Don’t Expect Perfection

Too many ruin their holidays and weeks by expecting perfection. 

Did you get everything you wanted? Of course not.
Were your family and friends annoying? Of course, they are human. Love them anyway.
Were your kids perfect? If so, bottle it and sell for millions.
Were you annoying? Forgive yourself and move on.
Your health or fitness perfect? Please getting over Covid here and stuck with age.
Was work perfect? Please get up off the floor and laugh up here with us.

"Life is what happens to us when we are making other plans" - Thomas la Mance

Be human. Laugh, love, learn and carry on.

What Will Change Your Mind?

Political Anti Vax hard core in denial need not read this. Focused on reasonable people who think for themselves. People who have based their identity on political talking points aren’t listening or thinking facts and results. 

Covid is not going away. The other coronavirus known as the common cold has been with us over 100 years and finds ways to mutate around human defenses. Same with flus which breakout worldwide every year. Humans are too good of hosts not to spread diseases.

 

If you haven’t had Covid or a vaccine, you will catch it. If you catch Covid, you will spread it to loved ones.

 

Coronaviruses are transmitted by breathing them in. The viral load primarily attacks your nose and lungs. All it takes is walking by someone contagious, who may not feel it yet. My car is stuck in the garage over a week so far because everyone in the garage and the owner’s wife caught Covid the week before. One exposure spread to nine coworkers and their families. The latest variants affect all ages. My grandnieces and grandnephew ages 5 to 14 have had it.

 

We resist changing for fear. Look at all the unknowns. None of us lived in a pandemic before. No one wants to make a mistake.

 

The 5^th wave in WA state where the breakout started, and 4^th wave in LA where now working are proving how well vaccines work. ~99% of hospitalizations and deaths are the unvaccinated. Vaccinated and people who had Covid before can still be reinfected, but viral loads are less and they recover much faster. Over 1 billion people have safely been vaccinated. Another 1 billion have their first shots.

 

~10% of unvaccinated people who have caught Covid are hospitalized. ~1% die either from Covid or combined with existing conditions. Side effects of catching Covid may include reduced oxygen to body and brain, loss of physical abilities, not being to exercise, brain fog, impotence and incontinence. Some Long Termers may have these conditions permanently.  

 

Quarantining, masks and contact tracing are somewhat effective in limiting breakouts in countries that applied them. However they have not stopped the disease from returning. The only working solution is vaccines.

 

There are side effects to vaccines. Most of us feel our immune systems working similar to being sick. You likely will have a fever and be tired 12-36 hours afterwards. A rare number have permanent burning or hot metal smells/tastes afterwards. However you can’t catch Covid from a vaccine. The long term effects of vaccines have been studied and will finish approval cycle.

 

We need to spread vaccines worldwide. Is the only way to contain this disease. Too many people are dying until we can lower costs and ramp up production and distribution. Only 14.5% of the world’s population is fully vaccinated and another 13.7% have received one dose. Three quarters of the world’s population will likely catch Covid and breed new variants. Recommend British, Indian, Soviet and US vaccines. Some Chinese vaccines have been much less effective or had manufacturing quality problems. Would take what vaccine is available now, and look into better ones later.

 

"Superior leaders are willing to admit a mistake and cut their losses. Be willing to admit that you've changed your mind. Don't persist when the original decision turns out to be a poor one."  - Brian Tracy

Vaccines are Seat Belts and Airbags of Medicine

 Accidents happen every day. Small dings, fender benders, rear enders, and the major accidents with hospital trips or death. Seat belts and air bags are ready to save your body and life, and reduced travel deaths extensively since being mandated in 1968. 

 

Vaccines get your body ready for an attack by known diseases. Exposing your immune system to a deactivated / weakened bacteria or viruses, your body trains to fight these diseases. You create antibodies to fight the disease in the future.

 

Vaccines are very effective. Smallpox has been eliminated by vaccines. Old enough to remember classmates who had polio and measles permanently affecting them. My father almost died at 13 from whooping cough. CDC lists 14 diseases people forget about because success of vaccines. You are likely alive today because you were vaccinated as a child.

 

Airbags were invented because people were resistant to wearing seat belts, being crippled or dying. Before being required by law in most states, compliance was about 14% in 1983. Now see ~90% compliance. Airbags work more effectively with seat belt usage. Millions of people are alive and not crippled because of seat belts and air bags.

 

SARS Covid 19 causes blood clots, and attacking organs including brain, circulatory, heart, lungs, digestive and reproductive systems. Highly contagious, you can catch from anyone. Kills ~1-2% of infected people. ~10% have long term affects to their organs lasting for months or permanently. Not just a serious flu like originally thought. 3,291,489 deaths to date are likely under reported due to lack of testing. You are more likely to catch Covid than be in a car accident.

 

Was in ‘wait and see’ category to see if there are any problems with new vaccines. January switched to encouraging everyone to get vaccinated because of the data proves safe and effective. What is the alternative? More disabilities and deaths.

 

Encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Copy or share. We want to save lives.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html

 

 

International Business Got More Challenging

 Unfortunately politics are led by people. And people have their faults. investment decisions are more challenging by the situation. We seem to be in an era of ‘Cult of Personality’ leaders for many countries. President Trump is one of these leaders. He is still popular. If he had taken care of pandemic and listened to experts he likely would have won reelection. 

 

My comments about the leaders reflect no bias against people from anywhere. Had and have wonderful coworkers and friends from all continents including almost all the ‘Axis of Evil’ countries. My wife family is of Chinese descent in Indonesia, and my family immigrated from all over Europe. Think I could start WW1 by myself. Working in technical fields always impressed with how intelligent and talents everyone is. Most people are wonderful. 

 

Leaders do affect what happens and may happen in the future, so we have to evaluate risks. This is a short discussion of what could happen. The subject is complicated and points are simplified for length.

 

Myanmar

After 10 years of partial democracy, the military known as Tatmadaw declared a national emergency after ~83% voted for the party they didn’t like. Television, phone service, newspapers, internet and international flights have been shut down.

The protests were large and immediate.  Violence began with military shooting protestors. Now there is a general strike. The strong arm tactics are not working and military may not realize the mess they created. Not sure how long this will last, but investments are pulling out until resolved.

 

Russia

President Putin has been extending his ability to be elected for life. Opponents are jailed and Alexander Navalny was poisoned. Crimea was seized 6 years ago and Russia has recently stockpiled military troops and equipment along the eastern Ukraine border. Ukraine east of Dnieper river was part of the Soviet Union for many years. Most residents speak Russian. President Putin believes taking over this territory will solidify his popularity despite international consequences. Russia has recently been partnering with China for aerospace, military and space. 

 

China

China’s economic growth is unparalleled over the last 30 years. They have grown to one to the world’s largest economy by building cities and support systems for products, technologies and whatever customers needs. They became the factory to the world. The Belt and Roads initiative are aimed at growing future trade. 

China negotiated trade advantages with the WTO. Business partners had to give up intellectual property to trade in China. China is working on making their currency a major trading standard. The Great Firewall of China keeps out the internet. It does not prevent the military from hacking secrets. Russia has been holding back its technologies because the agreements are not in place.

China’s goal is to be a regional superpower equivalent to Europe and the US. The takeover of Hong Kong was easy and fast. They are fighting neighbors by claiming the Chinese Sea and building island air and military bases, ignoring the UN 2016 ruling. They have militia marine vessels to take over areas by number alone. They have been challenging Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, and South Korea.

President Xi has been consolidating power and eliminating opponents. In his next 5 year plan he would like to ‘reunify’ Taiwan into China. Currently there is a campaign of intimidation, pressure and interference in politics against Taiwan. Despite the threat of invasion, this is the least likely approach China would take. Step by step political accommodation and a feeling of inevitability is the desired path.

 

Taiwan

Taiwan is the world’s 21^st largest economy, has advanced technologies and is main designer and supplier of the world’s computer chips. China is their largest trading partner. Taiwan businesses have made significant investments in Chinese factories. 

Independence needs to be supported by other trading partners.

 

European Union

EU is larger than the US economy. Despite the name is less unified than thought. Every country has personal interests first before EU priorities. Brexit is evidence of the disunity. The pandemic has hurt economies and arguments about vaccine allotments are an issue. Europe’s growth is slow or negative where many thought would be the first to recover.

 

India

President Modi has claimed a lot of credit for India’s successes of which there are many. However the pandemic is damaging his power. They had contained it well and are producing vaccines in country, but distribution is the issue.

India has always done things their own way. The desire to modernize the military with China next door is making changes. India has tremendous capabilities in computers, engineering, software and space. Modernization continues unevenly.

 

Turkey

President Erdogan would like to be a regional power and is involved throughout the Mediterranean including Greece, Libya, and other conflicts. Being part of NATO, there are concerns about weapon systems from Russia. They are going their own way. 

 

Iran

The development of nuclear weapons, rockets and drones continues along with supporting militias in other countries. Their small navy ships have been around several bombings and challenging warships in the strait of Hormuz. Iran is a regional power who would like to stay in control. 

However the leadership is aging and population is suffering under economic blockades. There are rumors of a nuclear agreement circulating to open up their economy.

 

North Korea 

Kim Jung Un has stayed in power with constant threat of war, people who admire and love him, and being unpredictable enough no one is sure if he would use nuclear weapons. It is a porcupine defense, too much trouble to take over his country.

 

Asia

Asian economies are growing 7.3%. Mask wearing, tracking infections and isolation of the sick contained the pandemic mostly. These countries are growing well.

 

Japan

World’s 3^rd largest economy is growing and low unemployment. Effective pandemic response has been helpful.

 

Indonesia

The world’s 4^th largest by population and 10^th largest economy. Diverse population groups and 1,700 islands. Indonesia has been growing since becoming a democracy. There are still issues including the pandemic, but an overlooked opportunity for most of the world’s businesses.

 

Mexico 

Economy is growing healthy 3.8% in 2021. Recent updates to NAFTA and increasing education of population is helping growth. The issue is drugs gangs and violence. If under control, growth would be stronger. Neighbor to the north is issue with demand for illegal drugs.

 

South America 

Individual countries are making the news for pandemic denial (Brazil), or socialistic government corruption and failure (Venezuela). Did you know at one time Argentina was the world’s 6^th largest economy?

Many other countries including Argentina have healthily growth in their economies. This is an area more investment should be made.

 

Africa

Political wars, drought and locust have been in the news. But this is misleading as education and economies are growing. 

China has been investing in African countries and hoping to grow another breadbasket to feed their population. Major cities are as modern as the rest of the world. Another area investments need to be made. European companies are already interested.

 

Summary

The combination of political risk, egocentric leaders, an ongoing pandemic, plus rising shipping costs have made moving supply chains, reshoring or near shoring more popular recently. Look for resiliency as well as costs when investing in new production lines. Evaluate where your current suppliers could have issues during the next few years. China is shaking up the world again. Expect other countries will benefit.

Relocating is Hard Work

 Changing jobs while maintaining your home life is difficult. Your old routines are gone. You have to learn new products, services, software and possibly technologies. Add in new responsibilities, new coworkers, schedule and a different commute. The way to get things done and who does them is different.

 

You can see why onboarding new employees is important for success. Companies with poor onboarding lose good people to other opportunities.

 

Fortunately with just changing jobs, your social life, friends and family remain. Your family does not need new housing, schools, and jobs. Relocating across states is much more difficult with added disruptions. You may be the only one affected if you are lucky.

 

Relocating nationally or internationally raises the levels of disruptions. Family, friends, neighbors, associates, small businesses you patronize, your kid’s schools, your church, places you volunteer or donate blood are a little affected. You now need new place to live, registration, insurance, doctor, dentist, hair cutter, mechanic, gym, food stores, and places to go on weekends. Language and pronunciation are different. Moving to SoCal exposed my lack of Spanish, and NOLA my lack of French. Food is different. Cafe de Lait and Community Coffee in NOLA replaces Starbucks. Few chain grocery stores, and cannot find coffee ice cream. Who knew? Is it any wonder people return home if not taken care of? Welcoming and onboarding people is important for team building.

 

Arrived in New Orleans same way arrived in Everett. Long multiple day drive with packed trunk and back seat. Mostly clothes, towels, dishes, silverware, pots and pans, small appliances, small toolbox, table with legs unscrewed, and couple folding chairs. Buy a bed, mattress, office chair, monitor, food and minimum items necessary to get through for months until household can be moved. You don’t realize how much you enjoy home.

 

Been here ~2.5 months, been to the office handful of times (Covid), and beginning to find places without phone map. Streets are beginning to make sense although there have been wrong turns and U-turns. Not sure can find landmarks at night yet. Been to French Quarter twice, and found safe places to run. Eventually have to find restaurants and new volleyball teams. Buying a house will follow.

 

My blessings have been my coworkers and boss who have been wonderfully helpful. One offered to pick up anything I need during a sick day, even though lives 25 miles out of way. Prior boss recommended his doctor and dentist. Other coworkers share work processes, software, restaurants, shopping and took me to lunch to get settled. Helps other new hires here sharing knowledge.

 

Have done this several times. Around one and half years the new place will feel like home. You have friends, a social life developing, and a routine to develop. Am looking forward to the day.

Coronavirus Update

 Back in March was living 13 miles from 1^st breakout in Kirkland WA, and wrote about early Covid-19 info and research last May “Making Sense from Noise”. Unfortunately became political which is not the way to solve contagious diseases. Updating known facts below:

• Covid-19 is not a flu. Attacks nasal passages, lungs, blood circulation, organs, brain and more. 
• New and novel, no one has resistance. Everyone can catch Covid-19. Friends from teenagers to 84 (being careful) still caught it. Paraphrasing Matthew, rain falls on the just and the unjust. 
• Highly contagious causing local breakouts.  If you haven’t caught it, you are just lucky. Everyone in your circle has their circle and on. All it takes is one infection to spread through groups. 
• Transmission mostly aerosols in air. Less likely to get from touching surfaces.
• New variations are being discovered. These mutations are normal since another corona virus, the common cold has been around for centuries overcoming immunity.
• More contagious variations have been found in Brittan, South Africa, South America, and California. By summer these will be dominant strains. Local breakouts hit R3 which is very dangerous. R3 = each infected person infects 3 others.
• Wide ranges how people are affected by Covid-19. Possibly 2 of 3 don’t realize they have it. Others wind up hospitalized or on ventilators. Of known cases, the death rate has been ~3%.
• Recovered does not mean healthy. ~10% of serious cases have extend symptoms including reduced breathing ability, weakened physical shape, brain fog, and painful symptoms.
• 6 feet and 10 minutes are not magical protections. You can get infected further and faster.

 

Staying healthy

• Mask up, they work. Flu rates have fallen worldwide this year. Must cover your nose! 3 layers of cloth or disposables help reduce infections. KN-95 and fitted N-95 are gold standards.
• Try to keep your hands off your face. (My weakness) Can transfer aerosols to yourself.
• Frequent hand washing, especially before eating.
• Treatments are improving, and early intervention is helpful.
• Vaccines are effective, and people who said they weren’t going to take them are signing up.
• Even if you had Covid-19 you need a vaccine to resist other variations.
• Social interactions, phone and video calls help mental health. 
• Get treatment if you are suffering from depression or other symptoms. Earlier the better.
• Avoid eating indoors, avoid large groups, avoid group singing, and limit being unmasked even if vaccinated. Anyone can be a carrier.

 

Rates have been falling lately. New cures are coming for the infected. The rollout of vaccines has been slower than desired. Seeing improvements, up to ~100,000 vaccinations per week here in Louisiana. 

 

The biggest issue is corona fatigue. Exercise, meditate, pray, express yourself, avoid inundating yourself, and stay social despite physically distances. “This too shall pass” has gotten me through other crises.

 

Stats from Worldometers.info very informative worldwide.