graduated college working heat treat department in aerospace manufacturer.  Not use to so much money, lived on 1 of 2 paychecks saving the other. Started MBA classes next year.

1983 - Production & Quality Engineer - $11.54 per hour.

First company laid off half of employees. Got opportunity with nuclear manufacturer before got my lay off. 40 mile commute led to quitting grad classes. Bought first home for $65,000 with 5% down.

1988 - Manufacturing Engineer - $16.45 per hour.

Navy shut down nuclear company. Crossed picket line 2 years for firearm manufacturer in extended strike. Followed 2 short term jobs with small manufacturers. 6 months unemployment was best experience & motivation to develop more skills.

1993 - Manufacturing & Quality Engineer - $19.06 per hour.

Small hardware manufacturer in poor market conditions. Wore many hats, developing ideas into new products. Company employment shrank, but company grew market share from #3 to strong #2. However 2-3% raises not helpful. Had roommates and worked 2^ndjob to pay mortgage and car payment.

1998 - R&D Engineer - $32.88 per hour.

Joined large hardware manufacturer crossing country. 2^ndrelocation to west coast came with promotion. Sold 1^sthouse after 13 years for $72,000 (net loss $1,300). Bought 2^ndhouse for $190,000.

2003 - Commercial Appraiser - $20.00 per hour.

Self employed assisting partner and learning new industry. Difficult how much needs to be done to be successful as entrepreneur. Sold 2^nd house for $262,000 living off proceeds for 2 years. Year met my wife.

2008 - Contract Engineer / Marketing - $29.00 per hour.

Real estate market collapsed in 2006. Got back into engineering rationalizing overgrown product lines for Spa / Whirlpool Bath manufacturer. Wound up leading marketing project. Studied Solidworks computer design software.

2013 - Manufacturing Engineer / Project Management - $43.05 per hour.

Relocate to Pacific Northwest for development program at large aerospace manufacturer. So much need to be done. Keep moving projects and desks. Studied for PMI project management certification, but did not take $600 test while unemployed. Healthy raises & asked would I consider management, but management’s life is challenging. Bought 3^rdhome for $265,000.

2018 - Manufacturing Engineer / Project Management - $52.20 per hour.

Program went from development to sustaining. Out of 1,100 manufacturing engineers, 1 of 123 left on program. Worked 13 projects & had 24 desks in 8 years. Raises dropped to 2-3% as demand slowed. (Age is a factor.) However a new program in development and will be opportunities for promotions. Expect to work 10-15 years more.

Lessons:

1) Employment tomorrow is Not guaranteed. 

     (Unemployed 2.5 out of 40 years)

2) Save for your future and hard times. 

3) Times change. Moved between industries, 7 states and new technologies. 

4) Education never stops.

5) Growth comes from taking Responsibilities and Risks.

6) Persist for Success.

7) Account for Inflation. 3 median priced houses: $65,000 in 1983. $190,000 in 1998. $265,000 in 2010. (Houses are up 80% in 8 years here)

8) Cash flow determines how comfortable your life is.

These lessons work. Apply them to your career and industry.

We Are Too Hard On Ourselves

Who hasn’t been afraid we make a fool of ourselves in public. Sure the people we talked with were bored or think we are foolish. (foolish and human here)

We analyze and criticize every mistake we make during the day. If you play sports, you replay the bad plays instead of your highlights.

Do you remember the nice things you said on social media? No you remember the criticisms or insults.

Time published “People Like You More Than You Think” about published research in Psychological Science. We underestimate how much the other person likes us. Everyone does this, especially if we are shy.

The tendency is to substitute our feelings about we said because we can’t know what the other person thinks. We assume they think (like us) that we made a bad first impression. That is not true, and people will give us several chances in future meeting.

The penalty for being so negative is anxiety, sadness and even depression. We may avoid social encounters that could be enjoyable being hard on ourselves.

The secret is listening to other people, asking questions about them, and be present in the moment. When we focus on others, it quiets the critical voice in our mind. Find most people are good and kind. Go enjoy your day.

http://time.com/5396598/good-first-impression/