This article comments on the falling demand versus the falling dollar. Oil is in an interesting position.
Steve
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-rise-above-70-in-asia-trade
June 23, 2009
Maxwell: Oil Price Forecast
Energy expert Charles Maxwell notes that because of the recession, oil supply and demand are in balance, but down the road there will not be enough supply.
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4022&t=3&scode=009597
My conclusion, there will be more demand for domestic and international drilling starting in 2012. This may hurt President Obama's reelection campaign since the energy policy has been discouraging more drilling.
Steve
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4022&t=3&scode=009597
My conclusion, there will be more demand for domestic and international drilling starting in 2012. This may hurt President Obama's reelection campaign since the energy policy has been discouraging more drilling.
Steve
June 19, 2009
Adapt to Change – or You May Be Left Behind
Laura Rowley has a good article on change. The best advice comes from a company with 50 years of growth. Listen to the customers. Change when the customer needs something.
Listen. Change. Two actions for us to take today.
Read the article here on Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/171226
Listen. Change. Two actions for us to take today.
Read the article here on Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/171226
June 13, 2009
Are Oil Prices Going to Continue to Rise?
Friday the market price closed at $72.25 per barrel. The price of a barrel of oil has increase 17% in the last month. Four months ago the price per barrel was around $36. Here in California, gas prices have zoomed from $2.25 per gallon to $2.85 per gallon. Just in time for the driving summer season. What is happening?
First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.
Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.
But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.
OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.
So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.
So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.
Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos
First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.
Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.
But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.
OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.
So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.
So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.
Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos
May 28, 2009
The Myth of the Rational Buyer
How Too Much Thinking Can Hurt Your Brand
BY Mark Dziersk
Fast Company blog
A wonderful question is conventional marketing hurting sales. What if the best thing is to market emotionally to your customers. After all, what are you offering them?
http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/mark-dziersk/design-finds-you/myth-rational-buyer-how-too-much-thinking-can-hurt-your-brand
The truth is often simpler. People want what works, looks good, and give pleasure by doing what it is suppose to. How can product development be easier.
May 23, 2009
Celebrities Share Secrets of Success
Great article about a Fox News special on how to succeed. The ten rules are spot on for business and your life. Please read...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521421,00.html
Watch “Secrets of Success,” hosted by Uma Pemmaraju on Sunday at 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. EDT.
Search the title if the link does not work
Steve
Here is part of the article:
"Here is a list of some of the common threads they share: lessons they picked up on their own personal journeys towards what they describe as happy and fulfilled lives.
1. How You Think Is Everything. — Learn to visualize success and not failure. The phrase "You are what you think" is a powerful idea. Don’t listen to the voices that are pulling you down -- you can’t spend all your time trying to win over your critics. Run your own race.
2. It's Not About the Money — Material things are the results of success, but are not success itself. It’s great having a nice home, a six-figure salary or luxury vacations, but success isn’t measured by the dollars. It’s measured by how satisfied you feel.
3. Goals, Goal, Goals — Remember that goals must be meaningful and personal; otherwise, you won’t be inspired to achieve them.
4. Great Expectations — For something desirable to happen, you must want the event to happen, firmly believing it will occur and expecting it to take place.
5. To Fail Is to Succeed — Failure pushes you to levels you never dreamed of, and can open doors you never thought possible. See failure as a life lesson for what works and what doesn’t.
6. Dream Big — Never be afraid to follow the dreams of your heart. It’s the fuel for success. Your dreams give you the energy and inspiration to aim for an authentic life.
7. Take Responsibility — Stop expecting things to just happen without action. You need to take action to reach your goals, without blaming others for bumps or setbacks you may find along the way. Own the choices you make: Be a victor, not a victim.
8. Positive, Not Negative — If you are passionate about your dreams and goals, you’re likely to attract people who will want to support and help you. Call on them when you need encouragement or guidance.
9. Never Stop Learning — Read books, take classes, take the time to learn all you can about things that excite, motivate or inspire you. Never lose that sense of wonder or curiosity when it comes to seeking more knowledge.
10. Belief in a Higher Power — Regardless of your religion, develop a strong sense of faith in God and have a daily attitude of gratitude for what you have in this life. Believe that there is a divine purpose to your life and know that there is power in prayer."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521421,00.html
Watch “Secrets of Success,” hosted by Uma Pemmaraju on Sunday at 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. EDT.
Search the title if the link does not work
Steve
Here is part of the article:
"Here is a list of some of the common threads they share: lessons they picked up on their own personal journeys towards what they describe as happy and fulfilled lives.
1. How You Think Is Everything. — Learn to visualize success and not failure. The phrase "You are what you think" is a powerful idea. Don’t listen to the voices that are pulling you down -- you can’t spend all your time trying to win over your critics. Run your own race.
2. It's Not About the Money — Material things are the results of success, but are not success itself. It’s great having a nice home, a six-figure salary or luxury vacations, but success isn’t measured by the dollars. It’s measured by how satisfied you feel.
3. Goals, Goal, Goals — Remember that goals must be meaningful and personal; otherwise, you won’t be inspired to achieve them.
4. Great Expectations — For something desirable to happen, you must want the event to happen, firmly believing it will occur and expecting it to take place.
5. To Fail Is to Succeed — Failure pushes you to levels you never dreamed of, and can open doors you never thought possible. See failure as a life lesson for what works and what doesn’t.
6. Dream Big — Never be afraid to follow the dreams of your heart. It’s the fuel for success. Your dreams give you the energy and inspiration to aim for an authentic life.
7. Take Responsibility — Stop expecting things to just happen without action. You need to take action to reach your goals, without blaming others for bumps or setbacks you may find along the way. Own the choices you make: Be a victor, not a victim.
8. Positive, Not Negative — If you are passionate about your dreams and goals, you’re likely to attract people who will want to support and help you. Call on them when you need encouragement or guidance.
9. Never Stop Learning — Read books, take classes, take the time to learn all you can about things that excite, motivate or inspire you. Never lose that sense of wonder or curiosity when it comes to seeking more knowledge.
10. Belief in a Higher Power — Regardless of your religion, develop a strong sense of faith in God and have a daily attitude of gratitude for what you have in this life. Believe that there is a divine purpose to your life and know that there is power in prayer."
May 20, 2009
Game Changer Pocket-Sized Robot Could Change Urban Warfare
Here is a perfect example of a game changer innovation. A successful supplier to the US military, iRobot, develops a better product that will revolutionize warfare. This is the type of innovation needed to stay on top of your business.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520851,00.html
If link does not work, search Foxnews for “Pocket-Sized Robot”
How can you change your market today?
Steve
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520851,00.html
If link does not work, search Foxnews for “Pocket-Sized Robot”
How can you change your market today?
Steve
May 16, 2009
Deregulation versus Regulation Failure
Really good commentary by NIALL FERGUSON on blaming the right source.
"All of these were sins of commission, not omission, by Washington, and some at least were not unrelated to the very considerable political contributions and lobbying expenditures of the financial sector. Taxpayers, therefore, should beware."
Enjoy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17wwln-lede-t.html
Really enjoy reading about economics, the market and will include links in the future.
Steve
"All of these were sins of commission, not omission, by Washington, and some at least were not unrelated to the very considerable political contributions and lobbying expenditures of the financial sector. Taxpayers, therefore, should beware."
Enjoy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17wwln-lede-t.html
Really enjoy reading about economics, the market and will include links in the future.
Steve
March 18, 2009
Manufacturers have not yet truly embraced what LEAN Six Sigma tells us
Good article at Industry Week. Lean Manufacturing produce to order which is a huge advantage in agility and responding to customers. The US has not fully embraced an advantage we have over suppliers across an ocean. Read "Viewpoint - Industry's New Look" below:
http://www.industryweek.com/articles/viewpoint_--_industrys_new_look_18708.aspx?ShowAll=1
There are also good webinars available on http://www.industryweek.com/
Steve
http://www.industryweek.com/articles/viewpoint_--_industrys_new_look_18708.aspx?ShowAll=1
There are also good webinars available on http://www.industryweek.com/
Steve
February 27, 2009
Businesses Need to Plan for the Recovery
It is about the opportunities, not the problems. We are in a good sized recession, and the uncertainty is making life difficult for business owners and managers. Orders are down as customers order smaller quantities, or no longer have demand for some products. Credit is in short supply, and cash is king.
Even worse is the drumbeat of bad news shouted from the TV, and on front pages of magazines and newspapers. They are trying to scare you to look or listen for better ratings. Hello, this is about the size of the 1982 or 1975 recession. Not the Great Depression 2 or even the end of the world.
Today is not about the fear. Business is about the relationships, especially with the customers. Business is about being better than the competition. Business is about finding our niches, and serving the customer. Business is about making a profit through service.
So what can you do differently to improve profits?
Even worse is the drumbeat of bad news shouted from the TV, and on front pages of magazines and newspapers. They are trying to scare you to look or listen for better ratings. Hello, this is about the size of the 1982 or 1975 recession. Not the Great Depression 2 or even the end of the world.
Today is not about the fear. Business is about the relationships, especially with the customers. Business is about being better than the competition. Business is about finding our niches, and serving the customer. Business is about making a profit through service.
So what can you do differently to improve profits?
Can you offer 2 for 1? Make twice as much and lower your prices? Develop a low cost version? Add more products to sell to your customers? Redesign dated products? Bundle more services together?
What about when the recession ends? What products or services would you like to develop now to be ready for the next couple years? Who do you need or want on your team? What skills do you need to train your staff to have? Don’t you think this is the best time to prepare?
We have to be careful, but business will go on during and after the recession. Will you be ready?
Steve
What about when the recession ends? What products or services would you like to develop now to be ready for the next couple years? Who do you need or want on your team? What skills do you need to train your staff to have? Don’t you think this is the best time to prepare?
We have to be careful, but business will go on during and after the recession. Will you be ready?
Steve
Scroll down to Anticipating the Credit Crunch for more ideas to increase profits.
About the Market
Personally I am not ready to declare the bottom of the market, and it may be further off than we would like. However there are reasons to think we are closer to the end than at the beginning. Housing has already corrected about 40% from the peak of the bubble. The Dow has dropped from the $14,000’s to the low $7,000’s. For other hints see Irwin Keller’s article below.
Signs of life
Commentary: The economy's worst may be past
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Feb. 24, 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/evidence-mounts-recessions-worst-past/story.aspx?guid=%7B71467556%2D3683%2D4018%2D906C%2D7FFC8A3F9E8C%7D&dist=TNMostRead
Note Marketwatch Links are soon broken. If the link does not work, go to
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Search for Irwin Kellner
About the Market
Personally I am not ready to declare the bottom of the market, and it may be further off than we would like. However there are reasons to think we are closer to the end than at the beginning. Housing has already corrected about 40% from the peak of the bubble. The Dow has dropped from the $14,000’s to the low $7,000’s. For other hints see Irwin Keller’s article below.
Signs of life
Commentary: The economy's worst may be past
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Feb. 24, 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/evidence-mounts-recessions-worst-past/story.aspx?guid=%7B71467556%2D3683%2D4018%2D906C%2D7FFC8A3F9E8C%7D&dist=TNMostRead
Note Marketwatch Links are soon broken. If the link does not work, go to
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Search for Irwin Kellner
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