Keep Calm and Carry On

 Our world has been disrupted. Covid-19 keeps spreading. Working or studying from home almost feels normal. If we are still working, many coworkers, friends and family are not. Multiple industries have cratered. Among ~400 engineers with notice will need a new job in November, and ~12,600 laid off this year in WA. Far from alone.

 

The expression above is British. During the nightly bombings they slept in bomb shelters not knowing if they would survive. In the morning they went to work and prepared for war. This extended months and years with no clue as to when it would end. Admire the people who went through World War 2 daily despite the hardships. They planned and executed projects to win a four and half year war. Frankly they saved the world.

 

Few people thrive in uncertainty. Who does? It is stressful, hard to make plans, confusing what to do next or figure out your options. Usually are too many choices in life. Second everyone wants to know when is it going to end? But no one knows.

 

Remember this too shall pass. Take a deep breath and pick something to do now. Does not have to be the perfect thing to do. Something else will be next. Just break things down and start small. Give yourself grace to make mistakes.

 

Decisions don’t have to be made immediately. Talk with other people who have been in or are in your situation. There are support groups for near any situation. Helping support other people will help you cope. Create more options by researching industries and careers using your skills. You need plan A, plan B and maybe more during a recession. Unemployment normally covers 26 weeks with a 13 week extension. Not much time to find work.

 

My plan A - Laid off from Boeing Commercial Airplanes, find work within Defense Space & Security or Global Systems. Plan B - nationwide job search for production/manufacturing engineering positions in aerospace, defense and space. Expand target industries if not finding opportunities. Plan C - supplement earnings with gig work. So far networking and implementing plan A.

 

Able to relocate, an option most people don’t have. They have to look for alternate careers in their neighborhood. Look at what is important to your life. Having relocated several times, do not recommend relocating for most people. Difficult to give up family, friends and support systems to start over.

 

If you are in this situation, feel free to reach out to me. Been here before and still saying my prayers. Start by reading Change Comes in a Minute. Adaptability, resilience and resourcefulness are learned by experience. You will be surprised how much you already have.

http://problem1solver.blogspot.com/2020/07/change-comes-in-minute.html  

Giving Thanks on Memorial Day

Family members serving in the military influenced us. May not be your parents, may be other generations like grand parents or great uncles. Their attitudes influence family members and get passed down to children for generations to come.

Service men and women are taught to deal with adversity. No plan survives first encounters with the enemy. We learn from what did not go well and failures. New plans, processes or strategies evolve, and then are tried quickly. Successes and reasoning are taught next generations. Resilience along with laughter to survive troubles.

Don’t underestimate the sacrifices and learning at home. Mothers and grandparents often worked and raised successful children during trying years. Their lessons permeate our culture. My great uncles and uncles who served taught my dad who shared their life lessons with us.

Their lessons are why we will survive the pandemic, social distancing, job losses, grief and suffering. Generations before us sacrificed to thrive. We will sacrifice.

This year first responders and medical professionals share the stage with our military. We have lost many good people and colleagues in our pandemic despite best efforts. Keep all people who serve in your prayers.

Your Job Is Not Secure

Especially if you are over 50. The Urban Institute study by Richard W. Johnson and Peter Goesselin tracked 2,086 people from 1992 to 2018 until they were 65. Study showed regardless of education level 28% were laid off / business closed, 13% quit for job dissatisfaction/boss, 13% unexpected retirement, 9% health / disability / family, and 2% other. Total 66% careers disrupted with over 6 months unemployment or family income down by 50%. Only 19% choose to retire and 16% are still working after 65.

Employers have an aversion to hiring older workers. “Only 1 in 10 of involuntarily separated workers ever earned as much after their separation as before. Median household income fell 42 percent following an employer-related involuntary job separation”. 

Interesting most job growth is over 55, but mostly low paying jobs like “home health-care, personal health-care and in janitorial services. It might be the bargaining power of older people is just not pushing up wages,” - labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci.

What can we do?

1) Save more money for retirement. Every year when you get a raise, increase your % retirement savings and your emergency savings. Avoiding unnecessary debt. Buy a smaller home and less expensive or used cars.

2) Keep learning and developing skills in demand while working. Research your and other industries. What skills do your company need they are having a hard time hiring? What skills related your existing strengths are other employers having a hard time hiring? These jobs should pay better. If your employer won’t pay for it, you pay for it. Community colleges are very affordable. Be more productive, a revenue producer and value creator. Make sure your boss realizes that.

3) If you are laid off, deal with the emotional loss first. Take a little time to grieve your loss, work is a large part of identity. Start collecting unemployment and find what benefits you can get immediately. Work a taxi job beneath your education to get through. Work off any kind helps your confidence. Consider freelance work full time. Companies often hire experience people at higher pay on projects, rather than hire full time.

4) Keep your health up. Exercise and eat healthy to stay energetic.  You will enjoy your life better than sedentary coworkers. Plus you will be more productive and a key person to keep.

5) Plan on downsizing your condo/house after you retire. Move to a community or near family in an affordable area when your income goes down. After layoffs my wife and I shared an apartment with a roommate to save on expenses until our income recovered.

None of this is pleasant to consider. However only 1 in 8 work till full retirement age, we must prepare and expect difficulties in life. My preparations got me hired after 50 by a Fortune 100 company at a higher income. These steps will give you resilience and a better career.

Links to articles below:

Urban Institute ‘How Secure Is Employment at Older Ages?’

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/99570/how_secure_is_employment_at_older_ages_2.pdf

Marketwatch - ‘Holding on to a job after age 50 isn’t always easy’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/holding-on-to-a-job-after-age-50-isnt-always-easy-2020-02-07

AARP - ‘Workplace Age Discrimination Still Flourishes in America’

https://www.aarp.org/work/working-at-50-plus/info-2019/age-discrimination-in-america.html

Labor 2030 Bain Study on Demographics, Automation and Inequality

Not good for average workers, and challenging business leaders.

Demographics are changing due to the aging boomers retiring and smaller birth rates. Bain is predicting employment growth to drop to 0.4%. Smaller workforce growth is a negative for economic growth. 50% of US GDP growth has been due to larger workforces.

Recruiting new and replacing skilled employees will be a challenge. Bain believes this will benefit younger & high skill workers in the short term. Companies will offer higher wages, flexible work arrangements and more attractive corporate cultures.

Mid- and low-skilled workers, the majority of the workforce, face at least a decade of disruption due to new automation technologies. Automation has the potential to increase income and wealth inequality. Bain believes only 20% of high skilled workers will benefit. Approximately 80% of workers will be affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement or a combination of the two.

Bain estimates that by 2030 these technologies could increase labor productivity by an average of 30%. Any big jump in productivity can be highly disruptive. By 2030, employers will need 20% to 25% fewer workers, equivalent to 30 million to 40 million jobs in the US. The coming phase of automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs.

Bain concludes resilience is a higher strategic priority. Resilient businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and regain momentum. Prepare for volatility and macro changes to business environment like rising interest rates. Be close to your customers. Instead of financial engineering, faster adaptability, lower debt and increase reserves.

Bain wrote this great report for businesses. We can learn from it as well.

We need to be resilient in our careers as well. Take on additional projects and responsibilities. Keep learning new skills, new software and take classes. Keep improving your services and offerings. Rote repeatable jobs are the ones that are going away. Learning and changing times are not.

http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx

Living with Uncertainty

My co-workers and I have been living with uncertainty. The project ~45 of us have been working on ends October 20^th. Fortunately last month was told no one else gets laid off.  We just do not know if we will be working 787 or the other programs.  Next week may find out.

~20 of my co-workers will be working in Renton, about 26 miles from the Everett Plant. May be one of them, at least have a job. Several other co-worker have been laid off or taken voluntary layoff. We have been working most of the year with this hanging over our heads.

Surprisingly productivity has still been good. My co-workers and I kept up with our workload. Research was done on openings and what happens if we got layoff notices. Discussions happened around the water cooler. But until people had to prepare for changes, work got completed on time.

Humor has been a coping mechanism. Co-worker said this week, “They told me they were arguing who I would work for. But they didn’t tell me if they were arguing to get me or who got stuck with me.” Most people now know where they are going. So been telling people, “feel like the little kid picked last for teams” :) for the last couple weeks.

Always been more comfortable with uncertainty than most engineers. Every project has required a redesign or changes from customer feedback. No one knows how well new products will sell. We start projects based on best guess. Economies change, competitors offer new products, and life happens.  Results do not turn out as expected. Best sellers are often version of the original. WD-40 is the 40^th version of the lubricant.

To deal with uncertainty with resilience, focus on what you are doing now. You can’t control the situation. Helps to plan if the worst happens what you will do. Apply for jobs in advance, update your resume in case, and cut optional spending. You only need one job. Another opportunity will show up. The worst usually does not happen.

Sometimes it helps to image talking to an older you several years after this was resolved. What did you learn from the change? Should I have worried so much? (Usually no.) Every job change has expanded my knowledge and added new skills that helped my career. Did not feel good at the time, but worked out for my benefit.

My faith is another reason am not worried. God has a plan for us, and since I gave these challenges to God, my life is so much better than I would have expected. Working in 7 states (so far) was not my plan, but met great people because I moved. Hard to give up friends and co-workers to move, but thankful for all my opportunities.

Summarizing - You can’t control what happens to you. You can only control how you react and think about it. Resilience happens when you try to Find the Good, the Humor and Have Faith It Will Work Out. If nothing else you have another story to tell your children and friends.

The Resilient Employee

Do you want an employee who over-reacts to provocation from a customer? How much business could you lose because of one overstressed reaction? No one really wants to find out.

Resilient people do good work on bad days. They don’t take it out on customers, nor on their co-workers. You can tell they are tired, you can tell they don’t feel well, but they still do good work with a minimum of drama. Tomorrow they are back at it, feeling better, listening, collaborating and doing good work.

Resilience comes from having survived tough times, coming back from events out of our control, and preserving through failures and bad experiences. It is a faith that we can make it through crazy customers, clueless bosses and co-worker visiting from outer space. Just another day folks, nothing to see here. (or is there more?)

Emotional strength and intelligence comes from knowing life is about more than you. Common Goals and values drive better behavior. It is taking care of others. Serving the public. Loving people. Especially when they don’t deserve it.

What do you do when your world changes? Where do you find your resiliency? Is it in your history? in your family’s stories? Your uncle who served in the war? Your neighbor who is always calming and interested? Or is peace something deeper. After all God is Love.

Think for Yourself

There are always gurus, elites, experts and false prophets who want to tell you what to think. Follow us and all you have to do is … Invest in Penny Stocks and make a fortune. The future is plastics. Real estate will go up forever.

History is full of Horrors - Mao’s Cultural Revolution, Hitler’s Nazi concentration camps, Leopold II of Belgium in Congo, Jozef Stalin Russian Gulags & Purges, Hideki Tojo Japan civilian deaths in WW2, Ismail Enver Ottoman cleansings, Pot Pol Cambodia and Kim Il Sung North Korea purges & concentration camps. These leaders each killed between 1.5 million to 20+ million people during their reigns.

Plenty of people will run your life if you let them. Even though am religious, history has churches, temples and mosques that advocated conquering neighbors.

The secret is to listen to everyone, then make up your own mind. Disagree with what makes you uncomfortable. Be nice, but make them defend their ideas. Try to improve their thinking as well as your own.

I read people who I disagree with. Paul Krugman comes to mind. It is not that he is not smart nor doesn’t make good points. There are many times I agree with Paul. It is my worldview does not believe central planning can control something as complicated as an economy. If anything excessive government regulations have reduced the US economy by 1 - 2% over the last two decades. Unlimited stimulus by the Fed has produced less and less economic improvements. But by reading Paul I find I have to think about my assumptions and ideas to see if they are correct.

The problem we all have Blind Spots and Confirmation Bias. We look for information that confirms what we believe, and ignore evidence we may be missing the mark.

My saving grace is if someone else has a better idea, or better combination of ideas, I give them credit and advocate the better ideas. Am smart, but we can always build better plans with small motivated groups. We can learn from everyone.

By the way you have permission to disagree with me, and tell me about it.

Good Thinking Everyone.