Coming in 2016

Know it is not New Year’s Day when predictions typically come. Truthfully have been looking for trends and indicators before making up my mind during a volatile December and January. Here are keys for 2016 and possible gray swans that could be missed.

1. Global Economy will continue to slow down gradually. Predictions of end of the world will surround us, but main drivers are a slower growing China economy and governments will need to reign in spending. Do not expect China to have a hard landing, and expect several governments will cut spending slowly over the year as tax receipts are reduced by their economies. Middle East and Asian countries most affected.

2. US Economy will have a mild recession. The long slow growth is due for a pullback, but do not foresee a collapse. The US economy will stabilize the world economy. Stock markets may fall further than the economy over weaker earnings and short term jolts to expansion plans. We may already have over 50% of the stock price pullback. Typical recessions stock losses are 15% to 30%.

3. Commodity prices will stay weak until the global recession passes. Expect industrial metals like copper & iron stay weak for a couple years. However most of the price drop has already occurred. Will hurt Australia, Canada, Russia, and South American countries dependent on mining.

4. Silver is forming a bottom around $14. Moderate chance could step down a bit more, but likely price will increase by end of year as mining slows down and supplies get tighter. Gold is trying to form a bottom, but is more of an emotional investment driven by fear. Could take one more step down or start another bull market. Consider accumulating both gold and silver in 2016.

5. Oil should stay weak for now, but expect prices to turn up a bit in summer to end of year. Expect prices to rebound to $40 to $55 per barrel by mid-2017 at the latest. Think the cartel will pull together sometime in the next year. (gray swan)

6. Unemployment will likely stabilize as job growth slows. Truth is the easy productivity games are ending. Robotization is a time-consuming investment more likely during growth cycles where payback is guaranteed. Having participated in both successful and unsuccessful automation projects, it takes time to develop robots and computer programs.  However it is a good investment for your business during a mild recession to prepare for the next growth spurt.

7. Gray Swans:

            ISIS/Daesh - will weaken in Syria / Iraq under direct pressure. Will grow stronger in Libya and Africa where non-functioning governments cannot handle the crime.

            Europe - Economy is recovering, but slowed by less demand in Asia. Will struggle with more immigrants coming and increased nationalistic parties gaining power. Will see Eastern Europe struggle most, but watch Italy, Belgium, France and Spain for risk.  

European Union - Not likely, but countries leaving the union would be considered a serious warning for the end of the Euro.

Terrorism - Expect more attacks on soft targets like malls, restaurants and hotels.

Computer Hacking will increase in 2016 and become more of international issue.

2016 is setting up as mild year with increasing risks. Also see there will be pleasant surprises with new technologies, medical treatments, disruptive companies and areas of growth to offset some of the worries. Stay positive and looking for opportunities.

Pick Your Theme

There are phases, sayings and words that resonate with you. During hard times they may lift you and encourage you.

My phase that has been helping me with my challenges: 
“I am Resilient”

What is yours?

Resolution Follow Thru

Have you failed yet? (How about not even started?) You are not alone. Over 9 of 10 diets have had a cheat day, set back, or even just a “I gained weight” by 2 weeks into the new year. (Was trying to hold my gains, but currently up 2 pounds.)

America financial success is known for the Scientific Method, which translates to trial & error & error & error & …

Failure is not a bad thing. We learn from our failures and our successes.

To really achieve your success this year try measuring and tracking your goal.

Have a spreadsheet where have recorded my steps and weight since 2010. Know now that temporary weight jumps come and go. That 2 pound spike will be gone in a day or two of sticking to my diet. The two pounds to lose will take 2 months more most likely to be permanent. This I have learned from a simple tracking sheet filled out mostly daily.

Fill out a post it with data to take it to the office. Then recorded every day or so. But can go back now to see where have successfully lost before and stay motivated to succeed. Learning is the benefit of actually writing down your results.

To get your resolutions done, start tracking results and be grateful you wrote them down. Time will show you succeeded despite the failures.

Why Not You?

"Why not me?"
- Jon Lovitz

Heard Dennis Miller interview Jon Lovitz many years ago. He asked Jon how he became so successful. Jon replied one day that he was thinking about success one day, and asked himself "Why not me?" Jon could not think of a good reason why he could not be successful. So when a new opportunity arose, Jon would think "Why not me?" and go do it. Not everything was a success, but with his attitude Jon became a successful comedian, actor and business owner.

This quote and attitude have stuck with me over the years, and encouraged me to try more things. People talk about being writing a book. Am co-author of 2 books because was willing to try, persist, and learn from my mistakes.

So today am asking, Why not You? What would you do if you could not fail?

Be a Better You

"Be at war with your vices; at peace with your neighbors, and let every New Year find you a better man." - Benjamin Franklin

Everyone would like to improve. Why else do we make New Years resolutions? We want to make more money, get promoted, lose weight or find the love of our life.

Instead of making very general resolutions that will fail in the first weeks, choose what you will succeed at. That is right, you are going to succeed.

How do I know this works? Have done it. Who else do you know planned to lose 10 pounds, and lost 16? Successfully lost weight and kept it off for years.

Lets Get Started

Start writing a list of desires.  Where do you want your life to be better? Get paper now.

Why do you want to improve this part of your life? Write down all the reasons.

What values & beliefs of yours support these ideas/resolutions? Write them down.

What values & beliefs hold you back? If you think wealth makes you an evil and mean, you will sabotage your efforts. Write down the values/beliefs why you can’t do it. Are they true? I really doubt it. There will be difficulties, but nothing you can’t work around or overcome. Your talent and hard work will be rewarded.

Now comes the hard part. Which resolution is no. 1?  You need to put them in order.  Which resolution is most important to your values and actions?

Then you pick. Preferably choose only 1 resolution, but no more than 3. May be one major and a minor one? You choose which goals to succeed at.

Now start planning how you will succeed at your first resolution. What steps are necessary for you to consider your experience a success? What can you start today? Focus on what you control.

Repeat if you are working on a second resolution.

Why It Works

Focusing on a few goals, and creating actions you follow get faster results. The more you value a goal, the harder you will work to succeed at your resolution.

Writing it down is another reason for success. Write the goal as if it has already happened. Write the actions as if the past and you did them already. You mind will follow you.

The results may take longer or be less than expected. Sticking with it gets results.

Results

Weight loss, was it easy? No. Did I fail at times? Yes, of course. But I stuck with it.

Was technically not fat, just at the higher end of my healthy weight range. However was not playing volleyball 4 times a week nor weightlifting. Sitting around let me gain weight. Just did not feel good physically. Motivation included Dad getting Adult Onset Diabetes. Taking care of myself could prevent that.

 My plan was rather simple. I gained weight one pound at a time. Losing it was going to be the same. Skipped the diet and went immediately to a maintenance plan. Less carbs, smaller portions, more exercise, and add some healthy foods. Did not give up any foods I loved, just limited how much I ate them.

Another secret, allowed myself one cheat day per week. Still could go for cake at a birthday, donut on Sunday, or restaurant meal. Spread them out by dieting 6 days a week.

Results: 16 pounds lost in 18 months. You have heard the last 10 pounds is the hardest to lose? That was my whole goal. Weight did not fall off easy. But have maintained the gain 5 years by making a permanent change.

Second did go through unemployment and find a new job while losing weight. Succeeding at one goal supported working towards another goal.

Follow Thru

Lots of people think they have to be perfect to accomplish anything. Not true. Every plan will have setbacks and make adjustments. Your plan must allow for changes, celebrations and vacations.

People think focusing on one or few changes, the other goals will not happen. Truth is by focusing you complete goals faster. Success motivates you to start the other goals expecting to succeed.

Pick your most valuable goal, and write down your plan. Then adapt and adjust your plan until you succeed.

Following this plan myself. Will let you know how I make out. Let me know how your plan worked for you.

A very happy New Year to you, your friends and family.

Spotting Dying Businesses

Do you want to know if your company is dying? Yes for two reasons:

One, you can intervene in the issue and improve your teams results. This puts you in a leader’s role with the resulting salary.

Two, you can be the first to find a new company to work with.  There are advantages knowing what you have to do and having enough time to start the process before you lose your salary, or experience the heartbreak of closing a company.

What are symptoms of a dying company?

1. Not Knowing Who the Customer Is

Big companies love processes. They are good because processes build quality controls and guarantee stable returns on effort. However your customer is not your co-worker who gets handed the work after you are done. He is a partner in satisfying the real customer who chooses and pays for your product & services.

Successful companies fall in love with their customers and dive deeply into their customer’s businesses. That way the company is focus outward, not inward.

2. Not Staying Up with the Times

Stable companies often have the belief their customers won’t change. They have always bought from us and will not leave. That is not true.

Customers retire, go out of business, or die. Businesses are run by people, and people always change.

Second technology changes. Eastman Kodak did not want to kill the film business, which brought in fortunes. The marketing failure was not realizing they could make more profits licensing their technology. Do you realize they could have had a Kodak Camera in every cell phone?

3. Not Creating New Products & Services

Unless 10% to 25% of your sales are new products and services less than 5 years old, your future is looking bleak. Mature products have to fund new investments to stay successful. What percentage of your sales are new products?

4. Illegal Business Practices
Bernie Madoff Ponzi schemes.  Double sets of accounting books. Inside trading. Bribes. Stealing secrets. Drug habits.

Any one of these practices can result in jail time, customers abandoning you, and being unemployable. Time to find new work now, even with a pay cut.

Check on a regular cycle how you and your company are doing. The only constant in life is change. Make sure you are doing everything you can to adapt and thrive.