Labor 2030 Bain Study on Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Not good for average workers, and challenging business leaders.

Demographics are changing due to the aging boomers retiring and smaller birth rates. Bain is predicting employment growth to drop to 0.4%. Smaller workforce growth is a negative for economic growth. 50% of US GDP growth has been due to larger workforces.

Recruiting new and replacing skilled employees will be a challenge. Bain believes this will benefit younger & high skill workers in the short term. Companies will offer higher wages, flexible work arrangements and more attractive corporate cultures.

Mid- and low-skilled workers, the majority of the workforce, face at least a decade of disruption due to new automation technologies. Automation has the potential to increase income and wealth inequality. Bain believes only 20% of high skilled workers will benefit. Approximately 80% of workers will be affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement or a combination of the two.

Bain estimates that by 2030 these technologies could increase labor productivity by an average of 30%. Any big jump in productivity can be highly disruptive. By 2030, employers will need 20% to 25% fewer workers, equivalent to 30 million to 40 million jobs in the US. The coming phase of automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs.

Bain concludes resilience is a higher strategic priority. Resilient businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and regain momentum. Prepare for volatility and macro changes to business environment like rising interest rates. Be close to your customers. Instead of financial engineering, faster adaptability, lower debt and increase reserves.

Bain wrote this great report for businesses. We can learn from it as well.

We need to be resilient in our careers as well. Take on additional projects and responsibilities. Keep learning new skills, new software and take classes. Keep improving your services and offerings. Rote repeatable jobs are the ones that are going away. Learning and changing times are not.

http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx

Why Aren’t Raises Going Up?

Today’s job report was strong with 313,000 new hires. However January’s burst of wage inflation was a mirage, only 2.6% wage increases February. And that is before adjustments.

With 4.1% unemployment, why aren’t wages going up? The Fed Reserve keeps pointing to the Phillip’s Curve, which shows inflation should follow low unemployment. But it is not happening.

Alan Greenspan, Former Federal Reserve President is one of the critics of the Phillip’s curve. It predicts inflation, which does not appear. Paul Volker was another skeptic of the Phillip curve. The Federal Reserve’s issue may be they do not have a replacement model, and the appeal is low unemployment causing inflation is simple to understand.

Like most complex issues, there are several contributors to the problem. Believe the Federal Reserve is missing critical observations from their models:

The global economy and technology means companies can shop outside local neighborhoods and the United States for lower costs. My company is training engineers to outsource manufacturing planning to Russia and India. Unfortunately the planning quality has been poor to mediocre. Until recently high corporate taxes and low transportation costs have made moving manufacturing overseas desirable.

After 6 months of unemployment, you are no longer considered part of the work force. Many workers stayed in college, took social security, disability or retired early because of not being able to find work. These people are coming back adding to competition to find jobs.

There are 20 million people missing from the work force. Approximately the same number of people with drug convictions due to the War on Drugs. This hidden source of workers is beginning to rejoin the workforce.

The Federal Reserve has also contributed to lower inflation by keeping lending interest rates low. Companies have sure investments in low risk bonds with borrowed funds, rather than developing new businesses. Low inflation contributes to low wages.

Jonathan Tepper co-author of “End Game” and “Code Red”, wondered why a leading indicator for wages that had worked for decades stopped working since 2014. We are in a growing economy with a booming stock market. His article is on MauldinEconomics.com ‘Outside the Box’. His conclusions:

Companies are keeping more of the profits. They are rewarding investors with either dividends or stock buybacks.

Companies are able to keep more profits because of mergers and acquisitions have decreased competition. There are fewer companies with larger market share.

Many workers are living in non cities have limited choices which companies to work for. Combine that with weak Unions to negotiate higher wages.

US CEO wage gap inflation versus regular workers. UK CEO make 22 times average workers. US CEO make 276 times average workers. Less money to spend on worker salaries.

Do not see a burst of wage growth in the next 2 years for the reasons above. However the economy is strong, and wonder if the Federal Reserve has recognized they have finally created 2% inflation? Stronger inflation will increase wages until the next recession.

Grief Old Acquaintance

In honor of Charles

Recovering from cross-country trip for a funeral. It is wonderful to see family, even for a sad occasion. Do not travel as well as a few decades ago. Jet lag, plus a headache that has not gone away for 2+ days. Fortunately today responding to aspirin (wasn’t before).

The parents I went to see lost a newborn. The worse because we all start with such hope for the future. Suddenly there is a problem with development. Medical science offers an option. Then nature says no. Losing a child is just devastating. No one to blame.

My nephew’s father-in-law lost his mom this week. This is easier because more expectation at her age and health. Lost dad about 2 years ago now, and miss him. My stepmom is still devastated he is gone. Mom when to the Lord 16 years ago suddenly, and still there are days she is really missed. Always hard to lose parents.

My wife has been expecting her mother to recover from old age and dementia for years now. Only recently since her last trip has she started to face facts. Been afraid she was setting herself up for a hard time.

My good friend Bob is grieving his loss of health to cancer 8 years ago. Bladder surgery saved his life, but he has been reduced from healthy worker to disabled residential care patient in constant pain. Not a life any of us expect. He went from highly respected professional employee to depending on aid. He misses his old life. You would too.

Have had to move between companies and several states to keep working in my field. You grieve for the loss of friends and coworkers who you depended on. You are often lost until you get to build social networks in your new life. But we miss the old comforts of your old life.

We all have or will experience grief. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s 5 stages of grief are well known - Denial, Bargaining, Anger, Depression and Acceptance. Grief is a process, not an event to recover from.

My experience is you have to be kind to yourself or the grieving person. Let yourself/them grieve, remember and talk about it. Nobody does grief the same way.

Be patient. This is measured in months or years. Grief does not resolve itself quickly. Too many push for normalcy now.  We are uncomfortable. But we/they are not over it. The process takes time. My stepmom is finally showing signs of being herself after 2 years, and she is not done yet.

Don’t isolate yourself. Isolation leads to being stuck in the process, self-medication and other unhelpful behavior. Find others who have been through similar experiences. Charles parents should find Bereaved Parents of the USA, a church grief group, or a grief group through the local hospitals or YMCA/YWCA. No one should be alone during this time.

If you are upset, yell at God. He is big enough to take it. Better than taking it out on people around you. And being upset is part of the process.

Not an expert at grief. At a funeral of a father with young children, an 18 year old friend was crying while we tried to talk. She tried to apologize. Told her it was okay to cry. I did not feel any better than she did. I just had more practice being older.

Fortunately there are angels among us who show their love. In every event see friends, neighbors and coworkers bring food, company and support. Impressed by the volunteers at church for receptions. Thank them so much.

Give the last word to Charles father. He spoke “How he had never know such love as when Charles was born.” It is up to us to give love to the grieving, or experience love in healing.

"The key to emotional health is to learn how to handle grief. The person who reacts to sorrow only with anger becomes embittered, hardened, and cynical." - Nido Qubein, President High Point University, Author

Charles parents have requested donations to Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Will include a link if anyone would like to join me.

Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

https://www.facebook.com/ChildrensHospitalofPhiladelphia/

Bereaved Parents of the USA

https://www.bereavedparentsusa.org

5 Stages of Grief and other resources

https://grief.com

Persevere

“Fall seven, Rise eight” - Japanese Saying

The world considers me successful. College degree, good paying job, engineer, author, married, own home, nice cars, savings, not much debt, tall, play volleyball, run, and only ~5 lbs. over ideal weight. But the world does not see how I got here.

Terrible C student: Flunked German and semester of English in high school. Bunch of D’s in Spanish, English, Math & Science. Flunked an engineering course and took an incomplete Junior year of college. Cum was 1.5 that year (2.0 is C). MBA dropout, life got in way. Yet one of 220 engineers to graduate out of 662 freshmen.

Very shy: In school, college and starting out in business. Gave an Engineering Week presentation this week. Told group am leading, I was bad at relationships growing up. Did not get married till 46. Don’t you think I was bullied, had break ups, horrible dates, dating wrong people, and lonely times? Am close with family, have great friends, and good relationships at work.

Business: Worked for companies that closed, laid off half their workforce, and been fired / outplacement. Invested in real estate and went bankrupt. Started and closed my own businesses. Most of my wealth is in the last 8 years, plus buying a house at the bottom of the market. Manage projects with teams of very smart people including senior management. Mentor people on careers and business.

Fitness: 2 painful knees starting at 16. Use to go out randomly in 20s and I would fall down. Swam breaststroke in high school and college. Allergies started around 22. First shoulder injury at 26, and 4 more since including last year. Changed sports. In 40s developed sleep apnea, Insomnia, leg twitches and wonder what a good nights sleep is. Ranked as ‘A’ or ‘BBB’ level in volleyball in 40s (AAA is pro beach player). Lost 15 pounds and kept it off. Given ~90 pints of blood. Ran a mile this morning, and back playing volleyball after months of rehab.

In every area of life have failed, learned, tried again, experimented and overcome. Angela Duckworth calls this process “Grit”. Olympic athletes competing now have overcome injuries, loses, and public failures.

You have to get past negative attitudes. Try hard new things. Find out what works for you. Be uncomfortable. Struggle. Fail. Sometimes it takes years. Find people to teach, and support your efforts. Look for examples and mentors. They are out there.

Talent does not take you very far. Hard work and perseverance does. Support anyone who is trying. Help them persevere and become resilient.

"Fate gave to man the courage of endurance." - Ludwig van Beethoven 

The Correction or What Happened?

Not a good weekend to look at our 401Ks or IRAs. The Stock Market went down about 10% in a week. Depending how it was invested so did our savings.

Company earnings have not dropped. Other country stock markets have not fallen much. The Economy is still doing well. Jobs and Wages are growing. What is causing the sudden change?

It is leverage, options and derivatives. These are higher risk borrowing and insurance without reserves. For instance if you knew absolutely a stock would go up 300% next week you would buy it now as an investor. If you don’t have enough money, you could borrow to buy more shares. That is leverage. The downside if share prices fell, you would still have to pay off what you borrowed and quickly. You sell whatever has value to cover your debts. You could lose 100%.

Most people don’t know they are buying derivatives. Most of us have been buying index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs). But now there are more leveraged ETFs & ETNs then there are stocks. Few non-professional investors understand what they own and the risks involved.

Warren Buffet has called derivatives “weapons of financial destruction.” Financial professionals have created “derivatives of derivatives” to further increase profits. However these are all powered by debt. At some point debt has to be paid.

A large number of investors have been improving profits by investing in low Volatility. Shorting VIX was the way this has been done. For the last few years it has been an ideal bet. Or was until a week ago. Some investors have lost 80% in a week. Some funds will liquidate and close.

Debt is the reason stocks fell so fast and may fall more. The average of corrections is 16%, but no correction is average. The correction may be done, or markets lose over 10% more into a recession (20% loss). Stock markets may start climbing again next week or next year. Anyone who tells you they know what will happen next is lying. Which is why am diversified and still investing for my retirement.