Demographics are changing due to the aging boomers retiring
and smaller birth rates. Bain is predicting employment growth to drop to 0.4%. Smaller
workforce growth is a negative for economic growth. 50% of US GDP growth has
been due to larger workforces.
Recruiting new and replacing skilled employees will be a
challenge. Bain believes this will benefit younger & high skill workers in
the short term. Companies will offer higher wages, flexible work arrangements
and more attractive corporate cultures.
Mid- and low-skilled workers, the majority of the workforce,
face at least a decade of disruption due to new automation technologies. Automation
has the potential to increase income and wealth inequality. Bain believes only
20% of high skilled workers will benefit. Approximately 80% of workers will be
affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement
or a combination of the two.
Bain estimates that by 2030 these technologies could
increase labor productivity by an average of 30%. Any big jump in productivity
can be highly disruptive. By 2030, employers will need 20% to 25% fewer
workers, equivalent to 30 million to 40 million jobs in the US. The coming
phase of automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs.
Bain concludes resilience is a higher strategic priority. Resilient
businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and
regain momentum. Prepare for volatility and macro changes to business
environment like rising interest rates. Be close to your customers. Instead of
financial engineering, faster adaptability, lower debt and increase reserves.
Bain wrote this great report for businesses. We can learn
from it as well.
We need to be resilient in our careers as well. Take on
additional projects and responsibilities. Keep learning new skills, new
software and take classes. Keep improving your services and offerings. Rote
repeatable jobs are the ones that are going away. Learning and changing times are
not.
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