Our Bright Future

In the middle of a Pandemic remind yourself ‘This Too Shall Pass’.  Normal life is a constant state of change we don’t observe day to day. We often don’t realize how much has changed until we look back at the last decade. We humans tend to look at only recent events when predicting our future.

Observing how quickly the changes medical and research professionals have made. Priorities switched and testing of existing and new medicines are moving ahead at all speed. Antibodies from survivors are being used to develop treatments. Even more amazing is regulators creating new regulation to approve new treatments and potential vaccines faster and safely.

Look at how quickly businesses and education switched to remote learning. Zoom, Skype and competitors usage have boomed. The internet has handled increased traffic well due to past investments. Managers who never thought of remote work are now impressed how well people have been able to team.

Growth in technologies, space, and defense are advancing faster than ever. SpaceX launching astronauts to the International Space Station today, and the eventually the Moon. Long term people will take less risks working by partnering with robotics.

The future will be here faster, improve life and creating more wealth than expected.

“What we need are more people who specialize in the impossible.” - Theodore Roethke

There is no way to understate how difficult life is for the unemployed and those who earnings have been cut. Roughly one of four people have been laid off or furloughed as business stopped for SARS Covid-19. Parents are trying to work and school kids at home. Mental illness often struggles in isolation. Change brings pain with growth.

Change is not stress free. Developing technologies and learning to use them productively will be difficult at times. Man as always grown and flourished through time.

What ways will your life be better?

“We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who tell us that society has reached a turning point—that we have seen our best days. But so said all who came before us, and with just as much apparent reason… On what principle is it that, when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?’’ - T. B. Macaulay, writing in 1830 in reply to the pessimists of his day

Giving Thanks on Memorial Day

Family members serving in the military influenced us. May not be your parents, may be other generations like grand parents or great uncles. Their attitudes influence family members and get passed down to children for generations to come.

Service men and women are taught to deal with adversity. No plan survives first encounters with the enemy. We learn from what did not go well and failures. New plans, processes or strategies evolve, and then are tried quickly. Successes and reasoning are taught next generations. Resilience along with laughter to survive troubles.

Don’t underestimate the sacrifices and learning at home. Mothers and grandparents often worked and raised successful children during trying years. Their lessons permeate our culture. My great uncles and uncles who served taught my dad who shared their life lessons with us.

Their lessons are why we will survive the pandemic, social distancing, job losses, grief and suffering. Generations before us sacrificed to thrive. We will sacrifice.

This year first responders and medical professionals share the stage with our military. We have lost many good people and colleagues in our pandemic despite best efforts. Keep all people who serve in your prayers.

Workers Can’t Afford to Thrive

Before the SARS Covid-19 Scourge there were lot of lousy jobs out there. Mostly service and retail jobs. Now lots of delivery jobs out there. These jobs do not pay enough for the middle class to thrive even with a $15/hour minimum wage. Both parents have to work or people have multiple jobs to pay bills.

Brookings Institute research “found that 53 million Americans between the ages of 18 to 64—accounting for 44% of all workers—qualify as “low-wage.” Their median hourly wages are $10.22, and median annual earnings are about $18,000.” 26% of low-wage workers (14 million people) are the only earners in their families, getting by on median annual earnings of about $20,000.

Lots of our neighbors, family and friends are laid off, furloughed or out of work. The current U6 unemployment rate including discouraged and part time workers looking for full time in April 2020 is 22.80%. 36.5 million workers have filed for unemployment. More people have lost one of several jobs and well under the poverty line.

The Manhattan Institute created a Cost of Thriving Index for the Middle Class. Rather than complicated inflation adjustments, it measured the cost of renting 40th percentile 3 bedroom home, car ownership, annual family medical insurance, and one semester of public college. These expenses are divided by median middle class weekly salaries.  This determines how many weeks of work to cover expenses.

Results: In 1985, the average male worked 30 weeks to cover expenses. In 2018 salaries declined compared to expenses requiring 53 weeks. Women had it worse. In 1985 took 45 weeks to cover expenses. In 2018 required 66 weeks of work. Neither situation works for a single parent.

Is there any wonder people do not feel better off? Neither political party has been successful improving the life of workers. Both parties have failed the electorate.

Add in a significantly reduced global economy post Covid-19, we are looking at people needing help in large numbers. The federal, state and local governments are seeing drastically reduced tax revenues which will add to the issue.

Some Republicans in DC are suggesting to reduce SNAP aka “food stamps” benefits in a pandemic. Are they GIVING the election to Joe Biden? Registered Republican here NOT voting for anyone supporting this horrible idea of starving vulnerable people.

Do not have a magic wand to make this go away. We are going to have to make tough choices and look for changes to help everyone thrive.

References below:
Why the ‘great’ jobs market was always an illusion
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-great-jobs-market-was-always-an-illusion-2020-05-14?mod=home-page

Why the average male can no longer cover basic expenses for his family
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/average-male-earnings-basic-expenses

The Cost-of-Thriving Index: Reevaluating the Prosperity of the American Family
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/reevaluating-prosperity-of-american-family
report
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/the-cost-of-thriving-index-OC.pdf

Making Sense From Noise

SARS Covid-19 has been the subject of much news, Twitter posts, Facebook posts, official announcements, misinformation, speculation, foreign government and political posturing. This led to various groups popping up claiming only they have the ‘true’ information, often followed by ads for cures with doubtful benefits. This is not a ‘Doomsday’ prediction! Optimistic about 3-5 years out.

This pandemic has been a science nightmare and evidence of caring people trying any treatment they can think of to save lives. Quarantines, Stay Home orders, physical distancing, and drugs developed for other diseases. So many first responders, doctors, nurses, aides, and other professionals have been running to help solve this issue. However this makes cures harder to scientifically verify.

Not helpful were China hiding initial information, WHO mismanaging information and research, western governments unprepared and underestimating risk, and everyone trying to blame someone else to cover their missteps. Typical human behaviors.

Facts have been able to discern:

1.     Highly Contagious Virus. First appeared like a Flu but more contagious. No one has immunity since new novel coronavirus.

2.     People are spreading Cvid-19 with no symptoms or before symptoms are obvious. Pattern about week before symptoms, if serious may be hospitalized for week to a month. Then patients need rehabilitation to return home.

3.     Apparently mutated in Italy becoming more dangerous.

4.     More serious for people with compromised immune systems and older patients. However seeing people of all ages infected and dying. Latest study over 75 patients under 15 with unusual conditions.

5.     Appears to be natural source like SARS, MERS and many other diseases. One person from a lab would not cause a widespread breakout compared to thousands out in nature interacting with animals everyday.

6.     If you had it, because of future mutations you may not be immune. Similar to the common cold some us catch every year or so.

7.     Vaccines may take a year, several years, or never be successful. Treatments are likely to rapidly improve results due to experimentation.

Likely will happen:

1.     Curing Covid-19 will take longer than predicted.

2.     Tremendous medical progress results in new treatments and preventions.

3.     Social Distancing will tend to weaken because we get overconfident, or miss family and friends too much. Children in school likely spread disease.

4.     Breakouts will be local and fast spreading all over the world.

5.     Negative effects on global economy will last longer than most people think. Also expect higher taxes to pay for debt over next decade.

6.     There will be some permanent changes in consumer and business behaviors. Remote work will be much more widespread. 

7.     Expect business travel and vacation travel to return over a few years. Both have been important to growing economies.

8.     Unemployment will partially recover quickly as service businesses reopen. However lots of jobs will permanently be gone. Will take several years for creating new jobs to replace missing jobs.

9.     Distrust of other countries will rise. Competition between China, Europe, United States and other countries will trim global trade.

Based on facts and observations, expect we are in for one or two hard years. Beyond that we are going to see great technical progress, new medical discoveries, and global economies growing worldwide over the rest of the decade.

Short term:

1.     Stay healthy by following basics until risks are reduced.

2.     Stay in touch with family and friends. Joy and laughter improve health.

3.     Reduce unnecessary spending for a year or two until your career is secure.

4.     If you are still working, increase your emergency funds and consider delaying retirement. If not working find taxi jobs and educate yourself.

5.     If your job is secure, around fall and winter there will be wonderful deals for homes and autos.

We have adapted and thrived through worse disruptions throughout history. Don’t underestimate resourcefulness, learning and growth. Long term we will benefit from these disruptions. Maintain your faith, and know God is in charge.

Shape of Economic Recovery on Your Finances

After Covid-19 is under control, the economy will start growing again. Businesses will figure out how to grow, and new businesses will open. How fast this happens affects your careers, pensions, investments and retirement. 

Economists describe V, U, J and W recoveries. Investors look for forward earnings to price investments like bonds, stocks, mergers, businesses and real estate.

‘V’ recovery assumes after a sharp drop, the market will quickly return to normal. This was the early market opinion, and you can see the quick rally that occurred.

‘U’ recovery assumes a longer period down, followed by fast growth. This assumption lowers the value of investments because of discounted future earning valuations.

‘J’ recovery (or Nike Swoosh) assumes after the drop, the recovery will be slow steady growth. The post 2008 recovery is an example where economic growth was only ~2% for several years. 

‘W’ recovery is the scariest when the market rallies on hope after a steep drop, then bad news causes more steep market drops. The Great Depression is an example. Eventually economies return to growing, but this assumes bear market rallies follow by more bear market drops.

No one knows exactly how the economy will behave, and reading the news is confusing and misleading. Best can do is give opinions based on observations and research. As always “your mileage may vary”. Not an expert.

After the depth of this drop on the global economy, we are starting from a Much Smaller Global Economy. Most small and medium sized businesses are able to handle short periods of lower earnings, but not long earning breaks earning nothing. A good number of businesses will not reopen. Not good for business spending.

1 of 6 workers are now unemployed. They are not buying anything but necessary goods and services. When these businesses return they won’t need all their previous employees with less sales. Eventually most will find jobs, but not necessarily at the same salary. Drops of 10-30% are possible after extended periods of unemployment. Does not help consumer spending.

Business recovery will be different by industry. Hair stylists will lose income this year because we only need one haircut to recover. Travel like hotels, cruise ships and airlines are going to be low and slow for 2-5 years. Small luxuries like Starbucks, meals ordered in or eating restaurants will recover much faster. Delivery services will have continued growth. Oil and energy will start growing from a lower user base. Durable goods will be smaller for a longer period.

Real Estate is going to vary by market: Strong demand for low income housing and apartments. Condos and housing will have lower prices with less qualified buyers. Commercial real estate will have more retail vacancies and lower office space demand with the growth of work at home.

What to Do Now? Decided at my age to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% to 30% in my 401K and hold more money market (cash). Also reduced International Bonds 10% moving to Domestic Bonds to lower my risk. Did not move completely out of the market, but made slight adjustments until think stocks are a good investment again. Investing is easier when you have a long term strategy.

Pensions May be Cut due to low returns. Look at your spending and see what can be reduced or deferred until you know how this will affect you. Do you have assets you can sell you don’t need? 

If your job is secure, the next year may be a good time to purchase a car or home. Major purchases are the most important decisions for your wealth.

I hope not to be laid off, but may have to change industries again. Time to update my LinkedIn profile and create a resume in case. Preparation will help if the time comes.