Huge Fan of Sperry Software Outlook Contact Sort Add-in

Just found and installed a great tool. Have 1,900 contacts and the name order got mixed using other software. Most were Last, First and I wanted First, Last order. Been hellish fixing one at a time. Found this free program, and tried it. Three minutes and 1,128 contacts are fixed. So much easier to find people.

http://www.sperrysoftware.com/outlook/contacts-sort-order.asp

Seriously recommend you check out all there add-ins. Prices look reasonable too.
Steve

Eliminating Sales Quotas May Stimulate Profits

The Stanford Graduate School of Business recently reported on a study conducted about the effectiveness of using sales quotas to motivate and reward salespeople. Based on an experiment at one Fortune 500 company, the researchers concluded that removing the sales quotas resulted in a 9% increase in overall revenues. 
http://gsb.stanford.edu/news/research/Nair_sales.html

Jim McIngvale is the founder of Gallery Furniture store in Houston, Texas. Many years ago, he called on W. Edwards Deming to help him improve his business. McIngvale often tells the story about Deming telling him to change his salespeople from commission-based pay to salary. After failing to convince Deming that it wouldn't work in the retail industry, he gave in and changed his pay practices and put his salespeople on salary. In The New Economics, Deming wrote about the results of the change. " . . . steady increase in sales. Older salesmen now help beginners. Salesmen no longer try to steal business from other salesmen. they now help each other . . . sales go up month by month. Moreover, profit per square foot of floor space advances even faster." McIngvale agrees.

Like so many elements in business, it goes back to effective leadership and hiring practices.

My question is What motivations are you offering your people by your rewards? Too many companies do not reward initative or superior success. Do you?
Steve

The Recession Is Over--No Thanks To Stimulus

Interesting article on the Economy and Stimulus by two economists. See why the stimulus was more political than economically successful.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/14/larry-summers-recession-recovery-opinions-columnists-wesbury-stein.html?partner=popstories
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein senior economist at First Trust Advisors

Soldiers - Say Thanks

Xerox and a charity step up for something nice for our troops. Great job, the kid's designs are adorable. Let everyone know.

Jim Rohm Passed Away December 5th

Jim Rohm was one of the great teachers in the self improvement networks. He was successful because he wanted his listeners, his readers and his guests to succeed like he had. Actually he would have rejoiced if you became more successful than himself. He wanted everyone to develop all their gifts. Here is the tribute at Jim Rohm's website.

http://tribute.jimrohn.com/

God bless,
Steve Amos

The 10 Questions You Should Never Stop Asking

Turnaround Tactics

 Really good article for anyone managing, developing strategy or entrepreneurs.
Steve

http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/20/ten-key-questions-entrepreneurs-management-kramer.html?partner=popstories

Political Uncertainty Puts Freeze on Small Businesses

Very Good Wall Street Journal Article about why small businesses are not hiring or may be laying off. Think this is a common reason businesses are not taking advantage of the economy to expand market share. The uncertainty of the new health care costs, increasing taxes in 2010 when the Bush tax cuts expire, and political new taxes like Cap and Trade are causing businesses to hold on to cash. The recovery may be slow in the current situation until some direction is clearly coming from Washington.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125659324579108943.html
The leaders who can see a way to expand their businesses will be rewarded when the recession ends. How can you affordability grow your business market share now? Your customers will thank you.
Steve Amos

Energy prices have resumed rising

The price of oil is going up and there are several questions why.Oil storage are full and full tankers are sitting outside our harbors. Due to supply, prices should be falling.

In the back of everyone mind should be the situation in Iraq. The nuts running Iraq want to dominate the middle east, and really believe they can bring their mullah back from the 13th century by destroying infidels (Israel) and spreading their religion throughout the world. Russia is not supporting sanctions against Iraq, and may force Israel to attack. If that happens Iraq will mine the waterways and trap 25% of oil tankers from reaching the West. Needless to say prices should spike if this happens.

Add to that US government spending tripling our debt without any job creation. The value of the dollar is falling by design which also drives up prices of commodities. They believe it will make us able to export more, but they have not eased regulations on small businesses. Add to that small businesses are afraid what will happen with the health care bill. No wonder the economy is slow. This does not even include banks and businesses deleveraging, nor consumers reducing spending over job fears and increasing savings.

No wonder oil went from $65 to $80 in the last eight weeks. Gold has crossed $1,000 per ounce and is still rising. The dollar is still easing. Do not see anything stopping these trends in the next six months, or until the Iraq situation and health care is resolved. I bought ETF's in Gold at $950 and Oil at $65 because I expected the dollar to fall.
Steve

PS - see current MarketWatch article below about oil prices.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-falls-as-api-reports-rise-in-crude-supplies-2009-10-21

Barnes and Nobel Competes

You have to admire what Barnes and Nobel is doing these days. In a weakening economy they have chose to compete. Amazon had better look over its shoulder.

• Barnes and Nobel are offering free electronic readers for use to download. You can read electronic books on PC’s, Mac’s, iPhones, iPod touches, and Blackberries. They even give you a few classic books to get you started.
•  College textbooks are offered up to a 30% discount and with free shipping. Really important in September and January.
• B&N offer free Wi-Fi in their stores, especially the ones with a Starbucks. There is no decrease in books on the shelves, and the stores in Socal are all orderly.
• The membership program is still active with healthy discounts on books.

Would not be surprised to see them sell Sony’s reader to take more share from Amazon Kindell. Would be a natural partnership for Sony.

 

In short it is good to see well run companies innovate.
Steve

 

9/11 showed us who we can be

A very good article about the grace and warmth of people after a disaster. We are much more caring and helpful than people believe. This is from the LA Times.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-solnit11-2009sep11,0,5396972.story

Actually went to dig up the original article, and think the LA Times article was more focused (i.e. better). Here it is
Rebecca Solnit, 9/11's Living Monuments
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175112/rebecca_solnit_9_11_s_living_monuments

Sorry the links are not working. Copy and paste into your browser. You may have to search www.latimes.com to find the title article.

Know we are meant to be better than the self center children we started out to be. Amazing how much better we can be.
God bless,
Steve

Tough Tech Rugged Gear That Can Survive Almost Any Calamity

A fun article for your Labor day about technology that is not fragile, but meet a MIL spec for strength and durability. Fortunately my job does not require these tools.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/170706/tough_tech_rugged_gear_that_can_survive_almost_any_calamity.html?tk=nl_wbx_t_topstoryn

You may have to go to PCworld.com and search for the article title Tough Tech

After you peruse the high priced I really don't need its, go to the Essential (and Cool) Laptop Gear article to see laptop gadgets like the PLANon DocuPen Color Scanner RC805 and other elite tech gear you probably don't need... :)

http://www.pcworld.com/article/170418/essential_and_cool_laptop_gear.html

Have a great Labor day! I have to get back to working on finding more work.
Steve Amos

A peek into the future

Good article about the near future of technology.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover6-2009sep06,0,6494829.story
Copy and paste or just search "A peek into the future"

I love predictions. It is amazing how wrong we get them. Yet is it shows how we are trying to solve problems all the time.

Wireless electricity seems like a side effect failure, but there are great places to use it. Especially how difficult it is to run some wires. RUF seems too costly. There is a better chance for cars to use other software technologies which do not require the infrastructure.

N + 3 Aviation and Nanotechnology do seem like the future. There is a tremendous need for both of these technologies.

Just my guess about these technologies. What is yours?
Steve Amos

Health Care Analysis NY Times

Have been watching the health care debate with interest. The truth is we have had free health care provided in Los Angeles for 8 days, and the demand is immense.

We also have unemployed who can not afford the Cobra coverage provided by the company, and companies who can not afford the cost to keep all employees with high insurance prices.

I am not assured that changing the debate to health insurance care is correct. Most insurance companies work hard to keep prices affordable and I have never had any trouble beyond filling out the form.

I also see No cost containment, nor limiting litigation liabilities in the House bill. Frankly there is no sense the government is going to not expand spending tremendously beyond the initial plans.

What I would like is portability of my plan, and preexisting conditions covered. As far as what is politically possible, I really enjoyed reading intelligent commentary. I recommend:

A Public Option Isn’t a Curse, or a Cure
By RICHARD THALER
August 15, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/business/economy/16view.html?hpw

Copy and paste the link in your browser,
Steve Amos

Manufacturing Recovery?

Forbes has a good article by Joshua Zumbrun on the state of manufacturing. Needless to say my industry has been hard hit by the recession. Unemployment is up 17% in manufacturing.

However signs of a bottom are occurring. The average workweek in the sector rose from 39.4 hours to 39.8 hours from June to July. This has been falling for about a year. In addition, only 52,000 more people joined me in job hunting for manufacturing jobs. Needless to say, if it is you it feels worse.

The cash for cars program may actually get some manufacturing to increase next month. However, that should be only a short shot, and the cars that would be sold later are just coming sooner.

Read the article from the link below, and you will see the mixed message. But the trend is getting better.
Steve
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/06/manufacturing-recession-unemployment-business-beltway-manufacturing.html

PS - Forbes is known for changing links, so you may have to search for "Manufacturing Recovery?" or Joshua Zumbrun

Microsoft Marketing and Advertising

John Dvorak has a very good article commenting on Microsoft’s advertising. (See link below) His main point is Microsoft is only advertising for lowest price versus Apple. Microsoft doesn’t sell laptops, they sell software. This is a recipe for disaster. Low price means low margins. It also means low respect and lower profits.

I much preferred the ads with the kids and adults showcasing their talents on a PC. “I am a PC” was that slogan. It at least showed why you want a PC.

Not sure the advertising was working. Apple makes superior hardware with software that is convenient to use. Look at how easy it is to integrate your iPhone and iPod with your Mac. All these affordable apps make owning and synchronizing multiple machines easy so your time is productively spent.

Now Microsoft is no slouch in software. Apple is now able to make us of multi-core chips. Microsoft developed this capability with multi-core chips three years ago (more or less). Second the biggest U.S. gains in productivity came when businesses starting using Microsoft Windows machines with Office. How many businesses have not used this combination? Microsoft is still superior for large corporations. Their server and pc software is productive to manage for IT. They improve and service their customers well. Updates are ready regularly to keep your computer safe and sound.

Microsoft is not the greatest innovator for software. Others often came up with ideas how to use computors. Microsoft is the integrator of software supreme. Buy what you need, and Microsoft will take care of you. Really when you look at their marketing for many years they were leaps ahead of any competitors. Who else would a business work with?

When Microsoft focuses on business benefits and advantages for small pc owners and business they market successfully. What advantages? How about more programs for any purpose available. Why does Apple offer programs to mimic Windows? Because you can’t get everything for a Mac. My business card scanner is one application that won’t transfer to a Mac. In fact even though Apple offers compatible programs to Office, most small business owners will buy Office for the Mac just to make sure.

Let’s get back to your business. How are you Marketing and Advertising Your Business? Are you showcasing your advantages and benefits for your customers? Let’s focus on benefits. It is not you offer a product or service, it is how the customer benefits from buying your product or using your service. This is what you have to do for your marketing to succeed.

Also check out John Dvorak’s good article. Very good read.
Steve

Apple vs. marketing on 'best price'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-vs-marketing-on-best-price

The Bernanke Market

More commentary By ANDY KESSLER in the Wall Street Journal. Favorite line in the article: "But I think what really bothers the market is that the structural problems that got us into trouble in the first place still exist."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124762005061042587.html

Happy reading,
Steve

The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

An interesting analysis of the economy and commentary by MORTIMER ZUCKERMAN. My favorite line of the article: " So what kind of second-act stimulus should we look for? Something that might have a real multiplier effect, not a congressional wish list of pet programs. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html

Happy reading,
Steve

How About a Real Stimulus Plan?

Washington is now talking about another Stimulus Package. The problem is the current one has not spent the money necessary to stimulate the economy. Only 10% of the pork laden bill has been spent.

How many permanent jobs will the bill create anyway? Aren’t GAO estimates we are spending $600,000 per job created? You could give away money cheaper. Let’s not forget what this is going to cost us. Consumers eventually pay all taxes.

To create jobs we need to focus on manufacturing domestically. Businesses grow from creating real value. Services and finance grow from these bases.

Stop the Cap and Trade nonsense. It will export more jobs than create jobs. Climate change occurs naturally. Temperatures have not gone up in the last ten years. That disproves the theory that CO2 will increase temperature. Remember, temperature was much higher millions of years ago. Wasn't that the natural temperature we should go back to?

How about limiting litigation costs by capping awards? That would lower medical costs. Even better lower the costs of government regulations. Make filling out forms and information simpler for reporting. How about simplifying tax regulations so we can concentrate on serving customers?

For more jobs we need nuclear power and domestic oil production to lower our energy costs. I am okay with alternatives, but these are the lowest cost energy for transportation and electricity. What regulations have to change to allow investment?

Government building infrastructure is a worthwhile investment, but central governments do not respond quickly to needs. Government needs to be neutral to the market, or we export more jobs which slows the economy.

Let’s stop government from ruining our economy and stimulate real growth.
Steve

Advice from an Economist Who Saw 1929

Interesting article in Time commenting on the actions (stimulus) the government is taking. Good read.
Steve

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1909115,00.html?xid=rss-biztech-yahoo

Plastic Molders Predict Increasing Oil Prices and Report Market Conditions

Interesting report by Injection Molding magazine that covers a prediction the price of oil will be in the 90's or 100's again by the end of the year. Notable is the recommendation manufacturers convert to all electric molding machines to save energy costs.

It also reports every market using plastic injection is down except medical products. It is an interesting read on the economy by Lisa M. Pellegrino
Steve

http://www.plasticstoday.com/imm/articles/MEI0709

Oil falls for second week as demand worries return

This article comments on the falling demand versus the falling dollar. Oil is in an interesting position.
Steve

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-rise-above-70-in-asia-trade

Maxwell: Oil Price Forecast

Energy expert Charles Maxwell notes that because of the recession, oil supply and demand are in balance, but down the road there will not be enough supply.

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?wid=4022&t=3&scode=009597

My conclusion, there will be more demand for domestic and international drilling starting in 2012. This may hurt President Obama's reelection campaign since the energy policy has been discouraging more drilling.
Steve

Adapt to Change – or You May Be Left Behind

Laura Rowley has a good article on change. The best advice comes from a company with 50 years of growth. Listen to the customers. Change when the customer needs something.
Listen. Change. Two actions for us to take today.

Read the article here on Yahoo Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/171226

Are Oil Prices Going to Continue to Rise?

Friday the market price closed at $72.25 per barrel. The price of a barrel of oil has increase 17% in the last month. Four months ago the price per barrel was around $36. Here in California, gas prices have zoomed from $2.25 per gallon to $2.85 per gallon. Just in time for the driving summer season. What is happening?

First of all, oil went too high when it zoomed past $100 to $147 per barrel. There was no economic justification for oil going up so high. Speculators drove the market too high has everyone had to buy oil to make some money. When everyone is buying the same thing, you are nearing the peak price.

Oil usage dropped rapidly as gas cost over $4 per gallon. Mileage driven went down as people drove less, bought better mileage cars or took the public transit. This is a permanent change in behavior, and lowered usage more. Of course oil supplies rose. Then the price per barrel over-corrected into the 30’s. This happened despite cuts in production by OPEC. Demand fell faster due to a global recession.

But there are multiple situations affecting price. Developing countries like China and India are buying more cars. Oil stocks have fallen to normal levels. Bio-fuels have risen to be roughly 6% of consumption. Politically the Obama administration is not supporting drilling more oil domestically. Lower prices let that slide by without much political pressure, but I expect that to be a mistake as usage will increase worldwide. The energy alternatives for the green energy do not replace oil however. They generate electricity.

OPEC desires stability. They realize now too high of prices can stall the global economy reducing demand which ruins their economies. They recently increased production about 0.5% to stabilize demand.

So what is driving the price increases? The amount of money the government is borrowing and the policies of the treasury to fight the recession. The dollar is under pressure due to the debt levels and the value of the dollar will fall as the economy recovers. The Chinese and OPEC are looking to protect themselves by diversifying away from the dollar.

So what is my prediction? Oil will stay in the $50 - $80 range this year. Expect this bubble to deflate a bit by August. $3 per gallon gas is too big of a drag on the US economy to help the global economy recover. Second this should be a slow economic recovery. Oil usage is starting at a lower consumption rate for 2009 and 2010.

Long term the falling value of the dollar will be inflationary. US energy policies with global warming taxes will hurt energy independence for the next ten years. It will be cheaper to import oil than produce it domestically. Unless an energy break through occurs, expect oil prices to rise in the years 2011 - 2013.
Steve Amos

The Myth of the Rational Buyer

How Too Much Thinking Can Hurt Your Brand

BY Mark Dziersk

Fast Company blog

A wonderful question is conventional marketing hurting sales. What if the best thing is to market emotionally to your customers. After all, what are you offering them?

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/mark-dziersk/design-finds-you/myth-rational-buyer-how-too-much-thinking-can-hurt-your-brand

The truth is often simpler. People want what works, looks good, and give pleasure by doing what it is suppose to. How can product development be easier.

Celebrities Share Secrets of Success

Great article about a Fox News special on how to succeed. The ten rules are spot on for business and your life. Please read...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,521421,00.html

Watch “Secrets of Success,” hosted by Uma Pemmaraju on Sunday at 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. EDT.

Search the title if the link does not work
Steve

Here is part of the article:
"Here is a list of some of the common threads they share: lessons they picked up on their own personal journeys towards what they describe as happy and fulfilled lives.

1. How You Think Is Everything. — Learn to visualize success and not failure. The phrase "You are what you think" is a powerful idea. Don’t listen to the voices that are pulling you down -- you can’t spend all your time trying to win over your critics. Run your own race.

2. It's Not About the Money — Material things are the results of success, but are not success itself. It’s great having a nice home, a six-figure salary or luxury vacations, but success isn’t measured by the dollars. It’s measured by how satisfied you feel.

3. Goals, Goal, Goals — Remember that goals must be meaningful and personal; otherwise, you won’t be inspired to achieve them.

4. Great Expectations — For something desirable to happen, you must want the event to happen, firmly believing it will occur and expecting it to take place.

5. To Fail Is to Succeed — Failure pushes you to levels you never dreamed of, and can open doors you never thought possible. See failure as a life lesson for what works and what doesn’t.

6. Dream Big — Never be afraid to follow the dreams of your heart. It’s the fuel for success. Your dreams give you the energy and inspiration to aim for an authentic life.

7. Take Responsibility — Stop expecting things to just happen without action. You need to take action to reach your goals, without blaming others for bumps or setbacks you may find along the way. Own the choices you make: Be a victor, not a victim.

8. Positive, Not Negative — If you are passionate about your dreams and goals, you’re likely to attract people who will want to support and help you. Call on them when you need encouragement or guidance.

9. Never Stop Learning — Read books, take classes, take the time to learn all you can about things that excite, motivate or inspire you. Never lose that sense of wonder or curiosity when it comes to seeking more knowledge.

10. Belief in a Higher Power — Regardless of your religion, develop a strong sense of faith in God and have a daily attitude of gratitude for what you have in this life. Believe that there is a divine purpose to your life and know that there is power in prayer."

Game Changer Pocket-Sized Robot Could Change Urban Warfare

Here is a perfect example of a game changer innovation. A successful supplier to the US military, iRobot, develops a better product that will revolutionize warfare. This is the type of innovation needed to stay on top of your business.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,520851,00.html

If link does not work, search Foxnews for “Pocket-Sized Robot”

How can you change your market today?
Steve

Deregulation versus Regulation Failure

Really good commentary by NIALL FERGUSON on blaming the right source.

"All of these were sins of commission, not omission, by Washington, and some at least were not unrelated to the very considerable political contributions and lobbying expenditures of the financial sector. Taxpayers, therefore, should beware."
Enjoy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17wwln-lede-t.html

Really enjoy reading about economics, the market and will include links in the future.
Steve

Manufacturers have not yet truly embraced what LEAN Six Sigma tells us

Good article at Industry Week. Lean Manufacturing produce to order which is a huge advantage in agility and responding to customers. The US has not fully embraced an advantage we have over suppliers across an ocean. Read "Viewpoint - Industry's New Look" below:

http://www.industryweek.com/articles/viewpoint_--_industrys_new_look_18708.aspx?ShowAll=1

There are also good webinars available on http://www.industryweek.com/
Steve

Businesses Need to Plan for the Recovery

It is about the opportunities, not the problems. We are in a good sized recession, and the uncertainty is making life difficult for business owners and managers. Orders are down as customers order smaller quantities, or no longer have demand for some products. Credit is in short supply, and cash is king.

Even worse is the drumbeat of bad news shouted from the TV, and on front pages of magazines and newspapers. They are trying to scare you to look or listen for better ratings. Hello, this is about the size of the 1982 or 1975 recession. Not the Great Depression 2 or even the end of the world.

Today is not about the fear. Business is about the relationships, especially with the customers. Business is about being better than the competition. Business is about finding our niches, and serving the customer. Business is about making a profit through service.

So what can you do differently to improve profits?

Can you offer 2 for 1? Make twice as much and lower your prices? Develop a low cost version? Add more products to sell to your customers? Redesign dated products? Bundle more services together?

What about when the recession ends? What products or services would you like to develop now to be ready for the next couple years? Who do you need or want on your team? What skills do you need to train your staff to have? Don’t you think this is the best time to prepare?

We have to be careful, but business will go on during and after the recession. Will you be ready?
Steve

Scroll down to Anticipating the Credit Crunch for more ideas to increase profits.

About the Market
Personally I am not ready to declare the bottom of the market, and it may be further off than we would like. However there are reasons to think we are closer to the end than at the beginning. Housing has already corrected about 40% from the peak of the bubble. The Dow has dropped from the $14,000’s to the low $7,000’s. For other hints see Irwin Keller’s article below.


Signs of life
Commentary: The economy's worst may be past
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Feb. 24, 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/evidence-mounts-recessions-worst-past/story.aspx?guid=%7B71467556%2D3683%2D4018%2D906C%2D7FFC8A3F9E8C%7D&dist=TNMostRead

Note Marketwatch Links are soon broken. If the link does not work, go to
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Search for Irwin Kellner

Some businesses think big during the downturn

A great article about the companies that will succeed during and after the recession.

http://www.latimes.com/news/la-fi-expand13-2009jan13,0,4036581.story?track=ntothtml

We all need to think like this,
Steve Amos

Happy 2009!

Everyone is finally over 2008, but the economy is still a concern for most of us. Lets face it, few investors made money last year, and most of us took a substantial loss. At least my 401K has been crunched :( Thank God I am 50% cash right now, and the rest is losing money in stocks. However I focus on long term investments and good companies, so I will survive and recover.

However my predictions for 2009 are not as pessimistic as most of what you read in the media. Most of the worst effects of the recession already occurred in 2008. No one knows what will really happen, but I will make a few economic predictions like I did last year with oil prices. Warning your mileage may vary as I am limited in experience and make lots of mistakes. But it is good to present views for you to think about and analyze.

Recession: We are still going forward with the recession, and businesses are hanging on to money carefully since borrowing is so difficult. I do not expect the recession to grow into a worldwide depression. The news reports comparing us to a depression are vastly exaggerated. Most people have not experienced a serious recession since the early 1980's. We have lived through recessions before, and will survive.

Jobs: If you personally have a good job you may not feel the recession. People who are job hunting or looking for a better position will have to take more time to find a great job, and may have to take a step backward right now. It is just a delay for the good times to come. My prediction is job loses will peak early in 2009, and by the end of the year jobs will start recovering. So if you are job hunting keep persisting.

Stock Market: I suspect we are getting closer to the market bottom. I suspect we are within six months of the bottom. It may take a year, but I am looking for evidence it is time to fully invest again.

Housing: I see no bottom to the real estate market until around 2010. The over supply of home will have to be worked off the market. I expect prices to fall another 5% - 15% in 2009.

Oil prices: This was my best prediction of 2008. On January 17, 2008 I predicted oil prices would peak and fall during 2008. I thought the bubble prices were way out of line at $105 per barrel, and thought oil would fall into the $60 - $80 per barrel by the end of the year and to $40 - $60 per barrel early in 2009. My prediction was based on the long term cost of alternatives to oil were in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. In spite of the gyrations of politics, wars and speculation, I expect prices to stay in the $40 to $60 per barrel range. We might see another over correction with prices falling into the $30's per barrel with the slow economy. There is an oversupply which will be corrected over the long term.

The best advice summary: The best thing you could do is maintain a very positive attitude. This one action will help no matter the crisis's you face, and will help you reach your goals. Heck you may even succeed with your resolutions. Spend some time every morning meditating on what is good in your life, and thank God for everything. Even the challenges and problems you face.

Have a great 2009! I will no matter what.
Steve