My Best Work

My best work is when I "Ask the right question".

This implies deeply looking at the issue(s), talking with those involved with different viewpoints and departments, looking at the systems, and understanding potential causes (Thinking Slow & Systems Thinking).

May not have the answer, but asking the right question(s) focuses us on changes that have results.

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices..." William James

What is your best work?

Clearing Your Mindset

Reading about Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analyst work.  Why? Because in a world that is always changing you have to be able to adjust your thinking. Look at things from different perspectives. See what has been done before, and think about other ways to create something new or solve a problem.

Coming up with the same solutions is a path to being outdated, stuck and competing only on price. This is the path to irrelevance and obsolescence.

Seeing the World.

How we see the world is shaped by our assumptions and perceptions. This is an issue because we see only what we expect to see. This mindset is formed from our education, training, viewing, reading and experiences.

There is nothing wrong having a mindset. We all have mindsets. But they can limit what you learn, think about, and the answers you come up with. This is why we work in teams and workshops with people of different responsibilities, professions, and backgrounds. To build a bigger diversified pictures.

The other thing to realize is teams often are as limited as we personally are. Groupthink is a truth we must face and overcome.

Problem Solving Errors

Initial analysis, ideas, and solutions are anchors that can prevent us from going further. They are strong and it takes more information to overcome our snap judgments.

This is why you often see teams trying to solver the wrong problem. They don’t realize they have jumped to a conclusion based on their experience. Have often seen managers blame production people for quality issues and just change the worker.

My saving grace is blaming the system, not the people involved. Allows me to see a bigger picture before trying to define a problem. The problem may have be out of tolerance parts, worn out tooling, bad design, machine wear, chips in the fixture, weak clamping force, and insufficient training.

My weakness is being stuck on one solution, the ‘best’ one. Was especially true when I was young. Experienced co-workers would often want ‘plan B’s to follow. I was try this and adjust if it does not preform as expected. Did not explore options as well as needed. My mindset has changed from learning more about mitigation. 

Mind you often simple problems are often resolved with the first solution. Complicated issues having more risks and less predictable results require us to look deeply, create multiple ideas, and mitigate everything.

A tentative hypothesis is the enemy of new hypotheses. How long does it take you to change your mind?

This comes from our mindsets, and we need to get past our limits to the best of our ability. Especially when dealing with ambiguous situations.

How do We Clear Our Mindset?

Being disciplined and have a checklist is a great start. You want to have a method to follow to not skip steps.

Research the Issue

Who is complaining? Why? What are the consequences?  Costs? Who is affected? What will be the effect for the customer? Effect for their consumer? Collect as much information, data, view points and issues as possible to mitigate.

Use an Organized System to Collect Possible Solutions

Do not overlook anyone’s ideas. Often we can ignore people because they don’t have the credentials. One of the best cost savings involved with came from the material handler and floor sweeper. Great ideas come from anywhere and we can build on them to make them better.

Rank and Prioritize Solutions

Get as many solutions together. How much will it cost to enact them? How much time will it take? Which issues do these solutions solve? The best solution is usually a combination of ideas and methods beyond the initial proposal. Don’t forget the quick fix has to be followed by a permanent solution.

Follow up

Failed solutions are often incomplete implementations. Other issues come up. Orders and new tooling have delays. Project manage plans until they are complete. Save solving the same issue next year.

More reading: 

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis - online book on critical thinking, written by Richards J. Heuer of the CIA

Focus on Being Good for Solutions

Been reading “The Myths of Innovation” by Scott Berkun (Have been a fan of Scott’s writing for several years www.scottberkun.com ), and he dispels the myth that there is one great epiphany moment that creates new products. Instead he shows through history all great ideas are preceded, followed or more likely surrounded with hard work.

Also every improvement overcomes people doubting it will work.

In addition even the person with the idea did not know all the ways any new invention could be used. Wilbur and Orville Wright did not imagine airmail, worldwide airlines, cargo services and millions of travelers daily. They were just the first to really control powered flight. A lot of work by many people has happened since then to create the world travel we take for granted.

Scott’s suggestion for creating innovations – focus on the simple language of problem, prototype, experiment, design and solution. The solution should benefit someone else and “do good”.

The other point is get started doing something, work in small teams, provide needed leadership, and be happy about interesting mistakes to learn from them. Interesting mistakes often become the innovations people think of like microwave ovens. You have to be aware and see why they did not fit your expectations.

So do something good, learn from it, and try to benefit people. Focus on being good, and who knows where that will take us in the future.

Toyota’s Runaway Case Gets Stranger

Poor Toyota. All they wanted to be was the number one automobile manufacturer in the world. They were so close. Good cars, great reputation, worldwide distribution, owners are fans, and the best marketing of any auto manufacturer. The successful launches of the Lexus and Scion lines changed the luxury and first car markets. Nobody was close to Toyota’s momentum.

Now their name is smeared with runaway cars, stuck gas petals and floor mats. Have talked about companies not believing complaints by customers, and over confidence in their product. Complaints are second chances given to you by customers to save the sale. You can look at the Big 3 in the USA ignoring reports by the car rental companies that the Japanese cars were performing better with less maintenance, and they ignored statistics proving them. It was hubris by domestic manufacturers.

Toyota is in a difficult situation. Too many lawsuits by too many opportunistic attorneys looking to make money, and government prosecutors looking to improve their political name by suing Toyota. If you read the previous article I sympathize with Toyota finding intermittent problems with multiple causes. They are difficult to see and harder to analyze than production problems, and a nightmare to resolve.

The San Diego case is strange, very strange. A 61 year old car runs away with him. 94 miles per hour. Police chase him and help slow him down. Makes the national news. Next day we find out he driving a car NOT recalled. It has a brake override system that if he was holding down the brake should have turned off the accelerator. Worse, the “victim” is $700,000 in debt and was about to lose the car along with the other three repossessed. He could be motivated to fake the runaway to make money.

First of all, am not going to assume this was faked. Am going to analyze the situation and ways to investigate this. I am not convinced by investigators who can not make the car do it again. How can you know how to trigger it unless you know all the possible causes and combine them all? Right now that has not been settled.

Would love to see the video if I were investigating. Per Toyota if he is stepping on the brake the acceleration should stop. The police cruiser video should show solid brake lights if he is pushing like he claimed. Were there any highway cameras or news copter pictures of the incident? Did they as for witnesses?

If he was faking, he had to overcome the brake override system that should have turned off the accelerator. There would be evidence of that unless he was a top flight programmer. Most people do not know how to reprogram a car.

First impressions by the police are good evidence. Did they smell the brakes catching up to him? Yes. Did the brake lights stay on the whole time? Maybe not, he was reportedly pumping the brakes until the police had him apply the parking brake and stay on the brakes. That may have finally activated the brake override system. How did the victim act when they stopped? The brakes should have been too hot to touch. The wheels hot too conducting heat away (unless they were aluminum or magnesium. They might conduct heat away too fast, but the hub would be hot.

Physical evidence needs to be checked. They would have had to fade. That may glaze the face of the pads or show other damage on the pads and discs. Experts can tell. The reports are the brakes were worn out.

If the evidence is he let go of the brakes to accelerate, would suspect fraud. If not, Toyota would be well served to assume this is a possible real problem and keep looking for combinations of problems. How likely is a 61 year old to panic when his car acts irrationally. Know a lot of teens through fifty year olds who would panic. My gut feel is this is a real runaway.

Okay, what possible problems are there? Physical, Hardware, Firmware or Software. Physical has been exhausted with petal recall and changing the floor mats. Hardware is what it is. Firmware and Software are really the biggest culprits left. My partner believes it is software. Too much probability with the diversity of runaway cars over so many models and years. Also he is a systems expert unlike any inside the auto industry with too many years of experience to fall for the first good probable answer and would dig deeper.

Toyota would be wise to hire an expert like him, but suspect it would not happen. Mainly for litigation reasons. Toyota is better off with non English speaking help who would be tough to be interviewed on a witness stand. (Especially if the company help was hard to find?). Disclosure rules in the US would eventually flesh this out, but still makes the attorneys’ jobs harder with all the difficulty of translating exactly technical jargon to English. Can’t blame Toyota here, is any country more litigious than the US?

Don’t think Toyota’s problems are over. Cruise control runaways are happening too. Would expect more recalls and finding more causes. Some people are saying a brake override software solution and reprogramming the on/off button to shut off under repeated pushing is all that is needed. I have doubts that covers everything unfortunately. Technology is too complicated and simple solutions often miss part of the problem like the sticking petal and floor mats.

Toyota will recover like Ford did from the Pinto fiasco, and will focus like Ford on making great cars again. May take a few years, but Toyota’s great reputation will return.

Till then I would know how to shift my Toyota into neutral, or hold the start button down for 3 seconds. Yes I would still buy a Toyota before this is resolved, because the odds of it happening are under 0.1% and going down with every improvement.

Drive safe,
Steve

Huge Fan of Sperry Software Outlook Contact Sort Add-in

Just found and installed a great tool. Have 1,900 contacts and the name order got mixed using other software. Most were Last, First and I wanted First, Last order. Been hellish fixing one at a time. Found this free program, and tried it. Three minutes and 1,128 contacts are fixed. So much easier to find people.

http://www.sperrysoftware.com/outlook/contacts-sort-order.asp

Seriously recommend you check out all there add-ins. Prices look reasonable too.
Steve

The 10 Questions You Should Never Stop Asking

Turnaround Tactics

 Really good article for anyone managing, developing strategy or entrepreneurs.
Steve

http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/20/ten-key-questions-entrepreneurs-management-kramer.html?partner=popstories

Political Uncertainty Puts Freeze on Small Businesses

Very Good Wall Street Journal Article about why small businesses are not hiring or may be laying off. Think this is a common reason businesses are not taking advantage of the economy to expand market share. The uncertainty of the new health care costs, increasing taxes in 2010 when the Bush tax cuts expire, and political new taxes like Cap and Trade are causing businesses to hold on to cash. The recovery may be slow in the current situation until some direction is clearly coming from Washington.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125659324579108943.html
The leaders who can see a way to expand their businesses will be rewarded when the recession ends. How can you affordability grow your business market share now? Your customers will thank you.
Steve Amos

A peek into the future

Good article about the near future of technology.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover6-2009sep06,0,6494829.story
Copy and paste or just search "A peek into the future"

I love predictions. It is amazing how wrong we get them. Yet is it shows how we are trying to solve problems all the time.

Wireless electricity seems like a side effect failure, but there are great places to use it. Especially how difficult it is to run some wires. RUF seems too costly. There is a better chance for cars to use other software technologies which do not require the infrastructure.

N + 3 Aviation and Nanotechnology do seem like the future. There is a tremendous need for both of these technologies.

Just my guess about these technologies. What is yours?
Steve Amos

How to Solve Any Problem

How to Solve Any Problem
by Steve Amos © Copyright 2007

If you do not have any problems, you can skip this article. Notice everyone is still reading... :)

Life is full of problems. We encounter them daily in business and in our personal lives. How we handle problems often dictates how others perceive us, our position, and how much we earn.

Here are the basics to successfully solve any problem:

1. Really want to resolve it. Most people are “Wouldn’t it be nice if this went away.” You have to be really ready to change. There are going to be obstacles and failures. It is going to take time and effort. It will upset some people to solve your problem. It can upset you to solve your problem.

To fix anything, someone has to change what they or you are doing. There is a natural resistance to change that does not go away easy. We have all said “That’s the way we always do it” at some point in our life.

2. Why is it a Problem? Who does it bother? Your customer, your coworker, your boss, your significant other, or is it you who are bothered? Why are they bothered? Once you have identified the problem, you can do something about it.

3. What are the causes? What causes affect your problem? Why do the sources do that? Somewhere there is a reason the task was started. The secret is to track back down to the root causes. Then break down what variables can affect your problem. Then you can try changing the variables to see if you can find a solution. This is a basic description of the “Black Box” analysis technique used daily by Engineers.

4. What Changed? The shortcut used to find the source of the problem. If something worked before, and now doesn’t work, this question will often identify the cause. However if something worked poorly, you will only go back to working poorly.

5. Ask everyone involved for their input. Whoever is closest to the problem has the best insights to what is going wrong. They can help ferret out the roots of the problem. Often the answer comes from the person least likely to know the solution. Be open-minded.

Describing a problem to someone helps define it. It's a simple, fast and effective way to analyze problems. Two heads are usually better than one.

6. Stay with it. The first attempt at anything is rarely successful. Try and try again is the only way to solve anything. Solving a problem is often done with stubbornness as much as from talent. Refuse to quit. Be bullheaded. Solutions don’t require a degree. The experience will make you a more talented problem solver.

Thomas Edison had over 900 failures before he succeeded in creating the light bulb. Problem solvers don’t give up.

7. Look for others who have a similar problem. Industry, professional, and self-help groups are often great sources of ideas how to attack a problem. American industry lost a great lead on the rest of the world by not taking others' ideas. Call it the “Not Invented Here” syndrome. Look at other industries for ideas.

8. Try different problem solving techniques. History is full of companies (and people) that found a solution for customers, blossomed, and then died as changes left them behind. Don’t be a One Trick Pony. Learn how other problem solvers succeed and try it yourself.

9. Analyze the consequences. What effects will different solutions have? Solutions need to be evaluated before they are implemented. For instance, starting a war may leave your country’s economy and military ruined. Diplomacy may be a better solution to try first.

10. Test your solution. What consequences will your solution have? Try to model the smallest piece of your problem, and see if it works. Listen carefully to any feedback. Do not take the griping personally that comes with the feedback. Just try to ferret out the facts.
If your solution fails to work, refer to #6. Experience always has value.

11. Sell your solution. Now you think there is a solution. You must start to overcome the resistance to change. Most of the resistance comes when people are told to do something without a reason. If you can explain the reason clearly, your solution is more likely to succeed. Do find the solutions are rarely accepted the first time they are explained. Generally people need three or four exposures to a new idea before they accept it.

12. Give credit to those who helped you. People will be more likely to help you in the future if you have established a track record of not hogging the glory. You will get your share of the credit.

We can see persistence and patience are necessary to solve any problem. Practice and experience will make it easier as you go along. So please don’t give up. Then find your next problem to be solved.

© Copyright Steve Amos 2007