Boeing Knows How to Fly

Had a friend say she would not fly on 737Max. Can’t blame her all the news reports proclaiming end of the world.

Here is how I answered her: 737 is not a new airplane. It started commercial service in 1968. (she “Did not know that”.) The Max is an updated version. Over 10,000 737s have been delivered to airlines all over the world. 

Daily over 10,000 Boeing airplanes of different models 737, 747, 757, 767, 777 & 787 fly. There are thousands of Boeing military aircraft and helicopters flying daily including F-15s, F-18s, KC-46, P-8, C-17 & a new trainer on the way. Don’t forget Delta rockets. Boeing is flying every day.

Boeing has revised the software, actually starting before the second crash. The problem was not comparing angle of attack sensors on both sides, plus revised training for the pilots. Angle of attack sensors have had ~20 failures over 17 years. Almost understandable someone may have assumed wasn’t necessary. However Boeing and FAA both should have caught that.

Assured her I would fly the 737Max today and not afraid to put my family on one or any other Boeing. Just flew cross country and back on 757s.

Why am I so confident? The people I worked with in the factory on 787. They are our babies. Our job is to make near perfect airplanes, and we care.

Disclosure - 5% of my 401K is in Boeing stock. Have no inside information. What I know is from published public information. No idea when regulatory approval is coming, just confident it will. 

Suspect the news cycle will die down, and people's memory will fade in a year or two once the 737Max is flying again. Can’t wait to see it flying, getting people to where they are going.

Generations Don’t Divide Us

Greatest

Silent

Boomer

Gen X

Millennial

Post Millennial (Need a better name people)

Grew up, live, work and church with all generations. With all the variation we all have in abilities, athletics, career, disposition, education, experiences, family, friends, geography, heritage, religious beliefs, scholarship, talents and wealth. Wonderful, interesting, different, frustrating, impossible, people first and foremost.

How can this diversity all be reduced to an age range? The theory is common experiences in our youth affect people alike. But don’t we view the same events differently? Don’t we learn and grow during our life? How can we be categorized by decades?

Studying the bible, people from over 2,000 years ago act the way we do today. Same fears and worries. Have babies changed? Don’t children still grow the same way they always have? Don’t awkward teenagers grow into amazing adults? 

More important we pay attention to people we meet than divide each other by a theory. 

People are people. We need to be acknowledged, respected, listened to and loved.

Safe Travels and Happy Thanksgiving

Taking a vacation day to stay out of Seattle’s Wednesday afternoon traffic horror show. Starting my holiday weekend early. 

I am grateful for my wonderful family, fellow volunteers, talented co-workers, and all my friends who keep me engaged and interested in our world. Thank you all.

Wishing you a happy Thanksgiving with family and loved ones. Enjoy good meals, conversation, and remembering old friends who can’t be with us. Then safe trips home.

"Always direct your thoughts to those truths that will give you confidence, hope, joy, love, thanksgiving, and turn away your mind from those that inspire you with fear, sadness, depression." - Bertrand Wilbertforce

Thanksgiving and Holidays

Relax. Everyone has made an effort to be there. The hosts have really worked hard to welcome you and everyone. It is stressful. Smile and greet everyone.

People are there you don’t know. You are likely nervous, so are they. Welcome everybody assuming best intentions.

No one has changed since last time. Everyone still has their annoying habits. Including you. But we have all learned from living one more year.

Politics are a minefield. Nobody has the same views on everything. Expect them to support other candidates or positions. You are not there to convert them to your views. Besides no one has all the right answers.

We gather to celebrate. Those who made it this year, those who can’t come, and remembering those no longer with us. Sharing success and failures, children, and another year of life. 

Success formula for gatherings - Relax, Tolerate, Celebrate and Enjoy

Preventing Dementia

New study by University of Michigan shows most people do not understand their risk of dementia, nor best ways to prevent it. Not understanding the risk, they may not make the best choices. 

First reasonably assess your health. If you are in very good or excellent health, you have lowered your risk substantially. People in fair to poor mental health have the highest risk, however mental health by itself has low causality. 

What can you do to lower your risk of dementia? Research has shown that regular exercise, a good diet, limiting alcohol and not smoking make dementia less likely. If you have chronic health problems like diabetes, take care of them. Surprising only ~5% of people ask their doctors during visits or physicals what to do to prevent dementia.

Vitamins and supplements have not been shown to help (I do take them). There are claims for mental exercises like puzzles. There is stronger evidence for playing chess, taking a class or reading about unfamiliar subjects. 

Social activities and exercise like walking are valuable boosting attitude and health. See “Counting Little Wins” how to keep active and healthy mindsets.

Dementia is personal to me. There are no proven cures. My grandfather had Alzheimer’s ~6 years, my father had dementia symptoms 1.5 years after strokes, and my wife’s mother has dementia for the last 8 years. Seeing their struggles and downward trajectory are why sharing this information. Reasonable prevention will improve your and your family’s life.

Links to study and article below:

Perception of Dementia Risk and Preventive Actions Among US Adults Aged 50 to 64 Years

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2753774

Americans don’t understand the dementia risk they face - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-dont-understand-the-dementia-risk-they-face-2019-11-15?mod=MW_story_top_stories

Counting Little Wins

https://problem1solver.blogspot.com/2019/07/counting-little-wins.html

Old Age is Made Up

MIT AgeLab punched holes in the accepted viewpoint of aging:

·      The 50-plus population controls 83% of household wealth in the US.

·      Account for $7.6 trillion in spending, more than those under 50.

·      Over 50 outspend online 2:1. 

·      73% of 65-plus population is online, and half own smartphones.

·      Only 35% of people 75 or older consider themselves “old”.

Why should they consider themselves old? Older individuals are generally healthier than generations past. They remain engaged and relevant.

·      50-plus business leaders start twice as many successful companies as ~30 YO business leaders. 

·      Sister-in-law’s 83 YO father takes care of 100 acres and started new hobby woodworking 2-3 years ago. (getting really good)

·      Her 81 YO mom takes care of horses and mucks the stalls after 2 hip replacements.

·      Uncle celebrated 85^th birthday leaving New Jersey for Arizona senior basketball tournament with his team. 

·      Komo news interviewed 2 women celebrating their 104^th birthdays. Each walks separately over a mile daily around Ballard, WA.

Business seems stuck in outdated narratives. Advertising focuses on the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups, which have less money to spend. Half of long time jobholders are pushed out before they planned to retire. Many older workers have to fight outright ageism to prove their value. They are not considered for hiring, new assignments, or promotions.

Research does not confirm these beliefs. BMW experiments show: 

·      Productivity improves when work teams are intergenerational.

·      Age-diverse teams do better at problem-solving and generating ideas.

·      Older workers mentor and serve as role models.

These expectations are from 19^th century beliefs that the old run out of “Vital Energy”, like a worn out battery. Sex and manual labor were both considered to be especially draining. Science has disproven these theories.

These beliefs affect your careers and businesses. Have overheard HR discussions about the aging workers problem - people in their mid 30s and 40s. Despite record low unemployment and a skills shortage, these ageist beliefs persist.

Successful leaders need to provide better products and services for age diverse consumers. They need to lead teams with diverse cultures, backgrounds and ages. How can you start addressing these opportunities for your business?

“Old age” is made up—and this concept is hurting everyone 

MIT Technology Review

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614155/old-age-is-made-upand-this-concept-is-hurting-everyone/

Happy birthday to you, Madelyne and Kay

https://komonews.com/news/erics-heroes/erics-heroes-walking-is-the-fountain-of-youth-for-pair-of-104-year-old-women

Business is Not the Bad Guy

It’s a cliché in Hollywood movies where the businessman is evil. Dabney Coleman as a tyrannical, sexist boss in 9 to 5 comes to mind. When is the last movie you saw where the business owner was the hero? Not since Gung Ho about American workers working for Japanese ownership can I remember one movie.

Politician’s blame all your problems on business (or the other party). Truth is governments run on money generated by businesses. Governments don’t create wealth, governments tax it. 

Making more revenues than expenses is hard work, and people take risks to create businesses. They invest, spend their time, and often fail at businesses before they succeed. Most businesses fail in the first 5 years. Even when they succeed, family wealth is usually gone by the 3^rd generation. 

We need businesses - small, medium, large and international - to create growth and have jobs for people. People and their businesses built the United States. Most of us work for a company and our salaries come from the businesses. 

Gig workers are their own businesses. Was more difficult self-employed than as an employee. You do everything - sell, perform, administrative, taxes. Or you hire help when you can afford it.

Businesses are at their heart people serving people. Not faceless others. Support businesses, don’t blame businesses.

Build Resilient Communities

Some days going to work is a grind. Dreary commuting. Repeatedly walking in the door. How do you avoid the negativity?

Worked a lot of places in a 40+ year career, and it is not just your company. Negativity comes at us from everywhere. This time of the year doesn't help coming to work in the dark either. Nor do I like coming off daylight savings time, just feels gloomy. 

That said, here are ways make work more rewarding for yourself and your coworkers:

Gratitude starting the morning

Have a job, people & family like/love in my life. Warm bed. Decent health. I get to work with good people. Gratitude does not have to be anything big. Faith helps. Focus on the good as groggily try and get out the door.

Laugh

Councilor I know taught stressed out financial industry people to read the comic pages before starting work. Really improved teamwork, productivity and office collaboration. I listen to radio getting dressed & driving in and find something to smile about. Fortunate to laugh at my own foibles. "Those of us who can laugh at ourselves will be endlessly entertained." – Unknown

Eat healthy and exercise

If you feel good, easier when you need to put in extra effort. A walk often improves your mood. Look around for whatever makes you happy.

Learn something 

Always learning something new, might use or will be helpful in future brings joy.

Build community around you 

Smile. Greet people. Find out how they are today. Find something in common like families, hobbies, work or sports to talk about. Does not take much time. Some people respond only after 6 month to a year, and usually shocked/pleased when the breakthrough comes. Benefit comes when working/moving all over factory & offices if can say hi to one person, am okay, and then other people will work with me.

What you feel is not unusual. These are rewarding ways I learned to stay involved, productive, and enjoy my days. I plan to work another decade before a long active retirement. Enjoy your career as well.

Fear Holding You Back?

Of course it is. We hate losses more than we love gains. Worse are the unknowns. What will they say? Failure risks our status.

Starting something new requires us to be awkward and uncomfortable. Beginning requires multiple tries, fumbling and successful repetitions to learn. Mistakes will be made. Attempts will fail. 

Do you focus more on the short term than the longer term? To learn something you need to look forward to the after. What will success look like? More opportunities. More respect. More income?

Go start. Research. Ask friends or coworkers. Read books and articles. Watch YouTube. We will applaud your efforts now and when you succeed.

T. Boone Pickens Remembered

T. Boone Pickens Remembered

How many oilmen propose wind power? The late T. Boone Pickens did in 2007.  He sold his oil business, then opened BP Capital Management hedge funds at 68. Made his first billion at 70. Working with people, adjusting to changing markets, and charity mark his life.

Later in life he reported, “I have earned $4 billion, lost $2 billion and given $1 billion away.” In his 60+ year career T Boone Pickens had many successes, failures, and life’s comebacks.

T. Boone Pickens donated $11 million to the University of Texas Center for Brain Health in 2006. He was talked into having his brain scanned. His brain lite up like a man 30 years his junior. T. Boone was always more interested in being around sharp minds interested in what was new or changing.

Forbes has an article with T. Boone Pickens' Letter To The Class Of 2018. Let’s listen to his advice:

“A fool with a plan can beat a genius with no plan.” - His Father’s

“Keep focused. When you are hunting elephants, don’t get distracted chasing rabbits.”

“Don’t fall victim to what I call the ‘ready-aim-aim-aim-aim’ syndrome. You must be willing to fire.”

“Work hard. Come early, stay late.”

“Be the eternal optimist.”

“The higher the monkey climbs a tree, the more you can see his ass.” - Be confident, yet modest.

After describing his experiences and “Booneisms” he encourages us, “Now go get ‘em!”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tboonepickens/2018/05/11/ninety-years-of-lessons-learned-t-boone-pickens-letter-to-the-class-of-2018/#3d0b57b3e3c6

Your Wealthy Future

Creating Wealth is a decades long affair. Rarely happens overnight and a quick success can backfire.

A few people win lotto. Instant riches. But a few years later you find former winners in bankruptcy court. They did not know how to keep or invest money. Only how to spend it.

Basics Matter

Spend less than you bring home. 

Save for gifts, vacations, unexpected repairs and layoffs.

Pay off credit cards every month. Losing 18+% interest hurts.

Sign up for your 401K and take the company match minimum. Saving tax deferred your taxes go down more than take home pay.

Have insurance - auto, medical, long term care, renters or homeowners, plus a personal liability policy. Not having insurance can bankrupt you.

Attitude

Fear of Missing Out cause people to pay too much, buy luxuries or take expensive vacations. No one needs a $50,000 wedding. The debt incurred will hurt your relationship.

Diversify your investments. Nobody knows what stocks or bonds will do next. Everyone makes mistakes and have setbacks. Recessions and recoveries happen. Use ETFs - roughly 35% stocks, 55% bonds and 10% precious metals & REITs. 

Drive an uncool car. Cars lose so much value so quickly. Prefer 3-6 year old cars and paying cash. My investment advisor has only owned 4 Toyotas.

Investigate and talk with experienced people before buying. FOMO leads to over paying. Good investors don’t rush decisions, nor join in speculative manias. Bubbles burst and values return to earth quickly.

Real estate is not liquid. If you need to move selling costs are nearly 10%. Don’t buy too big of a home. Make sure the location fits your future plans, then check property is in good condition.

Time

First few years little accumulates in 401K or savings. After ~5 years the returns and dividends start adding up, plus debts are getting paid off. You can see where you are going.

Your mortgage use to be higher than rents. Ten years later less than renting a 2 bedroom apartment. Plus appreciation puts you are ahead.

Learn about subjects one at a time. No one knows everything. Admit you need to know more and ask what seem like foolish questions. If a salesperson is rushing your decision, sleep on it overnight and talk with advisors before buying. 

Your Future

Wealth and savings are desirable because they give you options. Paying for education, buying a home, or investing in a business or real estate. Your future self will be grateful for early sacrifices.

“These are my principles, and if you don’t like them … well, I’ve got others.” - Groucho Marx

Labor Day Reflections

Cloudy 57F morning run looks like the state of labor. Today will be clear and sunny holiday. Skilled and service workers have shortages. Salaries are slowly rising, if your work is in demand.

The future is not clear. Trade war with China affecting businesses and farmers. Slowing economies around the world. Italy and parts of Europe are in recession may slow our economy. Businesses are investing and hiring carefully, not in an expansion mode. The next five years may be challenging. However when has life ever not been challenging?

Today enjoy your holiday and the fruits of your labor. Tomorrow reflect on what your best skills are, what to learn that would help you, and who you can better serve. Research which skills pay more. Careers are built on learning and trying new things.

Benefits of Age

America is a youth culture. Youth is revered and celebrated. Young “Influencers” are the rage to follow. Celebrities tend to be young and beautiful.

Youth is an advantage for creativity and strength. Young inventors and scientists often make impressive leaps of thought. Experienced inventors and scientists combine ideas and processes in new ways. 

Most people start careers with hard physical work. As we gain experience we use our minds more than strength. 

Benefits of Age:

• Comfortable in and knowledgeable with the world
• Patience with process - not much is accomplished in 3 months, but amazing what can be done in 10 years
• Switch from Task to Relationship modes depending on situations
• Relate better with more diverse people
• More empathy due to experiences
• Enjoy other people’s success as much as our own
• Manage health better (but more to manage)
• Faith is stronger and based on experiences

Do you see young inexperienced graduates leading teams or large corporations? No. They have not developed skills to lead people, resolve issues, or experiences to draw on. Encourage your coworkers to develop creative and leadership skills. 

After all we were younger and needed guidance, encouragement and confidence to flourish.  

 “When setting out on a journey, do not seek advice from someone who has never left home.” ~ Rumi

Strategy for China Trade War

No quick resolution for Trade Dispute with China is coming soon. Neither side is backing down and tariffs (taxes) may expand to Europe in the future.

What can your businesses do with a supply chains in China? 

Start evaluating your future profit potential for products: Not every product needs to be relocated. Your growth lines need to be addressed while cash cow products with limited future may remain untouched. Your options:

Split Production: Leave existing production lines to service China and Europe, and move production for USA to North, Central or South America. Savings from shipping and carrying cost of inventory mitigate costs of separate production lines. 

Redesign new models to manufacture in new locations: New products generate more sales and profits. Why move old tools and machinery to a new location? Redesigned products often cost less and be differentiated for higher margin markets. Combine functions on one computer chip, mold parts, additive manufacture, and design for automation to reduce labor.

Raise your prices: Cost of production does not relate to how much products sell for. Spend more on marketing to improve branding and customer awareness. Consumer choice is emotional, not based on lowest cost. Consumers know prices are going up and will be less resistant. Profits will fund your changes.

The worst strategy is to be frozen. Explore your options and prioritize your investments.

Lifetime Learning and Curiosity Required

“In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists.” 

- Eric Hoffer, Author The Ordeal of Change (1963) & The True Believer (1951)

No education has ever been complete out of school.  New tools, material and processes improve any service or product. Competition forces businesses to lower costs every year. ~25% of today’s jobs did not exist 10 years ago.

Words are added every year, over 640 to Merriam-Webster dictionary. New meanings are given to old words. Qubit, Geosmin, or Bioabsorbable anyone?

There are more books written every day. New research daily. Ideas are promoted or disproved. Politics and the times change the way we look at things.

Technology is rapidly changing our work. Smart phones, 3D printers, advances in programming, modeling software, virtual training and business practices advance every year.

Be curious. Tomorrow will be different than today. People grow and change. Everyday I try to learn something new or stretch knowledge some way. What are you going to learn today?

Counting Little Wins

Diets don’t work. It’s hard to be disciplined to starve yourself for little reward day after day, week after week. Weight loss takes a lot of time.

Beating yourself up does not motivate you. It just depresses you and kills motivation.

Count little wins will motivate you. Skipped a cookie or snack, win. Walked at lunch, win. Parked further away, win. One less adult beverage, win. Lost a pound, win. Not binging full package of snacks, win. 

3 Rules:

1. You decide what a win is. No one else gets a say.

2. Count only wins. No counting losses.

3. No one is perfect. 

Messed up? Tomorrow is another day. I may mess it up again, am still looking at my wins. Reinforcement of wins keeps you going. Over time you will have results.

“If you don’t take care of yourself, no one else is going to do it for you.” - Jewish philosophy on uniqueness of our potential.

Space is Cool

On the 50^th anniversary of the moon landing, why space is still cool:

  Weightlessness.

  International Space Station uses international technologies – Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States.

  Space walks.

  Every space program experienced failures.

  “Space is hard.” – Scott Kelly after a SpaceX rocket failure.

  Traveling in a Vacuum.

  Lives were lost. Hard lessons learned.

  Moon dust is dangerous, blocks vision, sticks to & degrades materials, grinds up machinery and people may be allergic.

Lunar Rovers.

 China, India, Israel, Luxembourg, New Zealand, and Singapore are exploring space & the moon.

  Slide rules sent astronauts to the moon.

  On budget and on schedule.

  “No one born after 1935 has stepped on the moon.” – Burt Rutan, Aerospace & Spaceship designer

  It will always involve risks.

There is so much we don’t know. Men and Women need to return.

Why You Need a Vacation

Breaks: Weekend trips. Prefer week off (plus a recovery day). You need a break away from your patterns .

Habits: Vacations make us change. Hiking with bear pepper spray. National parks have no or limited cell service and internet. Use those funny things called maps. 

People: Met great people from all over. NY, OH, CA, AZ, MO, TX, AK, MT, ID, OR, WA and Asia. 

Memories: parks have mountains, glaciers, lakes, rivers, alpine meadows, and wildlife. Saw elk, moose, mountain goats, bighorn sheep, eagles, hawks, range cattle, bison/buffalo, horses, prairie dogs, ground squirrels, fox, black bear, and grizzly bear cub. 

Perspective: Climbing to 7,200 feet, rerouting roads & hikes, improvising cooking meals, seeing mountains, changing weather, and stepped on by a horse; how hard can this production problem be?

Take a break from your daily worries and routines. Enjoy your vacation :)

            Glacier National Park, Montana. United States Alps.

Mid Year Investing Change

Not an investment guru nor paid financial advisor. Just interested amateur who is convinced No One Really Knows what is going to happen. The stock market often surprises me with its ongoing changes. Stock market is driven more by investor psychology/feelings than statistics or data. Made more sense once figured that out.

Building wealth is making good consistent decisions to save and invest steadily while avoiding debt. Very few lottery winners have their windfalls 10 years later, spending wildly and taking high investment risks. Like they felt guilty having wealth. 

The S&P 500 is up ~17% this year after a ~10% drop in the 4^thquarter of 2018. The ongoing economy expansion is over 10 years old, but has only grown ~2% a year. Hardly the sign of a stock bubble. Bubbles follow 100% growth over 2 years. Market volatility has been increasing over the last year. The Federal Reserve is concerned about the slowing economy, and no longer raising interest rates.

The average is recession show up every 3 years, so expect a 10% - 20% stock recession in next 1-3 years. However the stock market may be slowing, but could still grow another 10% this year. What is an investor to do?

Choose to reduce the percentage of stocks in my 401K by 20%. A 60%/40% or 80%/20% stock to bond ratio could be dangerous to your principle. Lower interest rates benefit bond funds and reduce 401K volatility.

Jared Dillian, Mauldin Economics, (who I subscribe to) has proposed a 35/55/3/3/4 Portfolio which performs well with 80% less risk. He describe it below:

• 35% in equities invested in stocks with growing dividends, across all sectors.
• 55% in fixed income split between Treasuries (including TIPS), corporates, mortgages, municipal bonds, and a handful of international bonds.
• 3% commodities, 3% gold, and 4% REITs.

The blended yield of this portfolio is probably around 3 to 3.5%. 

For us nearer to retirement or uncomfortable with current market conditions, this plan would let you sleep at night. Remember Have No Idea what will happen next. Nor compensated for writing this. Just sharing thoughts or a strategy that may benefit you.