Advice from an Economist Who Saw 1929

Interesting article in Time commenting on the actions (stimulus) the government is taking. Good read.
Steve

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1909115,00.html?xid=rss-biztech-yahoo

Plastic Molders Predict Increasing Oil Prices and Report Market Conditions

Interesting report by Injection Molding magazine that covers a prediction the price of oil will be in the 90's or 100's again by the end of the year. Notable is the recommendation manufacturers convert to all electric molding machines to save energy costs.

It also reports every market using plastic injection is down except medical products. It is an interesting read on the economy by Lisa M. Pellegrino
Steve

http://www.plasticstoday.com/imm/articles/MEI0709

Oil falls for second week as demand worries return

This article comments on the falling demand versus the falling dollar. Oil is in an interesting position.
Steve

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-rise-above-70-in-asia-trade

Maxwell: Oil Price Forecast

Energy expert Charles Maxwell notes that because of the recession, oil supply and demand are in balance, but down the road there will not be enough supply.

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4022&t=3&scode=009597

My conclusion, there will be more demand for domestic and international drilling starting in 2012. This may hurt President Obama's reelection campaign since the energy policy has been discouraging more drilling.
Steve

Adapt to Change – or You May Be Left Behind

Laura Rowley has a good article on change. The best advice comes from a company with 50 years of growth. Listen to the customers. Change when the customer needs something.
Listen. Change. Two actions for us to take today.

Read the article here on Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/171226

Are Oil Prices Going to Continue to Rise?

Friday the market price closed at $72.25 per barrel. The price of a barrel of oil has increase 17% in the last month. Four months ago the price per barrel was around $36. Here in California, gas prices have zoomed from $2.25 per gallon to $2.85 per gallon. Just in time for the driving summer season. What is happening?

First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.

Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.

But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.

OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.

So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.

So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.

Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos

The Myth of the Rational Buyer

How Too Much Thinking Can Hurt Your Brand

BY Mark Dziersk

Fast Company blog

A wonderful question is conventional marketing hurting sales. What if the best thing is to market emotionally to your customers. After all, what are you offering them?

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/mark-dziersk/design-finds-you/myth-rational-buyer-how-too-much-thinking-can-hurt-your-brand

The truth is often simpler. People want what works, looks good, and give pleasure by doing what it is suppose to. How can product development be easier.

Celebrities Share Secrets of Success

Great article about a Fox News special on how to succeed. The ten rules are spot on for business and your life. Please read...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521421,00.html

Watch “Secrets of Success,” hosted by Uma Pemmaraju on Sunday at 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. EDT.

Search the title if the link does not work
Steve

Here is part of the article:
"Here is a list of some of the common threads they share: lessons they picked up on their own personal journeys towards what they describe as happy and fulfilled lives.

1. How You Think Is Everything. — Learn to visualize success and not failure. The phrase "You are what you think" is a powerful idea. Don’t listen to the voices that are pulling you down -- you can’t spend all your time trying to win over your critics. Run your own race.

2. It's Not About the Money — Material things are the results of success, but are not success itself. It’s great having a nice home, a six-figure salary or luxury vacations, but success isn’t measured by the dollars. It’s measured by how satisfied you feel.

3. Goals, Goal, Goals — Remember that goals must be meaningful and personal; otherwise, you won’t be inspired to achieve them.

4. Great Expectations — For something desirable to happen, you must want the event to happen, firmly believing it will occur and expecting it to take place.

5. To Fail Is to Succeed — Failure pushes you to levels you never dreamed of, and can open doors you never thought possible. See failure as a life lesson for what works and what doesn’t.

6. Dream Big — Never be afraid to follow the dreams of your heart. It’s the fuel for success. Your dreams give you the energy and inspiration to aim for an authentic life.

7. Take Responsibility — Stop expecting things to just happen without action. You need to take action to reach your goals, without blaming others for bumps or setbacks you may find along the way. Own the choices you make: Be a victor, not a victim.

8. Positive, Not Negative — If you are passionate about your dreams and goals, you’re likely to attract people who will want to support and help you. Call on them when you need encouragement or guidance.

9. Never Stop Learning — Read books, take classes, take the time to learn all you can about things that excite, motivate or inspire you. Never lose that sense of wonder or curiosity when it comes to seeking more knowledge.

10. Belief in a Higher Power — Regardless of your religion, develop a strong sense of faith in God and have a daily attitude of gratitude for what you have in this life. Believe that there is a divine purpose to your life and know that there is power in prayer."

Game Changer Pocket-Sized Robot Could Change Urban Warfare

Here is a perfect example of a game changer innovation. A successful supplier to the US military, iRobot, develops a better product that will revolutionize warfare. This is the type of innovation needed to stay on top of your business.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520851,00.html

If link does not work, search Foxnews for “Pocket-Sized Robot”

How can you change your market today?
Steve

Deregulation versus Regulation Failure

Really good commentary by NIALL FERGUSON on blaming the right source.

"All of these were sins of commission, not omission, by Washington, and some at least were not unrelated to the very considerable political contributions and lobbying expenditures of the financial sector. Taxpayers, therefore, should beware."
Enjoy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17wwln-lede-t.html

Really enjoy reading about economics, the market and will include links in the future.
Steve