Vaccines are Seat Belts and Airbags of Medicine

 Accidents happen every day. Small dings, fender benders, rear enders, and the major accidents with hospital trips or death. Seat belts and air bags are ready to save your body and life, and reduced travel deaths extensively since being mandated in 1968. 

 

Vaccines get your body ready for an attack by known diseases. Exposing your immune system to a deactivated / weakened bacteria or viruses, your body trains to fight these diseases. You create antibodies to fight the disease in the future.

 

Vaccines are very effective. Smallpox has been eliminated by vaccines. Old enough to remember classmates who had polio and measles permanently affecting them. My father almost died at 13 from whooping cough. CDC lists 14 diseases people forget about because success of vaccines. You are likely alive today because you were vaccinated as a child.

 

Airbags were invented because people were resistant to wearing seat belts, being crippled or dying. Before being required by law in most states, compliance was about 14% in 1983. Now see ~90% compliance. Airbags work more effectively with seat belt usage. Millions of people are alive and not crippled because of seat belts and air bags.

 

SARS Covid 19 causes blood clots, and attacking organs including brain, circulatory, heart, lungs, digestive and reproductive systems. Highly contagious, you can catch from anyone. Kills ~1-2% of infected people. ~10% have long term affects to their organs lasting for months or permanently. Not just a serious flu like originally thought. 3,291,489 deaths to date are likely under reported due to lack of testing. You are more likely to catch Covid than be in a car accident.

 

Was in ‘wait and see’ category to see if there are any problems with new vaccines. January switched to encouraging everyone to get vaccinated because of the data proves safe and effective. What is the alternative? More disabilities and deaths.

 

Encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Copy or share. We want to save lives.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html

 

 

International Business Got More Challenging

 Unfortunately politics are led by people. And people have their faults. investment decisions are more challenging by the situation. We seem to be in an era of ‘Cult of Personality’ leaders for many countries. President Trump is one of these leaders. He is still popular. If he had taken care of pandemic and listened to experts he likely would have won reelection. 

 

My comments about the leaders reflect no bias against people from anywhere. Had and have wonderful coworkers and friends from all continents including almost all the ‘Axis of Evil’ countries. My wife family is of Chinese descent in Indonesia, and my family immigrated from all over Europe. Think I could start WW1 by myself. Working in technical fields always impressed with how intelligent and talents everyone is. Most people are wonderful. 

 

Leaders do affect what happens and may happen in the future, so we have to evaluate risks. This is a short discussion of what could happen. The subject is complicated and points are simplified for length.

 

Myanmar

After 10 years of partial democracy, the military known as Tatmadaw declared a national emergency after ~83% voted for the party they didn’t like. Television, phone service, newspapers, internet and international flights have been shut down.

The protests were large and immediate.  Violence began with military shooting protestors. Now there is a general strike. The strong arm tactics are not working and military may not realize the mess they created. Not sure how long this will last, but investments are pulling out until resolved.

 

Russia

President Putin has been extending his ability to be elected for life. Opponents are jailed and Alexander Navalny was poisoned. Crimea was seized 6 years ago and Russia has recently stockpiled military troops and equipment along the eastern Ukraine border. Ukraine east of Dnieper river was part of the Soviet Union for many years. Most residents speak Russian. President Putin believes taking over this territory will solidify his popularity despite international consequences. Russia has recently been partnering with China for aerospace, military and space. 

 

China

China’s economic growth is unparalleled over the last 30 years. They have grown to one to the world’s largest economy by building cities and support systems for products, technologies and whatever customers needs. They became the factory to the world. The Belt and Roads initiative are aimed at growing future trade. 

China negotiated trade advantages with the WTO. Business partners had to give up intellectual property to trade in China. China is working on making their currency a major trading standard. The Great Firewall of China keeps out the internet. It does not prevent the military from hacking secrets. Russia has been holding back its technologies because the agreements are not in place.

China’s goal is to be a regional superpower equivalent to Europe and the US. The takeover of Hong Kong was easy and fast. They are fighting neighbors by claiming the Chinese Sea and building island air and military bases, ignoring the UN 2016 ruling. They have militia marine vessels to take over areas by number alone. They have been challenging Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, and South Korea.

President Xi has been consolidating power and eliminating opponents. In his next 5 year plan he would like to ‘reunify’ Taiwan into China. Currently there is a campaign of intimidation, pressure and interference in politics against Taiwan. Despite the threat of invasion, this is the least likely approach China would take. Step by step political accommodation and a feeling of inevitability is the desired path.

 

Taiwan

Taiwan is the world’s 21^st largest economy, has advanced technologies and is main designer and supplier of the world’s computer chips. China is their largest trading partner. Taiwan businesses have made significant investments in Chinese factories. 

Independence needs to be supported by other trading partners.

 

European Union

EU is larger than the US economy. Despite the name is less unified than thought. Every country has personal interests first before EU priorities. Brexit is evidence of the disunity. The pandemic has hurt economies and arguments about vaccine allotments are an issue. Europe’s growth is slow or negative where many thought would be the first to recover.

 

India

President Modi has claimed a lot of credit for India’s successes of which there are many. However the pandemic is damaging his power. They had contained it well and are producing vaccines in country, but distribution is the issue.

India has always done things their own way. The desire to modernize the military with China next door is making changes. India has tremendous capabilities in computers, engineering, software and space. Modernization continues unevenly.

 

Turkey

President Erdogan would like to be a regional power and is involved throughout the Mediterranean including Greece, Libya, and other conflicts. Being part of NATO, there are concerns about weapon systems from Russia. They are going their own way. 

 

Iran

The development of nuclear weapons, rockets and drones continues along with supporting militias in other countries. Their small navy ships have been around several bombings and challenging warships in the strait of Hormuz. Iran is a regional power who would like to stay in control. 

However the leadership is aging and population is suffering under economic blockades. There are rumors of a nuclear agreement circulating to open up their economy.

 

North Korea 

Kim Jung Un has stayed in power with constant threat of war, people who admire and love him, and being unpredictable enough no one is sure if he would use nuclear weapons. It is a porcupine defense, too much trouble to take over his country.

 

Asia

Asian economies are growing 7.3%. Mask wearing, tracking infections and isolation of the sick contained the pandemic mostly. These countries are growing well.

 

Japan

World’s 3^rd largest economy is growing and low unemployment. Effective pandemic response has been helpful.

 

Indonesia

The world’s 4^th largest by population and 10^th largest economy. Diverse population groups and 1,700 islands. Indonesia has been growing since becoming a democracy. There are still issues including the pandemic, but an overlooked opportunity for most of the world’s businesses.

 

Mexico 

Economy is growing healthy 3.8% in 2021. Recent updates to NAFTA and increasing education of population is helping growth. The issue is drugs gangs and violence. If under control, growth would be stronger. Neighbor to the north is issue with demand for illegal drugs.

 

South America 

Individual countries are making the news for pandemic denial (Brazil), or socialistic government corruption and failure (Venezuela). Did you know at one time Argentina was the world’s 6^th largest economy?

Many other countries including Argentina have healthily growth in their economies. This is an area more investment should be made.

 

Africa

Political wars, drought and locust have been in the news. But this is misleading as education and economies are growing. 

China has been investing in African countries and hoping to grow another breadbasket to feed their population. Major cities are as modern as the rest of the world. Another area investments need to be made. European companies are already interested.

 

Summary

The combination of political risk, egocentric leaders, an ongoing pandemic, plus rising shipping costs have made moving supply chains, reshoring or near shoring more popular recently. Look for resiliency as well as costs when investing in new production lines. Evaluate where your current suppliers could have issues during the next few years. China is shaking up the world again. Expect other countries will benefit.

Relocating is Hard Work

 Changing jobs while maintaining your home life is difficult. Your old routines are gone. You have to learn new products, services, software and possibly technologies. Add in new responsibilities, new coworkers, schedule and a different commute. The way to get things done and who does them is different.

 

You can see why onboarding new employees is important for success. Companies with poor onboarding lose good people to other opportunities.

 

Fortunately with just changing jobs, your social life, friends and family remain. Your family does not need new housing, schools, and jobs. Relocating across states is much more difficult with added disruptions. You may be the only one affected if you are lucky.

 

Relocating nationally or internationally raises the levels of disruptions. Family, friends, neighbors, associates, small businesses you patronize, your kid’s schools, your church, places you volunteer or donate blood are a little affected. You now need new place to live, registration, insurance, doctor, dentist, hair cutter, mechanic, gym, food stores, and places to go on weekends. Language and pronunciation are different. Moving to SoCal exposed my lack of Spanish, and NOLA my lack of French. Food is different. Cafe de Lait and Community Coffee in NOLA replaces Starbucks. Few chain grocery stores, and cannot find coffee ice cream. Who knew? Is it any wonder people return home if not taken care of? Welcoming and onboarding people is important for team building.

 

Arrived in New Orleans same way arrived in Everett. Long multiple day drive with packed trunk and back seat. Mostly clothes, towels, dishes, silverware, pots and pans, small appliances, small toolbox, table with legs unscrewed, and couple folding chairs. Buy a bed, mattress, office chair, monitor, food and minimum items necessary to get through for months until household can be moved. You don’t realize how much you enjoy home.

 

Been here ~2.5 months, been to the office handful of times (Covid), and beginning to find places without phone map. Streets are beginning to make sense although there have been wrong turns and U-turns. Not sure can find landmarks at night yet. Been to French Quarter twice, and found safe places to run. Eventually have to find restaurants and new volleyball teams. Buying a house will follow.

 

My blessings have been my coworkers and boss who have been wonderfully helpful. One offered to pick up anything I need during a sick day, even though lives 25 miles out of way. Prior boss recommended his doctor and dentist. Other coworkers share work processes, software, restaurants, shopping and took me to lunch to get settled. Helps other new hires here sharing knowledge.

 

Have done this several times. Around one and half years the new place will feel like home. You have friends, a social life developing, and a routine to develop. Am looking forward to the day.

Coronavirus Update

 Back in March was living 13 miles from 1^st breakout in Kirkland WA, and wrote about early Covid-19 info and research last May “Making Sense from Noise”. Unfortunately became political which is not the way to solve contagious diseases. Updating known facts below:

• Covid-19 is not a flu. Attacks nasal passages, lungs, blood circulation, organs, brain and more. 
• New and novel, no one has resistance. Everyone can catch Covid-19. Friends from teenagers to 84 (being careful) still caught it. Paraphrasing Matthew, rain falls on the just and the unjust. 
• Highly contagious causing local breakouts.  If you haven’t caught it, you are just lucky. Everyone in your circle has their circle and on. All it takes is one infection to spread through groups. 
• Transmission mostly aerosols in air. Less likely to get from touching surfaces.
• New variations are being discovered. These mutations are normal since another corona virus, the common cold has been around for centuries overcoming immunity.
• More contagious variations have been found in Brittan, South Africa, South America, and California. By summer these will be dominant strains. Local breakouts hit R3 which is very dangerous. R3 = each infected person infects 3 others.
• Wide ranges how people are affected by Covid-19. Possibly 2 of 3 don’t realize they have it. Others wind up hospitalized or on ventilators. Of known cases, the death rate has been ~3%.
• Recovered does not mean healthy. ~10% of serious cases have extend symptoms including reduced breathing ability, weakened physical shape, brain fog, and painful symptoms.
• 6 feet and 10 minutes are not magical protections. You can get infected further and faster.

 

Staying healthy

• Mask up, they work. Flu rates have fallen worldwide this year. Must cover your nose! 3 layers of cloth or disposables help reduce infections. KN-95 and fitted N-95 are gold standards.
• Try to keep your hands off your face. (My weakness) Can transfer aerosols to yourself.
• Frequent hand washing, especially before eating.
• Treatments are improving, and early intervention is helpful.
• Vaccines are effective, and people who said they weren’t going to take them are signing up.
• Even if you had Covid-19 you need a vaccine to resist other variations.
• Social interactions, phone and video calls help mental health. 
• Get treatment if you are suffering from depression or other symptoms. Earlier the better.
• Avoid eating indoors, avoid large groups, avoid group singing, and limit being unmasked even if vaccinated. Anyone can be a carrier.

 

Rates have been falling lately. New cures are coming for the infected. The rollout of vaccines has been slower than desired. Seeing improvements, up to ~100,000 vaccinations per week here in Louisiana. 

 

The biggest issue is corona fatigue. Exercise, meditate, pray, express yourself, avoid inundating yourself, and stay social despite physically distances. “This too shall pass” has gotten me through other crises.

 

Stats from Worldometers.info very informative worldwide.

Happy 2021

 At 12:01 am January 1^st, all Hindsight is truly 2020 😀

(lost who to credit for this)

 

First let us acknowledge parts of 2020 were horrible – pandemic, economic, layoffs, illnesses, politics, weather, earthquakes, volcanos and deaths. There is an emotional toll for isolation and canceling events and vacations.

 

However there were good parts to 2020 to recognize – adapting, resilience and recovery. Give yourself and people around you credit for what went right.

 

We set goals for each year for many reasons. The people who recognize and write down why this is a goal are much more likely to persist through hardships and learning events to succeed. Worthwhile goals like learning new skills take several years to accomplish.

 

Losing 10 pounds was a goal one year, but the reason is wanted good health for rest of life. Hitting 192 lbs. left me feeling lousy for no easy to see reason, and could see myself on path to adult onset diabetes which affected my dad. That motivated me to make permanent changes which led to weight loss. Lost 15 lbs. over 18 months and have kept it off about 15 years now. How? Cut portions, carbs, sweets and started tracking weight and steps daily. Have simple 10 year old spreadsheet. Could see the results of my weekly efforts and adjust actions. 

 

Determine why you want that goal. What are the benefits? Emergency savings has made unexpected expenses a minor inconvenience instead of a major financial challenge to be overcome. 

 

One goal that has remained constant for 30 years is to earn more. Forces me to learn new skills and take more responsibilities every year. Being more valuable has improved my work and given me more options for employment or self employment. 

 

The world changes every year, so do you. Give yourself credit for your successes. Celebrate them. Then create more. Understand why to make your goals happen.

Wishing everyone a happy, blessed and healthy new year 

Happy Pandemic Thanksgiving

 2020 has been an odd year to have gratitude. Bittersweet is a good description. There has been a lot of bad news, Covid-19, industries cratered, layoffs, no vacations, laptop died, and more. If you are worn out by restrictions, you are not alone.

If you lost family, friends or coworkers you miss them. Grieving and thankfulness tough combination. It’s always okay to grieve.

However you have decided to celebrate, enjoy yourself. Take precautions. Call family and friends, talk about old times, make small talk, tell dad jokes, and have good food. Today is not the day to solve world problems. Be present and this is what you will be grateful for in the future.

Also thankful 2021 is coming :) 

What Are You Telling Yourself?

Self talk is important to your success, or your lack of success.

Rarely do people succeed on first try, or the second. Success is built over time and effort. You have to overcome adversity. No matter what happens to us, it is how we react that matters more.

 

Positive thinking is no miracle cure. It doesn’t replace collaborating, experimenting, trials, planning, learning, nor failures. The habit of positive self talk is motivation to try again. Break down what you need to do to the smallest effort and start.

 

Victim talk where the world is against you, you think you have no control, you are powerless to do anything. “Look you don’t understand, …”. “They won’t let me…”. It discourages you from changing or even trying. It is not true, you have choices. Terina Allen deep dives this subject in her article below. 

 

Healthy self talk often starts, “Next time this happens, I will …”. This means you have learned something from the experience.

 

No one is perfect! We all need time to feel sorry for ourselves. The gift is to not stay stuck there. 

 

Don’t feel one failure or setback will stop you from coming back. It takes time and effort to improve or try something new. Don’t be afraid to try again in different or better circumstances. And yes we may fail again.

 

Prayer is important for us. It is not only for the surprise test in school. It focuses us on how we are to contribute, not solve it on our own. Ask whatever you wish.

 

“For I know the plans I have for you, declares the LORD, plans for wholeness and not for evil, to give you a future full of hope.” (Jer 29:11 ESV)

 

Forbes - This Is The Saddest Thing In The World That People Tell Themselves

https://www.forbes.com/sites/terinaallen/2019/11/15/this-is-the-saddest-thing-in-the-world-that-people-tell-themselves/#4a38951c22ad

 

Keep Calm and Carry On

 Our world has been disrupted. Covid-19 keeps spreading. Working or studying from home almost feels normal. If we are still working, many coworkers, friends and family are not. Multiple industries have cratered. Among ~400 engineers with notice will need a new job in November, and ~12,600 laid off this year in WA. Far from alone.

 

The expression above is British. During the nightly bombings they slept in bomb shelters not knowing if they would survive. In the morning they went to work and prepared for war. This extended months and years with no clue as to when it would end. Admire the people who went through World War 2 daily despite the hardships. They planned and executed projects to win a four and half year war. Frankly they saved the world.

 

Few people thrive in uncertainty. Who does? It is stressful, hard to make plans, confusing what to do next or figure out your options. Usually are too many choices in life. Second everyone wants to know when is it going to end? But no one knows.

 

Remember this too shall pass. Take a deep breath and pick something to do now. Does not have to be the perfect thing to do. Something else will be next. Just break things down and start small. Give yourself grace to make mistakes.

 

Decisions don’t have to be made immediately. Talk with other people who have been in or are in your situation. There are support groups for near any situation. Helping support other people will help you cope. Create more options by researching industries and careers using your skills. You need plan A, plan B and maybe more during a recession. Unemployment normally covers 26 weeks with a 13 week extension. Not much time to find work.

 

My plan A - Laid off from Boeing Commercial Airplanes, find work within Defense Space & Security or Global Systems. Plan B - nationwide job search for production/manufacturing engineering positions in aerospace, defense and space. Expand target industries if not finding opportunities. Plan C - supplement earnings with gig work. So far networking and implementing plan A.

 

Able to relocate, an option most people don’t have. They have to look for alternate careers in their neighborhood. Look at what is important to your life. Having relocated several times, do not recommend relocating for most people. Difficult to give up family, friends and support systems to start over.

 

If you are in this situation, feel free to reach out to me. Been here before and still saying my prayers. Start by reading Change Comes in a Minute. Adaptability, resilience and resourcefulness are learned by experience. You will be surprised how much you already have.

http://problem1solver.blogspot.com/2020/07/change-comes-in-minute.html  

Jury Duty and Ruth Bader Ginsburg

 Spent interesting 7 days on a criminal jury.  Multiple charges at different locations, and defendant had already plead guilty to one charge. 

Everyone took their responsibilities seriously. The issues were complex and everyone spoke up clearly their views and why they held them. Several people were undecided on certain positions and listened to the debate and reviewed evidence. Respect led to good decisions by the jury.

Judge O Snohomish County Superior Court was impressive how he kept order and respect. He kept testimony moving and made decisions outside the jury’s view. Also apologized for some of the inconveniences of the courtroom and Covid19 safety measures. 

Observed the prosecutor and defendant’s attorney work together with respect. Spent more time with police, bailiffs and security attending court. They treated everyone professionally and respectfully. Use to spend more time with police when use to shoot competitively, and found enjoyed their company. With all the protests, still is important to remember everyone is human.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg passing was a surprise after we were done. RBG made our law and country better by pointing out how lesser status hurt both men and women. There is room in our country for rights for everyone, and RBG’s eloquent descents often made it clear. They will be studied for years to come.

Her marriage was a supportive partnership and family. Guests and friends always welcome. Marvin Ginsburg retired as Tax Attorney with her appointment to the Supreme Court. "She doesn't talk to me about cooking, and I don't talk to her about law." 

Her friendships with people who didn’t agree with her views like Antonio ‘Nino’ Scalia are an example how to live in these times. Her life is a testament of trying to improve peoples lives and being human herself. 

Do not have the spelling nor able to pronounce last name of the judge, but think heard a Caribbean accent. He and many other judges who do not fit the old image of judges are part of RGB’s legacy.

Pandemic Labor Day

What an unusual Labor Day. 8.8% unemployment. U-6 unemployment including discouraged, marginally attached and part time is 14. 2%. Middle class who normally earn enough working visiting food banks. 4 in 10 are new clients. Those who use to help others, now need help. Newly unemployed or underemployed depending on their industry. Others may be working remotely the office.  Feels weird during the pandemic.

Parents are trying to figure out how to best educate their children, remotely or in class? How do you pay the utilities, rent or mortgage? Will they lose their home? Where can we live? Small family landlords providing affordable housing are worried they will lose properties, years of work and their hard earned money invested for their future. May see apartments converting to condos based on housing demand.

Stress on people is much higher this year. My suburban/rural county overdose deaths are up ~20%. If you feel lost or desperate, call for help. [800-273-8255 or text CONNECT to 741741] Those of us in faith know God still loves us. But we admit stress this year.

Unemployment is designed to help workers for ~6 months replacing only ~30% of prior income until you find work. Today’s uncertain world may mean many months to 2 years unemployment, taking jobs paying much less, or forced early retirement.  Unhappy both political parties cannot come up with a way to replace 70-80% of people’s income.

People who are unemployed are still as valuable as before. Successful leaders and entrepreneurs will figure out how to take advantage of the available talent to grow their business. If you are looking for a job, you have to get creative. Find your most valuable talents and skills to transfer to another industry. Gig work may have to carry you through. Downsize your home or live with roommates to lower costs.

One college friend has been searching nationwide for opportunities in his industry. In 3 month he had 2 hiring manager interviews. He is getting more interest as safety manager than chemical process engineer manager. What experiences or skills do you have that are in demand by other industries? Research where hiring is happening and see how you can help.

Be thankful for the work you have or had. Tell stories how relatives or you survived past crisis’s. Grew up with stories how my grandparents thrived during the great depression, and how hard it was for neighbors they fed. Remember former coworkers, friends and family. Reach out and remind then “This too will pass”. 

In a year or two the economy will be growing briskly. Very optimistic about where we will be in 5 years. But getting there may involve pain. Enjoy the holiday weekend.

New York Times - Minivans at the Food Pantry

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/food-pantries-hunger-us.html